What a game, what a night, and what a welcome back to Calgary Flames hockey.
These gentlemen are going to work their tails off every game to ensure you – the fans – always have the possibility of enjoying a victory. Tonight, as it was 4-1 for Vancouver, the entire Flames team could have given in – expectations for them are low and mailing it in would have been largely accepted by the fan base – instead they said to hell with that. That mentality will not fly in the locker room this year. Full roster effort to crawl back against an extremely skilled, playoff calibre squad in the Canucks. Kudos to a Calgary team that already has comeback win of the year and have their fans just itching to go watch a game at the Saddledome. Was it perfect – absolutely not – but the two points count all the same.
I’m so glad to have you all back for the 2024-25 season. It’s honestly my pleasure to do these for you. Now let us dig into the numbers.
CF% – 47.43%, SCF% – 40.00%, HDCF% – 32.04%, xGF% – 37.86%
It’s a Team Game – No need to give you folks a bunch of lies – the Flames took advantage of Vancouver not having a starting goaltender. Thatcher Demko is out and Calgary made a concentrated effort to get chances from within a stick length of the crease. It didn’t have a pay off in the first period – all they got was a random goal from an expiring penalty – but as the score got closer it felt like the feeling that a comeback was possible was building. Sure J.T. Miller tied it late, but it just set the stage for Connor Zary to become the talk of the league after a beautiful solo tuck that had me out of my seat. The wins may not come easy this year, but the games aren’t played until they’re played. The Flames will take this opening night comeback and hopefully use it as momentum.
Corsi King – First write up of the season so for anyone confused I’ll give an explanation of “what does this stat mean, but make it understandable”. Corsi/Fenwick percentage is largely just a ratio that measures shot attempts. It counts them whether they hit the net, are blocked, or missed. It does not weigh the danger of them and is just a simple outlook to see who took the most chances. For the Flames – in his first ever NHL game – Samuel Honzek (55.72 CF%) leads the team. He never did find the scoresheet but he got everything kicked off in the early minutes with some high quality shot attempts. I liked the chemistry he showed with Kadri (47.44 percent) complimenting him off the rush and trying to constantly be open. It’s going to serve him well and it’s only a matter of time before he starts filling the boxscore with points. Game hero Connor Zary (54.52% percent) and Weegar (53.8 percent) round out the top three. Not a lot of Flames finished on the positive side of the shot attempts so Honzek being up top is such a positive sign.
Under Pressure –
Taken By Chance – I was talking to our fearless manager Ryan Pike before the season started. We just were discussing what we believed Calgary would do with their defence and I emphasized (the sentiment was returned too) that I really liked what Brayden Pachal (54.62 SCF% // 51.1 HDCF%) was doing. He’s a sizable defender that can be physical, but he also has some mobility to him. Tonight, he led the defenders in being involved in scoring chances. The defence is a major worry internally amongst most Flames fans, but Pachal showed up tonight in a big way. The most notable forwards were a pair of guys that speaks to the skill of the veteran of the pair. Connor Zary (53.17 percent // 66.28 percent) and Mikael Backlund (47.74 percent // 49.5 percent) were tops across the board in terms of quality of attempts and ratio of significant attempts. There real strength was actually in limiting the quality of shot attempts against while taking advantage of the chances they did generate. Worked out well, eh?
xG Breakdown –
xGF% – Only two studs stand out and I’ll keep praising them. Zary (87.01 percent) and Backlund (81.96 percent) finishing this high at 5v5 SVA (score-venue adjusted, FYI) when Calgary emphatically lost both battles as a team in both the first and third period – that’s top notch NHL execution. Blake Coleman (56.46 percent) was third on the team and nowhere close to the other two in terms of numbers. The point of this year is to see a lot of the young guys make some progress – at least for myself, I’m sure internally the goal is the Stanley Cup, I just want to see Zary, Pospisil (24.79 percent), Honzek (41.56 percent), Coronato (did not play), and Klapka (22.63 percent) continue to grow and become better hockey players. More creation, more creativity, and a commitment to play on the “right” side of the puck. Tonight, it was Zary’s turn to shine.
Game Flow –
Game Score –
Shot Heatmap –
In The Crease – I always copy a phrase I heard Darryl Sutter say to the media one day. When it comes to goaltenders I’m good at evaluating “big saves and bad goals.” That is to say I can tell when they are out of position but to analyze how to move through traffic, or how to track the puck behind the net, well I’ve just got no constructive criticism for that topic. I can say that the J.T. Miller goal with the goalie pulled has to be a stop. A clapper from the top of the circle with no screen and it beats you clean over the shoulder, even though you challenged the shot, not the best. However, I couldn’t do any of it and Vladar did get the win so we are fine. 2.29 expected goals against at 5v5 with two high danger goals against.
I do not fault goaltenders for power play goals against unless it is egregious – they didn’t make their team go down a player. I also don’t put too much weight into high danger chances against unless it gets out of hand. No low danger goals is simply all I want from my guy in the crease, at 5v5 Vladar delivered but he needs to watch some film to see why that last Miller shot got by him.
Player Spotlight – Martin Pospisil – The single most underrated Flame on the roster this year. Pospisil had an amazing off-season playing nationally where he showed he not only can be an offensive difference maker against a high level of competition, he showed he could do it from the middle of the ice. Centre is Calgary’s weakest position in the organization so Pospisil shifting to playing it is a huge positive. I’ve got a few wacky predictions for Pospisil, but the one I’m rooting for the most is that if he can play in 75+ games Pospisil will lead the league in hits. I feel he can evolve into a 15 goal and 40 point player, if not more. He is an amazing aid to shot suppression and shot generation – playing in the middle of the ice gives him more of an opportunity to effect both of those things more significantly. Lots of people will talk about Zary and Honzek this season, but my eyes are firmly on what Pospisil can become.
The Goals –
Flashalytic’s 3 Stars –
1) Connor Zary
2) Mikael Backlund
3) Anthony Mantha (Gordie Howe Hattrick & redemption for Rooney)
Special Note – There is going to more video content accessible all season long on my IG and TikTok, follow along for “Before the Boxscore”, “Fantasy Fridays”, and more! Find me @BTB_FLASH
(Stats compiled from Naturalstattrick.com // Game Score from Hockeystatcards.com // xG and Under Pressure charts from HockeyViz.com // Game Flow and Shot Heatmap from NaturalStatTrick.com // Written statistics are in the form of 5v5 SVA)