A couple years back, the Calgary Flames had one of their top prospects debut as a full-time National Hockey League player. That player, goaltender Dustin Wolf, had a superb rookie campaign and back-stopped the Flames to within a tiebreaker of qualification for the Stanley Cup playoffs.

On a personal level, Wolf received tons of accolades for his performance. He was the runner-up for the Calder Trophy and the unanimous goaltender selection for the All-Rookie Team. He also received votes for the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s top goaltener and the Hart Trophy as the player most valuable to his team. As a rookie. Suffice it to say, his first full NHL season was an unbridled success, and the Flames’ “goaltender of the future” became the goaltender of their present.

His sophomore year was more challenging.

The Flames struggled to score, so their in-game margins were razor-thin. The team, as a group, became victims of what former general manager Brad Treliving used to term “the big mistake,” and consequently Wolf – and backup Devin Cooley – were often deluged with a flurry of strong chances early in games. The club’s defensive underlyings dropped across the board from 2024-25 to 2025-26, according to Natural Stat Trick. (Goaltending expert Kevin Woodley spoke with our Daily Faceoff Vancouver colleagues awhile back and noted how impressive Calgary’s goaltending performances were when considering the team’s defensive foibles.)

The Flames went from being an average defensive team to being bottom-10 in many five-on-five defensive metrics. Expected goals against per 60 jumped from 2.51 to 2.67. Scoring chances against per 60 went from 26.95 to 28.51. High-danger chances against per 60 went from 10.99 to 11.82. And Wolf’s personal five-on-five save percentage went from .926 to .903. Wolf went from being top 10 among NHL starters in most metrics to being fairly average in most metrics, and in some a bit below average.

Can Wolf’s numbers bounce back in 2026-27?

Well, that’s more or less asking if the Flames can be a more structured, predictable defensive team this coming season. They’re returning much of the same group, and adding Jacob Middleton and Simon Nemec to the mix. There may be a bit challenging evenings as the team leans on Zayne Parekh and Nemec and deals with their defensive growing pains over the year, but we don’t necessarily expect changes that would upend the defensive group the way Andersson and Weegar’s departures did in 2025-26.

In other words: Wolf’s numbers will probably recover somewhat in 2026-27 from 2025-26’s performance, but it’s unclear how much of a bounce-back we’ll see given the team remains a work-in-progress in terms of the roster overhaul.

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