On Thursday night, the Calgary Flames made a trade sending Jakob Pelletier, Andrei Kuzmenko, a 2nd round pick, and a 7th round pick to the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for Joel Farabee and Morgan Frost.

Morgan Frost is a natural centre. He comes in at 6′, 192 lbs and is a left shot. The Flyers drafted him in the first round, 27th overall, back in 2017. He played four seasons for the Soo Greyhounds producing two 100 point seasons along the way. Frost adapted to the NHL quickly after graduating to pro hockey – ending up playing just 65 games over two seasons in the AHL.

(CF%, HDCF%, xGF% from NaturalStatTrick.com – 5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted)

Let’s start with shot locations, move into quality of chances generated, and talk about his power play prowess.

This is where Frost has been shooting the puck from this season (via HockeyViz.com). He really tries to get open in the middle lane of the attacking zone and prioritizes getting shots from below the hashmarks. Calgary’s attack leaves that area quite vacant – an area Frost could possibly help right away. He has a projection that shows he should have consistent 20+ goal potential.

Graph translation: Red is a line that is determined by the chances generated by Frost. The black line tracks actual, tangible production. If the black line is above the red line (grey area) it signifies more scoring than expected chances created – a sign of a better ability to finish off goals. If the black line falls below the red line it shows a struggle to put the puck in the net.

One thing we love to see is the upward trajectory of the draft – showing as he’s gained experience he has used it to improve his ability to generate quality shots and chances. Frost isn’t coming here billed as a shooter though – his real talent is in his play-making ability.

It has been fairly limited, but after Darryl Sutter came through Calgary I got a real understanding in the impact certain coaches can have on players production. John Tortorella is a polarizing coach that demands quality defensive play out of every roster player – even if it comes at the cost of truly showing off your natural talents. There’s a good chance under Ryan Huska Frost could find a new gear and really take off. He’s going to be given a lot of opportunity.

(Reference Chart A)

The actual chance generation year over year has not been exceptional. We can see he does prioritize getting close to the net when he does get a chance. It would be reasonable to suspect the offensive impact improving if given more freedom to operate without fear of demotion or a scratch. Calgary just invested significant capital in acquiring him, it’s not completely off the table but there will likely be a hefty grace period as he adjust to how Calgary plays their game.

Personally I love seeing a lack of shots from the point in my centres. They are in support low in the attacking zone and these show Frost has learned that as well.

He has also shown when he’s been allowed to be free from defensive restraints to be quite productive – we can see that in his powerplay numbers. The last three seasons the Flyers have a much better power play with Frost on the ice – 16 percentage points in 2023-24 (referencing xGF/60)

(Reference Chart B)

The right side of this chart is the specific power play section from Evolving-Hockey.com. The chance generation (middle blue bar) is well above acceptable – the only thing Frost struggles with is the thing the Flames also have been struggling with – actually scoring enough goals to match his output in what he generates.

Rather than posting the same charts multiple times I left notes of reference below the two from the prior section worth touching on here.

The offence may be a struggle, but John Tortorella did one thing with Frost quite well. He turned him into a smart, defensively reliable pivot. Now I’m sure it never quite got to the point he was happy with – hence them moving Frost to Calgary in the first place – but that does not diminish how much that will matter going forward. The new coach can focus on getting the offence out of a former 100 point junior scorer with two 40 point NHL seasons to his name.

My original analysis on X was that Frost “looked more like a Backlund than a Monahan.” After a few days of review I think he has a bit of both in him. He certainly will learn a lot from Backlund in how to remain competitive and consistent well into your career and he can take some offensive tips from Kadri too. His defensive contributions and ability should translate very well into how Calgary approaches their forecheck and neutral zone play.

One little caveat to all this is the fact he was sheltered in his usage. This season alone (5v5) he has 130 offensive zone starts in comparison to just 33 defensive zone starts. He does, however, win over 50% of his draws consistently. A skill I believe gets better with each player as time passes.

While good at 5v5 I’m not sure I would make him a primary penalty killer. Giving him a primarily offensive based role could really spark that last match he needs to get going.

Frost is a quality piece coming back to the Flames. He projects to be a top 6 centre for them for the foreseeable future. With the increased opportunity i expect an increase in production. Frost hitting a 20 goal, 60-70 point season is not out of the cards, but we know even at his base level he can produce 15-30-45. They will get reliable production to replace two roster spots that had never produced like this yet (Pelletier) or just couldn’t get it together (Kuzmenko).

Don’t be scared to get your #16 Frost jerseys – the C of Red will love him.