With the continued discourse on finding a centre for the Calgary Flames, the discussion has become focused on uncertainty regarding the current options at centre and seeking external additions to better the Flames. When talking strictly at players who play the ‘centre’ position, the following questions were posed:
- Who is definitively a centre? Why are they are centre?
- What makes a good centre?
- What makes a good winger?
For NHL forwards, it feels like many are deployed at centre because of skill, trust, responsibility, among other characteristics that coaches and managers covet. Today, we are going to dive deep into the value of a centre and understand more about the state of being a centre in the NHL, with hopes of better understanding what Calgary has available to them and deciding how important a centre is in the modern NHL.
What the Calgary Flames have
Before understanding what makes a strong centre and potential actions, let’s look at the five main centre options for the Calgary Flames this year from a statistical perspective (stats as through Sunday’s game against San Jose):
Nazem Kadri
Basic Statistics:
- Games Played: 56
- Goals: 20
- Assists: 22
- Points: 42
- Faceoffs: 1,012 (475-537)
- Faceoff %: 46.9%
Advanced Statistics:
- Points per 60: 2.36
- Shots On Goal per 60: 10.64
- Shot Attempts per 60: 20.2
- On-Ice Unblocked Shot Attempt % (Fenwick): 57%
- On-Ice Expected Goals %: 56.2%
It’s hard to find another Nazem Kadri, and this Flames team without Kadri at 1C is significantly worse.
Mikael Backlund
Basic Statistics:
- Games Played: 56
- Goals: 10
- Assists: 12
- Points: 22
- Faceoffs: 1,099 (526-573)
- Faceoff %: 47.9%
Advanced Statistics:
- Points per 60: 1.23
- Shots On Goal per 60: 7.38
- Shot Attempts per 60: 14.87
- On-Ice Unblocked Shot Attempt % (Fenwick): 51%
- On-Ice Expected Goals %: 48%
There are limited players like Mikael Backlund available in the NHL at this point, for his results in a tough role combined with his loyalty and willingness to lead Calgary through a transitional period.
Morgan Frost
Basic Statistics:
- Games Played: 55
- Goals: 13
- Assists: 15
- Points: 28
- Faceoffs: 591 (306-285)
- Faceoff %: 51.8%
Advanced Statistics:
- Points per 60: 1.99
- Shots On Goal per 60: 7.03
- Shot Attempts per 60: 12.64
- On-Ice Unblocked Shot Attempt % (Fenwick): 56%
- On-Ice Expected Goals %: 57.5%
The newly-acquired Frost has brought speed and playmaking to the Flames down the middle so far with previous positive on-ice impacts with Philadelphia this season.
Connor Zary
Basic Statistics:
- Games Played: 41
- Goals: 10
- Assists: 12
- Points: 22
- Faceoffs: 225 (81-144)
- Faceoff %: 36.0%
Advanced Statistics:
- Points per 60: 1.98
- Shots On Goal per 60: 7.72
- Shot Attempts per 60: 15.18
- On-Ice Unblocked Shot Attempt % (Fenwick): 58%
- On-Ice Expected Goals %: 58.5%
When healthy, Connor Zary is an effective NHL player, with high-level on-ice impacts and great energy on offense.
Yegor Sharangovich
Basic Statistics:
- Games Played: 49
- Goals: 11
- Assists: 11
- Points: 22
- Faceoffs: 679 (195-484)
- Faceoff %: 28.7%
Advanced Statistics:
- Points per 60: 1.56
- Shots On Goal per 60: 6.73
- Shot Attempts per 60: 15.16
- On-Ice Unblocked Shot Attempt % (Fenwick): 54%
- On-Ice Expected Goals %: 51.8%
While having played winger in New Jersey and at times in his Calgary tenure, Sharangovich has been deployed at centre significantly this season.
What the Calgary Flames may need
Based on the online discourse and uncertainty regarding what we currently have, there seems to be a desire for Top-6 or Top-9 centre. A popular rumour involves the Flames’ apparent interest in Buffalo Sabres young centres Dylan Cozens, as well as others like Peyton Krebs and Jack Quinn. While Cozens and others are good hockey players and would improve most hockey teams, the strict desire for a ‘centre’ when visualizing these players makes me wary. What is the difference between Morgan Frost and the payment to acquire Dylan Cozens? What makes a good NHL centre?
What does AI think (Centre vs. Winger)?
