The case for firing Glen Gulutzan, Part 2: Process vs. results

(Here is Part 1.)

In the NHL, just under 12% of all regular season games go into overtime. Based on this, the average points per team is just under 92. Setting the bar correctly, that means that evaluating teams by the correct standard is to relate everything to 92 points, not 82 and a .500 record.

The 2016-17 Flames finished the season with 94 points, 12 games over .500, but only two games over the average. The 2017-18 Flames are on pace for 97 points, five games over average. The good news: they are better than average.

The playoffs are played and won at 5v5 and on special teams. Relying on 3v3 overtime is not a good strategy, but it has become the norm for Calgary this year. The Flames have been to overtime 17 times this season, second most in the NHL behind Arizona, and in 30% of all games played. They are truly playing for a tie.

In terms of regulation wins and losses in the regular season, the Flames were 32-33 last season. They were the only team to make the playoffs that was below .500 in that category; no other playoff team was fewer than six games over .500. Two Eastern teams missed the playoffs despite being above .500 in regulation.

This season, the Flames are 20-19 in regulation wins and losses, 16th in the NHL. The Gulutzan Era Flames are just above .500 in regulation, and when you include the playoffs, they are three games below .500.

This season, in terms of regulation wins, the Flames have 20, tied for 18th. Vancouver and Chicago are only one win back at 19. They are 11th in regulation wins in the Western Conference.

Even the worst team in the NHL last season, Colorado, is 24-21, three games over .500 and four regulation wins better.

The Flames were upgraded in the summer. On defense, replacing Dennis Wideman and Deryk Engelland with Travis Hamonic and a re-signed Michael Stone made the defensive core one of the strongest on paper. Up front, the core remained intact, with a few minor changes to the bottom six.

The biggest improvement has been the goaltending. Mike Smith was the biggest question entering the season, but he has done better than anyone could have hoped. The backup question has also been answered: although it took some time to figure things out, David Rittich has save and goals against numbers that are better than Smith’s.

There is little argument that Smith has been an upgrade over Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson. As for the rest of the roster, you may disagree that there have been improvements. What we think does not matter: Brad Treliving believes the roster has been upgraded, so much so he leveraged the future to bring in players he believes can take this team to a better finish in the regular season, and on a playoff run in the spring.

Last season, the Flames finished 45-30-5 for 94 points. They came out of the gate very slow then as they adjusted to Gulutzan’s system. Roughly one-quarter of the season in, they were 8-12-1, and were beginning to show signs of improvement. From that point on, the team ran up a 37-21-3 record, 77 points in 61 games, a 0.631 win percentage. Once the kinks were ironed out, this is the level of play last year’s team was capable of. It translates into a 104-point season.

There is no excuse for a slow start this year; of the core, only Hamonic is new to the system. With the offseason moves, 94 points would be a step backwards. At the very least, this year’s team should be capable of matching the level of play they achieved last season, or 104 points.

If you look at the division, most of the other teams are in a period of decline or rebuild mode. Whether it has been making cap room by moving out players, teams starting the season with key players on injured reserve, or aging players on the decline, only the Flames made significant upgrades. For the most part, things are playing out very close to what should have been expected.

2017-18

Only Los Angeles has shown significant improvement of those in the hunt for a playoff spot. A new coach and improved play following a disappointing season does make this a predictable result. It should not be enough to catch this edition of the Flames.

If we have set the expectations correctly at 104 points, and a 100-point season is what even Gulutzan predicted was possible, then the Flames should be leading the division. To be third of the perceived contenders, and in a dogfight for their playoff lives, is disappointing. A 97-point pace is a step backwards.

And then there was Vegas. That they are in the conversation at all for a playoff spot is the biggest surprise of the year; to be leading the Western Conference is just insane. It has also put a playoff spot in jeopardy for the Flames.

Vegas is on pace for 113 points, a testament to what is possible with solid coaching. At worst, the Flames should be in second, on pace for 104 points and home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. But that was last years team’s potential. Improvements were made. This team should be battling with Vegas for first in the Pacific.

The team is underperforming. Next week, I will look at what is causing the team to be sitting below expectations.