Trade deadline: All bets are off — go big or go home

Considering the Calgary Flames are just as likely to miss the playoffs as they are to make any noise in them, Monday’s trade deadline is going to be an interesting one.

General manager Brad Treliving could be a buyer, a seller, or a bystander on what should be a very busy afternoon in the NHL.

Deals are already trickling in and talk about the big fish is heating up across the internet, in the underbellies of the rinks, and on all the media channels. But with all the parity in the league, it’s difficult to determine what path makes the most sense for so many teams outside the obvious contenders and cellar dwellers.

No team is more puzzling than the Flames, who aren’t sharing details on their still-injured star goaltender but may just be turning the corner of desperation heading into the stretch.

If they choose to sell a piece or two to replenish their very bare draft-pick cupboards, they could get a decent return for a defenceman with term left on his contract. Michael Stone would be the fans’ choice if that was to happen, but T.J. Brodie has significantly more value on the market.

Because of the depth the Flames organization has on the blueline, Treliving could justify the departure of Stone for futures without having to answer questions on why he’s giving up on the season. Not so with Brodie, however, because as deep as the team appears to be at that position, you don’t cough up a top-four defenseman at the most critical stage of what you believe is a run to the playoffs.

Kris Versteeg is skating with his teammates again, but he’s unlikely to play before the deadline, so the impending UFA’s Stanley Cup experience and powerplay skills should be a critical piece of the Flames’ stretch drive.

The team’s woes on the powerplay have improved recently thanks to the hot stick of Matthew Tkachuk. But the numbers plummeted after Versteeg was injured, and still rank a meagre 23rd with an 18.5% success rate on the year. A boost in that area could be the difference between third place in the Pacific, a wild card spot, or missing altogether.

Sam Bennett is being asked about by teams kicking tires on the Flames, but if they’re so inclined, giving up on a 21-year-old fourth overall draft pick can wait until the summer when there is a broader market and opposition GMs aren’t attempting to buy low on the converted winger whose biggest challenge is letting his instinct on the ice override his overactive brain.

He did that on the first line in Arizona, and Bennett may stick with Johnny Gaudreau on the top line for the foreseeable future with Micheal Ferland slumping and getting back to his roots on the third line.

So maybe the Flames aren’t sellers after all.

But given their inconsistent play, and president of hockey ops Brian Burke’s very public stance against adding rentals at high costs, they’re just as unlikely to be buyers in the traditional sense, either. Everyone knows they could use a right-winger (or two) to add some scoring punch, and they have some good prospects that might help bring in that kind of player, but the draft pick deficit the Flames face the next couple of seasons has them in the unenviable position of potentially having to stand pat.

They are without a pick in the first two rounds of this spring’s draft. If they fail to make the playoffs, their third-rounder is gone, too (which would at least mean they get to keep their 2019 second-rounder – or send it to the Islanders to complete their Travis Hamonic deal). If Michael Grabner goes for a prospect and a second-rounder, what will bigger name fellow UFAs Rick Nash and Evander Kane go for?

Given all of these factors, Vegas oddsmakers — if they did such a thing — might set very long odds on the Flames making more than a minor-league deal in the coming days.

But a crafty gambler might want to take those (still not real) odds.

Why?

If the Flames aren’t really buyers, and don’t want to become sellers, they might just be one of the candidates for the rarely-seen “Hockey Deal.”

That’s in quotes and caps because it’s one of the most head-clasping clichés in the league. Every trade is a hockey deal, but the Hockey Deal is one that looks beyond the rentals toward targets with term left on their deals. Something like the salary-cap inspired swap between the Senators and Kings that saw Dion Phaneuf head west for Marian Gaborik.

For the Flames, this could mean moving pieces like Bennett, goalie Jon Gillies, or even a winger not often talked about as potential trade bait, like Ferland, along with one of the prospects or players on defence.

Watch for a blockbuster-type deal no one hears about before it happens, with a roster player saying goodbye and some new blood needing a change coming this way.

A Max Domi and Antti Raanta combination? The Flaming C for Gustav Nyquist? Ryan Hartman heading here from Chicago? Luring Boone Jenner away from the Blue Jackets?

Treliving is working the phones and if there is a safe bet here, it’s that he won’t stop trying to make his team better in any way possible — by acquiring assets or individuals — until the clock runs out.