When you think of the top centres in the league, I would highlight three main traits:
- Play-driving and Offensive Creation
- Defensive responsibility
- Face-offs
While many players hold the ‘centre’ role on their team without all three of these traits, the best centres (e.g., Patrice Bergeron) are effective at both ends of the ice and can win face-offs. If you are not successful at face-offs, yet excel in other areas, it may be difficult to justify deployment at centre, but it is not an essential piece to a centre’s NHL impact and effectiveness.
To further understand the discourse about NHL forward labels, ChatGPT, an AI service which combines information from public sources on the web into articulate statements can give us a comprehensive publicly-written consensus about what makes a good centre vs. a good winger. Among the 9 traits given for each position, here are the top 5 traits of a good centre vs. a good winger (in order):
A Good NHL Centre | A Good NHL Winger |
Face-off Ability | Scoring Ability |
Playmaking & Vision | Speed & Skating |
Defensive Responsibility | Playmaking & Passing |
Skating & Agility | Defensive Responsibility |
Hockey Sense & Awareness | Forechecking & Puck Retrieval |
This is not meant to be understood as gospel, but it does paint a picture of recent historical information on the reputation/idea of a centre vs. a winger. When the list aligns a centre’s face-off ability with a winger’s scoring ability at the very first spot on the priority list, it makes it clear that there are different associations and perspectives on the role and duties of each position.
Types of NHL centres
Now that there is an understanding of positive traits of a NHL centre, the NHL can be divided into groups based on player skills:
Type A: The Elite + Face-offs
e.g., Sidney Crosby, Anze Kopitar, Aleksander Barkov, Auston Matthews
Each of these players have built a reputation for elite ability at both ends of the ice and have demonstrated exceptional face-off statistics. They excel at all areas that define a good NHL centre above.
Acquisition opportunity: Draft
Type B: Good Centres, Excellent Wingers
e.g., Tim Stutzle, Mat Barzal, Tage Thompson, Martin Necas
These players excel in the aspects that make good wingers and are less successful at some areas defined for a good centre (e.g, defensive responsibility, face-off ability), but are not detrimental to their team in those areas while playing centre. Even players like Mitch Marner played centre for multiple years (albeit in junior hockey).
If you did not know what position these players played, you may assume they were wingers based on their playstyles.
Acquisition opportunity: Draft, Trade
Type C: Excellent minus Face-offs
e.g., Jack Hughes, Jack Eichel, Connor Bedard
Each of these players have been deployed at centre throughout their career. However, they have negative face-off impacts to significant margins (e.g., Jack Hughes winning 238 of 636 face-offs this year for 37%). These players influence the game in so many positive ways that their overall play outweighs the negative face-off ability. Similarly, defensive engagement sometimes get called into question for these types of players. These players being significantly below-average at face-offs or defence puts them below the ‘Type B: Wingers’ group.
Acquisition opportunity: Draft
The ‘Above Average’ centre may be between Type C and Type D, depending on one’s perception of an effective centre.
Type D: The Face-off + Defence Specialists
e.g., Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Luke Glendening, Jake Evans, Casey Cizikas
Each of these players bring a drastically different impact when they’re on the ice. In particular, these players’ reputations involve strong defensive play, tenacity, and face-off ability. One could consider these players ‘specialists’ since there are not too many at the NHL level, but new players emerge every so often to occupy the role of strong face-off numbers and energetic defensive play.
Acquisition opportunity: Free Agency, Trade
The ‘Average’ centre and ‘Below Average’ centre may be between Type D and Type E, depending on one’s perception of an effective centre.
Type E: Bottom-Six Body-Bumpers
e.g., Brandon Duhaime, Sam Carrick, Barclay Goodrow, Michael Eyssimont
These types of players are listed as centres on the NHL website, despite taking few face-offs. The group above has taken a combined 261 face-offs (34, 57, 154, 16) in 218 combined games so far this season (57, 57, 52, 52).
These types of players do not meet the Top-5 AI criteria for centres but operate as play-neutralizers due to their on-ice engagement in all three zones and overall physicality that winning teams covet (especially as we approach the playoffs).
While there are not unlimited players in the NHL of this type, there are multiple options out there each year for teams to acquire at (typically) fair costs compared to other types of centres.
