Realignment and the Flames

 

– image via SportingNews

 

The 2013-14 campaign will be full of changes for the Calgary Flames. In addition to the many, many roster changes for the club, they’ll also be in a new division. After 14 years in the Northwest Division, including one division win and four playoff appearances, the Flames will return to the reformed Pacific Division as part of the NHL’s realignment.
 
But will this new divisional scheme help or hurt the Flames?

From 1998-99 until 2012-13, the Calgary Flames resided in the Northwest Division with some familiar faces. For the first two years, their division-mates were the Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks and Colorado Avalanche. They were joined by the Minnesota Wild in 2000.

Looking at the last three seasons, here’s how the Flames fared against the Northwest:

11-5-0 against the Oilers
11-4-1 against the Avalanche
8-5-2 against the Wild
5-9-3 against the Canucks
 
Overall, the Flames went 35-23-6 against the Northwest over the last three years, accumulating roughly 59% of available points. That’s pretty good. If they got 59% of available points over a full season, that’d put them at around 96 or 97 points (or 56 points in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season). Good enough to make the playoffs most seasons.
 
Under the old scheduling scheme, the Flames played their divisional opponents 24 times, so that points% would translate to 28 points on average.

Starting this season, the Flames are toiling in the Pacific Division. Their six division-mates are split into two groups: old friends (the Oilers and Canucks) and new enemies (Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles and Phoenix). It won’t be a shock to learn that the Flames struggled against some (or all) of their new divisional opponents.

Here’s the last three seasons against each of their Pacific Division foe:
 
11-5-0 against the Oilers
5-9-3 against the Canucks
4-5-2 against the Coyotes
4-5-2 against the Sharks
3-4-4 against the Ducks
3-6-2 against the Kings
 
That’s pretty ugly. The Flames cleaned up against the perpetually terrible Oilers (who are finally poised to take a step out of the basement) and got beat up by everyone else. Keep in mind, this is the pre-rebuild Flames we’re talking about.

Overall, Calgary racked up a 30-34-13 record against the teams that’ll be in the Pacific Division, earning approximately 47% of available points. Over an 82-game schedule, that amounts to around 77 points, or 45 points during the lockout-shortened 2012-13 year. If we take the NHL-worst Oilers out of the equation, their wins total drops to 19 out of 45 games and the points percentage plunges to just (19-29-13) 42%.

Either way, that’s not good enough for the playoffs. It’s not quite “Oilers during the last three or four years” bad, but it’s close.
 
Under the new scheduling scheme, the Flames play 29 games against divisional opponents, and that points percentage (47%) would translate to around 27 points. Let’s drop things back a bit to control for Edmonton’s improvement and the Flames devolvement and assume they’ll be closer to 25 points at best against the Pacific. If the expected playoff cut-off is 10 games over .500 (and that may be underestimating things), they’d need to go 14 games over .500 in their remaining 53 games to make the post-season (roughly 33-19-0).

If you’re somebody who’s hoping that the Flames will be competitive this year and make a run at the playoffs, we’ve got some bad news for you. The roster turn-over will make that a rather steep challenge, and the scheduling and realignment will further stack the deck against the local hockey heroes…
 
There are three dedicated Pacific playoff berths, and then another pair of “at-large” Western Conference berths. Vancouver and San Jose are all good teams coming off good seasons, while LA is elite. The Oilers are not going to be as bad as they were in years past thanks to the development of their kids and under the aegis of new coaching and management. Phoenix and Anaheim will be, at least, fairly competitive. Right now it appears the Flames are the weak sister in the Pacific Division.
 
If you’re hoping for playoff action at the Dome this season, the Hitmen are probably a safer bet. The Flames are in tough. But if you’re hoping for Calgary to continue their rebuilding approach and hope that the youngsters get to battle in close games, the new divisional arrangement may be exactly what you ordered.
 
Now, let’s just hope the Flames can finally win a game in Anaheim.