This is a) not the Colorado that won the Stanley Cup last year b) not the same team Calgary opened the season against due to injuries and c) without Cale Makar tonight as he is hurt too. With Makar out the Avs defensive impact only drops by 1% (an increase of 0.03 xGA per 60). The real change comes in their offensive attack – which is wild to me.

The entirety of their attack drops a full 0.73 expected goals per 60 minutes. They don’t get to the middle of the ice or even get the puck down low. Now if you want to go further look up how much time he’s played with MacKinnon as well – for as long as he and Rantanen are playing there’s a threat of 2-3 goals against.

I’m starting to notice it’s not often Calgary gets listed as the underdog – they typically get the negative line while the opposition has a positive line. You can always find a positive line if you shift to various puckline odds, but moneyline the oddsmakers tend to favour Calgary. They don’t make a business in losing money too often so take note of that – they would all have access to the extra good, extra private statistics to make the odds.

So I think Calgary can win but MacKinnon is in that tier of player that no matter what he should record a point every night. This one pays out double and can be used as an alternative to the primary bet if you wanted better odds.

Lindholm or Toffoli are the main guys shooting when he’s passing, plus he’s getting a lot of prime ice time and doing fairly well with it. It’s the highest payout – Mangiapane is at +200 too if you want to go with a player from the best line in the NHL in terms of xG ratios. Backlund +162 as well.