Today, we will evaluate the Calgary Flames’ statistical ‘state’, adding context for their results so far and offering insights for potential 2024-25 second-half predictions. We will look at key team statistics to understand how Calgary is faring against opponents at 5v5, and what this means going forward this season.
Team season totals
There are multiple team metrics we can look at to understand the statistical perspective of the Flames’ results, many of which suggest second-half improvements or inform where the team needs to improve:
- Comparing unblocked shot attempts (Fenwick) to actual goals (GF)
- Comparing shot quality (xGF) to results (GF)
- Giveaways and Takeaways
These ideas may not tell the entire picture of the Flames playstyle or past results, but if the three categories above were positive, Calgary could be a top team in the NHL. We will dive deeper into each idea below.
All data was gathered from NaturalStatTrick and Moneypuck.com
Unblocked shot attempts (Fenwick) vs. actual goals (GF)
As a team, when the hockey game is 5v5, Calgary has out-shot its opponents 335-329 (50.45%). This means that Calgary is trading chances with its opponents in most of its games for strictly shots on goal. This does not make Calgary a good or bad team. To understand Calgary’s shooting trends further, we can look at statistics like Unblocked Shot Attempts, called Fenwick (named after hockey blogger Matt Fenwick).
‘Fenwick’ includes all shot attempts that went unblocked, which means both shots on goal and shot attempts that missed the net are included. In this specific metric, Calgary does better against opponents with a 506-478 (51.42%) lead at 5v5 this season. When comparing this margin to the shots on goal margin, it suggests that Calgary does a better job at out-chancing its opponents, but fails to get as many unblocked shots on target. To unpack this further, we have to look at the actual goals that Calgary scored.
In the 5v5 goals department, this is where Calgary falters, losing 23-31 (42.59%) on the goals ratio. Compared to the other metrics which are above 50% (meaning that Calgary does more/better than its opponents), Calgary has scored 8 fewer goals at 5v5 despite out-shooting and out-chancing teams.
One could infer from this finding that Calgary is bound to score more in the second half because they are out-chancing opponents, but it’s not that simple. Teams that host the best shooters in the NHL are often “luckier” throughout the season because that player scores more than their counterparts regardless of the quantity or quality of their shots (e.g., Brayden Point has scored 9 goals above “expected” this season).
Hockey is a game without a pre-determined outcome, so luck and skill all play a part in player + team success. The stats may think something is unfair, like the Flames out-chancing teams while still getting out-scored at 5v5, but it may not “even out” by the end of the year.
Regardless, we can understand Calgary’s quality of shots in a brief analysis of their Expected Goals.
Shot quality (xGF) vs. results (GF)
There is a hesitancy to trust metrics like Expected Goals because they feel made up and don’t embody what you actually see out there on the ice. If you feel this way, you’re not wrong. People have decided on variables that categorize a shot as having a better/worse chance of being a goal and have built models based on those chosen factors.
The goal here is to neither dismiss the idea of Expected Goals nor neglect any backlash regarding its use for analysis. This article uses Expected Goals as a ‘Shot Quality’ tool to distinguish Calgary’s shots throughout the season compared to making all shots worth the same.
Where metrics like Fenwick above fall short: they value a 40-foot dump-in on net as ‘1 attempt’ AND a missed back-door tap-in as ‘1 attempt’.
Teams like the Carolina Hurricanes are notorious for the number of shots they take from low-danger areas, as these make their stats look great because they often out-chance their opponents, regardless if they shoot hundreds of shots from 40 feet away.
Using a stat like Expected Goals can help us understand if the Flames’ shots are closer to being goals than their opponents’ shots. In 2024-2025 so far, Calgary edges out opponents 28.3-27.4 (50.76%) at 5v5, meaning that Calgary has done better than its opponents this year on shot quality overall.
If we compare this to Fenwick, the average 5v5 Flames unblocked shot attempt this season has a 5.59% chance of going in, whereas an opponent’s average 5v5 unblocked shot attempt has a 5.74% chance of going in. This means that opponents are getting more high quality shot attempts per shot attempt, but Calgary has outdone its opponents when adding up all the chances taken overall this season.
Giveaways and takeaways
The final team statistics we will look at today are Giveaways and Takeaways.
For reference, a takeaway is when a defending player gets possession of the puck by removing it from a player through pressure (sometimes called a forced error), whereas a giveaway is when a player can possess the puck yet the opposing team still gets the puck (unforced error).
There is little evidence of a direct connection between how many times you take the puck away and how much you win hockey games. However, if you take the puck away from opponents more, it doesn’t hurt your chances.
Per Moneypuck.com, Calgary is 5th in the entire league with 172 takeaways. Compared to Tampa Bay, the team with the least takeaways (126), this means that Calgary has retrieved the puck in a hockey game ~50 times more than an opponent, which is fantastic. This is a sign of strong forechecking and off-puck stick abilities, which makes me automatically think of guys like Michael Backlund and Blake Coleman (who happen to have 39 takeaways combined this year).
Furthermore, the “Share of Takeaways” stat looks at how often teams have had the puck taken away compared to their takeaway numbers. Calgary is ranked 14th of 32 teams in this stat, with 50.74% of the takeaway share (172-167). This means that the Flames have taken the puck only 5 more times than it has been taken back. This suggests slightly infuriating hockey to watch, as Calgary Flames players have been stripped of the puck the 9th most times in the league.
Of note, Calgary is 2nd-worst (31st) in the NHL in team giveaways (unforced errors) with 514 this season. The Toronto Maple Leafs only have 406 team giveaways (2nd best). The Leafs average 11.6 giveaways per game, while Calgary averages 15.1. From a coaching perspective, 15 giveaways at 5v5 per game is infuriating, and suggests that Calgary Flames skaters need to do more of the following:
- Keep your feet moving with the puck
- Quicker decision-making when you receive the puck
- Understand where your teammates are when receiving the puck
- Be alert and ready for passes when you don’t have the puck
- Pass with purpose
These sound like minor hockey tips, but they are relevant for all levels of hockey. As a fan of the team, one of the worst things to watch is your team giving the puck away for no reason and the opponents scoring a few seconds later because of that turnover.
In search of a more complete and possession-oriented playstyle, emphasizing some stats like giveaways to a coaching staff would allow the team to reflect on where and why these turnovers are happening, with high-level NHL resources (video tools, etc.) to develop these players into better and more well-rounded hockey players.
Conclusion
In summary, based on team statistical results from the Calgary Flames’ season so far, the following conclusions can be made:
- Calgary has out-shot and out-chanced its opponents to start the year, which is an overall positive
- Calgary is less efficient than opponents at getting shot attempts on target
- Opponents have gotten higher quality unblocked shots on average this year, despite Calgary having higher total quality of all of their shots
- Calgary is one of the worst teams in the NHL for giveaways, averaging 15 giveaways per game at 5v5
- Calgary has had the puck taken away (forced takeaways) nearly the same amount of times they’ve taken the puck away, practically negating the high-level ‘stick play’ abilities of their players
These types of conclusions can inform staff (e.g., video coaches) and players about areas for improvement and development opportunities. The key here is that Calgary is a competitive team, and is currently only 1 point out of a playoff spot, so now is a great time to reflect on what the past stats show and how they can help us reach team goals this season.
For reference, the reason why we primarily look at 5v5 statistics for analysis is that most of the game is played at 5v5, and the best teams at 5v5 are typically the best teams in the NHL by the end of the season.
Going forward this season, insights from these numbers can help us understand more about the statistical state of the Calgary Flames: they are competitive, and may continue to out-chance opponents regardless of the score this season. This suggests exciting hockey to watch for fans, which is a great sell for a team that may have not been expected to compete for a playoff spot by some people when we began the year.
Based on what you’ve seen, do you think Calgary can make the playoffs?
Do you think any statistic above is a red herring?
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