In the midst of what ended up being a very busy June 23 around the NHL, the Calgary Flames made a splash of their own. Craig Conroy moved out a fair chunk of future draft capital to bring in
2022 second overall pick, Simon Nemec. Let’s look at his past and see what he could bring for the future.
Offence
Nemec rose to prominence in his 2022 draft year with a tremendous season in the Slovakian men’s league, including 17 points in 19 playoff games. It was not a shock to hear his name called at two and he was largely expected to develop into a future quality defenceman.
He kept his production up as he came over to North America and started playing in the AHL. In his D+1, the year after he was drafted, he played 65 games for the Utica Comets producing 12 goals and 34 points. He looked exactly like what was expected on draft day offensively, the Devils organization thought he needed some more work defensively though, and when he started getting NHL games he got limited minutes.
With other defenceman ahead of them on the depth chart, and the Devils having chosen to sign Luke Hughes to long term big money, it wasn’t looking like there was going to be much opportunity for quality minutes in New Jersey anymore.
Still, in his 68 games last season, Nemec still managed to score 11 goals and add 15 assists for 26 points. He’s still not anywhere near his potential offensive ceiling, with nobody really in his way on the right side (Parekh’s going to play on the left, according to Craig) he’ll be provided more opportunity to showcase his skill.
Defence
Nemec hasn’t had the best defensive success in his NHL minutes. He wasn’t that sheltered this past season in New Jersey, starting about 50% of his shifts on the offensive side of the ice. He was not, by any means, the coach’s favourite. Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce, and Jonathan Kovacevic were Sheldon Keefe’s preferred options up front – a hard group to grasp opportunity from.
Nemec does not play like Pesce or Kovacevic, he’s more of a Dougie Hamilton. If you were not going to move on from Hamilton and his 9M contract there wasn’t a spot for him in the lineup every single night.
He played most of his minutes with Brendon Dillon, a known defensive defenceman. They were quite serviceable finishing the season above 50% for both expected goals and high danger chances. They never really tilted the ice in their favour, but they also weren’t taken advantage of either. The real problem was when he played with Jonas Seigenthaler, Luke Hughes, or anyone else. With Seigenthaler they put up an abysmal 38% high danger rate – which is reflected in the bottom part of the rink chart above.
There’s not a lot of NHL positives right now, but the opportunity has been limited minutes. Nemec has flashed everywhere else he’s played outside New Jersey, including a pretty stellar performance at the Olympics, but there is no guarantee that he can be a guy that contributes positively to his defensive coverage.
There is also the possibility he fits in better with the Flames and truly takes some steps – he’s only 22 years old. There are plenty of growth years left, especially for a defenceman.
(chance rates from naturalstattrick.com)
Transition
Normally I leave transition out of it, but Corey Sznajder of AllThreeZones.com did share his data on Simon Nemec publicly so I want to share it and discuss it. There’s lots to like here so let’s talk about that. Once the puck is on his stick Nemec makes things happen. He can help navigate the neutral zone with possession and is very good at trying to keep the play going in the attacking zone. He is most certainly a huge positive to the offensive side of things, however, he needs help.
As Cory stated there he doesn’t get the puck himself, and struggles to get it back in the defensive zone. This is not applying to zone entries, he can break those up just fine, it’s dump and chase hockey he struggles against. It’s a pretty niche area, but an important one for a top defenceman, so that should be an area Calgary targets for improvement.
Nemec playing down th lineup against more bottom 6 competition had him face more of that style of hockey. It’s reasonable to believe he’ll face more skilled competition going forward, but he’ll still need to work on how to gain possession back once in the defensive zone.
Once he has it on his stick, with space, he’s just pretty darn good.
Final Thoughts
You were never drafting a defenceman with this profile with one of Vegas or Colorado’s firsts. The skill this young man employs rivals that of Calgary’s own Zayne Parekh. Insane to acquire a couple top tier puck movers both under 22 years old.
I do think the Flames have the requisite skill to make this work in their favour. Ryan Huska has worked with defencemen for a long time and will be an aid in getting him to understand his own zone better. There will be growing pains, but that’s fine for where this franchise is at. Let these guys learn their mistakes now, while they’re young, so when you acquire the requisite forward help later they are ready to compete as a strong, puck moving contender. Was it a slight overpay? Sure. Was it for a player with a profile that was worth it? Absolutely.
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