Acquisition opportunity: Free Agency, Trade
The Flames’ current options
With these traits and groups in mind, let’s reflect on what the Flames have:
Nazem Kadri
- Great on-ice impacts, shooter and playmaker, below average on face-offs
- Possible Type: Type B (Good Centre, Excellent Winger)
- Face-offs/defensive game is not detrimental to team
Mikael Backlund
- Fair on-ice impacts, on-ice neutralizer via skill, below-average face-offs this season
- Possible Type: Average centre or Type D: Face-off/Defensive Specialist
- Intangible and leadership qualities are essential to the current Flames roster, elevating Backlund’s value
Morgan Frost
- Excellent on-ice impacts, playmaker that can shoot, above average on face-offs
- Possible Type: ‘Above Average’ centre between Type C and Type D
Connor Zary
- Excellent on-ice impacts, playmaker that shoots, not successful on face-offs
- Possible Type: bordering Type C: Excellent minus Face-offs
- On-ice impacts out-weigh face-off results
Yegor Sharangovich
- Good on-ice impacts, player who can shoot and can make plays, significant issues on face-offs
- Possible Type: ‘Below Average’ centre between Type D and Type E
Of note, within the next 2-3 years, players like Rory Kerins, Samuel Honzek, Luke Misa, or Trevor Hoskin may not be put into top-9 NHL centre roles, so I do not foresee those internal options contributing to the Flames’ perceived centre ‘issue’. Obtaining a high-end player via future NHL drafts who can play centre may take upwards of 3-5 years of development prior to NHL impact as well, although there are some exceptions in recent years (e.g., Wyatt Johnston at 23rd overall to Dallas in 2021).
Pacific Division Centre Depth
For reference, here are the Top 3 centres in each Pacific Division team’s depth chart (as of Feb. 25):
- Anaheim Ducks: Ryan Strome, Leo Carlsson, Isac Lundestrom
- Calgary Flames: Nazem Kadri, Mikael Backlund, Morgan Frost
- Edmonton Oilers: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
- Los Angeles Kings: Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield, Phillip Danault
- San Jose Sharks: Macklin Celebrini, Alex Wennberg, Nico Sturm
- Seattle Kraken: Matty Beniers, Chandler Stephenson, Shane Wright
- Vancouver Canucks: Elias Pettersson, Filip Chytil, Pius Suter
- Vegas Golden Knights: Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl, Brett Howden
When considering the teams that the Flames play the most throughout the hockey season, Calgary is faring okay on the centre depth. I do see a gap between teams like the LA Kings’ depth and our own, but considering a lot of those names listed were acquired via high draft picks, we do see the reality of our situation when looking to ‘add’ a high-level centre.
The upcoming off-season’s potential free agent brief
Top-6: Mikael Granlund, Claude Giroux
Top-9: Yanni Gourde, Christian Dvorak
Bottom-6: Radek Faksa, Tomas Nosek
Are you uncertain/uncomfortable going forward with Kadri-Backlund-Frost (Zary, etc.) now? Is a 2024-25 mid-season trade important? Comment your ideal future Flames’ centre depth and thoughts below.
Conclusion
From an NHL standpoint, are you born (drafted) or raised (deployed) a centre? Or both?
What may have begun as being the best player on your youth hockey team, which allowed many good hockey players to play centre for the bulk of their youth/junior careers, is not the same as today’s NHL. Playing for an NHL club along with the other ‘best’ players from their youth teams means that coaches will be deciding between high-level players on who to deploy at centre, potentially preventing you from being a full-time centre (sometimes out of your control).
It begs the question of whether acquiring a centre matters or if simply acquiring/developing good hockey players is the ideal avenue toward an NHL club’s success. Bringing in a hockey player to strictly be a centre, aside from face-off ability or high-level offence (which isn’t exclusive to centres) seems like a future disappointment.
In the case of Morgan Frost, this is an opportunity for him to both demonstrate his ability to win face-offs better than any Flames ‘centre’ outlined in this article (statistically) and provide some offence. As we’ve broken it down today, this seemingly justifies the Frost trade as an acquisition for the label of ‘centre’, whereas other players in the Flames’ rumour mill don’t boast the same face-off/centre abilities that we’ve described as important to the role of ‘centre’.
Of note, players can improve their face-off ability throughout their career, even if it may seem like a mystery to how good face-off-takers succeed (it often gets boiled down to small technical adjustments and a combination of the strongest or quickest centre winning the most draws).
All in all, the focus on the label of ‘centre’ or ‘top-six centre’ is a distinction that is only truly embodied by a select few high-level NHL players that are rarely available to acquire outside of the NHL Draft. As cliché as it sounds, the Flames should be looking for players who can improve the hockey club and can be part of future years of successful Flames teams, regardless of position.
If we broaden our view as fans to look at the Flames’ current centre options as well as avoid discounting players labelled as wingers, we can better reflect on the current makeup of the Flames and understand that we may be in a privileged situation going forward compared to our competitors.
Sponsored by bet365:
