The Calgary Flames will look to keep their unbeaten streak alive as they take on division rival Seattle at Climate Pledge Arena. While Calgary’s 4-0 start to the season has been impressive, oddsmakers still power-rate the Kraken as the better team and are offering the Flames a 44.4% chance of winning this game based on current betting odds.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

NHL teams that start the season 4-0 have made the playoffs 80.4% of the time. That sample is mainly compiled of teams that started the year higher preseason expectations than the Flames and is therefore a little skewed, but it is still a very optimistic note surrounding Calgary’s hot start.

It wasn’t the prettiest win ever, but the Flames were able to secure a 3-1 victory over the Blackhawks Tuesday at the Saddledome. Calgary was outshot 32-27, but did a good job of holding the Blackhawks mainly to pressured and perimeter shots, and Dustin Wolf was sharp when needed.

It will be interesting to see whether Ryan Huska offers this start to Dustin Wolf or Dan Vladar. The Flames schedule sets up well for their net-minders to split starts in the early going, and it has been noted that is the plan. However this is a divisional game, and it could be wise to look towards Wolf, who has stopped 68-of-72 (.944%) of shots faced thus far.

Sam Honzek’s injury late in Tuesday’s match-up leaves a vacant role on the Flames top line. Based on Friday’s practice it looks like Matthew Coronato will be rewarded with the opportunity, which makes sense given his offensive upside, and strong performance in Tuesday’s matchup.

It’s been plain-to-see watching the Flames early on that they are offering a better than league average work-rate, and they have looked like a well organized side defensively on top of that. The analytics agree with those notions, as the Flames 2.69 xGA/60 rating is the eighth best mark in the league.

It’s not necessarily a fun note to point out, but Calgary does hold a 106.13 PDO (shooting % + save %), and history tells us there is essentially no chance that mark holds over a large sample. Still, the Flames look like a that is far from lucky to be 4-0 and fans have to be proud of the teams compete level in the early going.

For those of you who believe in Calgary’s hot start, I’ll point out that Ryan Huska is still priced around +2500 to win the Jack Adams award. If the Flames do overachieve and sneak in the post-season Huska will fit the narrative of many previous Jack Adams winners to a tee, and would be highly reminiscent of Darryl Sutter’s Jack Adams win in 2021-22.

After a surprisingly strong campaign in 2022-23 which included a first round over the Avalanche, the Kraken took significant steps backward last season. They tied the Flames with a total of 81 points, and generated just 2.61 goals for per game (29th in NHL). As a result the Kraken opted to relieve a Dave Hakstol of his duties in favour of Dan Bylsma.

In a small sample the Kraken are looking far more dynamic offensively under Bylsma, as they have scored 4.0 goals per game this season, and lead the league in even strength goals.

The Kraken could be without one of the NHL’s more underrated defenders in this matchup, as Vince Dunn missed yesterday’s practice and is considered day-to-day. If Dunn does miss this matchup it should mean a top four role for Calgary native Ryker Evans, who has had a great start to the year with four points in five games.

Shane Wright was viewed by many as a potential breakout candidate this season after he posted 13 points in 12 playoff games playing under Dan Bylsma with Coachella Valley of the AHL. He skated on the Kraken’s top line alongside Jared McCann and Captain Jordan Eberle versus Philadelphia on Thursday, and the trio combined for seven points.

McCann and freshly Eberle have now combined for 13 points in the Kraken’s first five matchups.

Joey Daccord is likely to get the start for Seattle. He holds a .901 save % in his first two starts this season, after putting up a .916 save % and +3.3 GSAx in 50 appearances last year.

This matchup provides a good measuring stick for two sides that have looked great in the early going, and is a more important than average game given the chances that only one of these teams could ever steal a Wildcard berth this season.

At the current numbers I don’t see value backing a side, but I do see value targeting the Kraken’s new look top line to remain productive. Splitting a unit between McCann and Wright to record a point is my favourite way to bet this game.