At 34 years old, Nazem Kadri is hitting the back end of an NHL career that includes a Stanley Cup championship with the Colorado Avalanche, two 30-goal seasons, and two seasons with at least 75 points, including last year with the Calgary Flames. Playing with the rookies Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil, he found his scoring stride and turned the top line of a struggling Flames team into a genuine threat to their opponents.

This year, with Calgary icing a lineup that’s not viewed with as much strength as it was prior to the 2023-24 season (despite their hot start), the Flames need Kadri to be even more of a leader than he was last season, both on and off the ice. He scored 29 goals and 46 assists for 75 points in 82 games, and his shooting percentage wasn’t even the highest of his career. Those 75 points come second only to his 87-point season in Colorado.

It’s hard to play much better than Kadri did last season, but it feels like the only way to exceed expectations is to play to the same level or even better than 2023-24. Will it take a lot of work and even some luck with linemates and chemistry? Yes. But if one player can generate plenty of opportunities for himself and his teammates offensively while being responsible defensively, it’s Kadri. If he can score goals like this in the upcoming season in combination with one of his two projected linemates, Andrei Kuzmenko, the Flames will be just fine.

So, what does “exceeding expectations” look like from a statistical standpoint? Anywhere from a point per game with 30-35 goals feels like the sweet spot, especially considering he started with rookie Samuel Honzek on his line while Yegor Sharangovich nurses an injury. Honzek is now on injured reserve (but expected back soon), but Kadri is responsible for being a leader in that locker room to help a player like Honzek get acclimated to the NHL, just as he did Zary. Hopefully, for the Flames, that will result in just as many, if not more, points as last season.

For Kadri, meeting expectations can take several forms, whether that’s meeting the expectations of his contract value or the expectations relative to last season’s form.

Regarding how Flames fans feel, the likely expectation is for Kadri to score as many points as he scored last season. He could get away with scoring less depending on the context of his situation with linemates and how often they change, but on a team that needs scoring, he has to be the guiding light.

Everyone knows how skilled Kadri still is and the value he can provide with and without the puck. Unless his performance drops drastically, he will be the first-line centre and receive close to 19 or 20 minutes a game. He has the complete trust of head coach Ryan Huska to lead off the ice and be an example. Now, the central part of the equation is consistency.

In the goals department, that’s been a theme throughout Kadri’s career. He has hit at least 20 goals each time through the last three seasons and was halted from scoring 20 the two years prior due to the COVID-19-shortened seasons. But since hitting the age of 30, he has been consistent in his goal production, and to meet expectations, he’ll need another year of 25 or more (with double-digit power-play goals) and enough assists to finish around 70 points.

The task shouldn’t be hard if he can continue making plays like this.

Being below expectations, Kadri would look more like his first season in Calgary than any other season in his career. After signing his massive deal in the off-season to try and lead this Flames group to the promised land from whence he came, he managed to play a full season. However, those 82 games comprised under 25 goals and fewer than 60 points, which is not an acceptable output for him at this juncture.

Of course, it has taken him and other big-name superstar forward Jonathan Huberdeau time to get acclimated, but that year was an extreme disappointment. Kadri returning to that point range would be a catastrophe for him, his value, and the team.

Some of that production dip was no fault of his own, and Kadri’s shooting percentage that season sat at nine, one of the lowest totals of his career to this point. But on the surface, it was almost as disappointing as a new signing could be in his first year with a team (Huberdeau’s fall off from his final year in Florida to first in Calgary was worse).

If Kadri doesn’t contribute the assist numbers and his goal total doesn’t shoot through the roof, the Flames will be in big trouble.

Despite how young the team is getting and the new faces moving into roster spots, some older forwards have large roles and are expected to produce. Kadri is one of them. His three seasons before this one embody the idea of exceeding, meeting, and sitting below expectations, with Colorado being the best of the best, his first year in Flames Red being below average, and last season hitting the mark on the money.

With an influx of new players making their way into spots via training camp and other team-oriented competitions, Kadri must build upon the foundation he has laid and be responsible for helping even more new names acclimate to life in the NHL, even if they only play every game or two.