WWYDW: Should Matthew Tkachuk and Micheal Ferland swap lines?

We’ve been seeing something new, in flashes, as of late: Matthew Tkachuk playing on a line with Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan.

The top line right wing spot was designated for Micheal Ferland at the start of the season, and he’s been delivering far above career expectations, with 13 goals in just 33 games (he had 15 in 76 last season). But Gaudreau and Monahan are two of the top offensive players in the NHL, and Tkachuk is, simply, a better player than Ferland is.

Replacing Ferland with Tkachuk on the top line could be the last step in creating an offensive super line. Or it could be the start of a horrible mistake.

For some context, we’re talking about the two most established lines on the Flames. Gaudreau, Monahan, and Ferland have combined for 321:40 in total 5v5 ice time this season. Tkachuk, alongside Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik, is at 358:00. Both lines have CFs above 55%, but Monahan’s line has been scoring more with more offensive zone starts, while Backlund’s line gets the tougher minutes.

Tkachuk has played all of five minutes alongside Gaudreau and Monahan this season. Ferland has played 3:46 with his fellow Mikes. The numbers are so tiny they aren’t worth looking at: just a note that Monahan’s line continues to get offensive zone starts, and Backlund’s line does not.

That’s what the question posed really comes down to: is it worth giving Tkachuk offensive zone starts with two top scorers, and can Ferland handle a more defensive role?

For Tkachuk, the answer seems obvious: yes. Absolutely. This is a player who recorded 48 points as a rookie despite being fed to the wolves most of the time, starting just 35.02% of his shifts in the offensive zone. That’s a lot of trust to put in any rookie, and Tkachuk more than delivered.

His numbers, however, did fall without Backlund and Frolik. Over the course of 100:37 5v5 minutes without them, he dropped to a 46.56% CF – down from 57.58%, even with a roughly 10% increase in offensive zone starts.

However, Tkachuk wouldn’t be getting 45% zone starts with Gaudreau and Monahan; he’d likely be getting at least 60%, if not higher. He’d be put in a position to score, rather than to defend. And with 20 points in 32 games this season, he’s already third on the team in scoring, behind, well, his potential future linemates.

Not only that, but there’s another factor at play here: contracts. Ferland is a great player, and the Flames have absolutely no reason to want to get rid of him, nor should they. But he’s not Tkachuk. Ferland was re-signed to a two-year deal, and Tkachuk’s entry-level contract runs out in two years, as well. If, for some reason, it comes down to the Flames having to choose between one player or the other, then Tkachuk is the obvious choice. If he clicks with Gaudreau and Monahan, then that could be a first line – made up of a 24-year-old, 23-year-old, and 20-year-old – for another five years.

Ferland is great. He’s also never come within reach of Tkachuk’s rookie scoring. Tkachuk could make the top line beyond deadly, as opposed to just really good.

If this swap is to happen, then the Flames would be counting on Ferland to play in a defensive role. He would likely still get powerplay time, but those offensive zone starts at even strength play would be gone.

Currently, Ferland has a 52.67% CF: a couple of percentage points below Monahan and Gaudreau. He isn’t a driver on the line, but he is a complementary player. He can keep up.

Strip his offensive zone starts down 15 percentage points, though – to where Backlund and Frolik currently are – and does he stay an above-50% CF player? It’s tough to tell. In 2016-17, he was a 49.53% CF player with 50.10% offensive zone starts. In 2015-16, he was 48.75% with 43.37% zone starts. At worst, one could reasonably bet that if he gets more starts in the defensive zone, he at least likely wouldn’t fall too far below 50%.

But that’s ignoring the Backlund factor. Ferland isn’t Troy Brouwer, who can apparently sink anyone; no, he’s a good hockey player. In 2015-16, the two played 144:42 together, and had a combined CF of 55.95% with 43.37% offensive zone starts. Sure, that was two years ago – and the time they’ve played together has since decreased, as has their CF ratings – but there is at least some evidence that Ferland can thrive alongside Backlund, even in a defensive situation.

This is all ignoring a third option – giving Sam Bennett and Mark Jankowski a new winger – which is also certainly a possibility. At the moment, though, if there’s any appetite to take Garnet Hathaway off of their wing, it’s probably to reunite them with a rejuvenated Jaromir Jagr.

But keeping things simple by just swapping two players, the Flames do have an intriguing choice here. They could load up their top line with their best young scorers, breaking up one of the more reliable defensive units of the past year and change, and hoping that Tkachuk can provide more offence than Ferland can.

Best case scenario: Ferland turns out to be a great defensive player who still gets the chance to use his deadly shot, while Tkachuk turns the top line into an absolute nightmare for opposing defences.

Worst case scenario: Tkachuk can’t gel with Gaudreau and Monahan and/or drags them into a scrum that ends somebody’s career (although considering the talking to he’s had lately, maybe not?), and Ferland fails as a defensive specialist outright.

If the worst case scenario happens, you switch them back, but it could be too late to save the season by then. If the best case scenario pans out, then it could be a season-saver on its own, and give the Flames a leg up for years to come.

Is it worth taking the chance to break up these two stable lines? How long do you give them the opportunity to come together? Or should things just stay at the status quo?

What would you do?

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