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Connor Zary is off to a great start to his sophomore season in Calgary. Through five games, he has five points playing on a line with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman.
It’s pretty obvious that Zary is good enough to play in the NHL for a long time. On the ice he a talented forward with high hockey IQ. Off the ice he has a tremendous personality and seems like a high character person. He is the type of player you want to keep in your organization for as long as possible.
Because of that, now would be a great time for Craig Conroy to explore what a long-term contract could look like for Zary.
If you look around the NHL, all the best contracts are signed by talented young players coming out of their entry level deals.
Jack Hughes, Leon Draisaitl (his last contract), Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar, Miro Heiskanen are regarded as having some of the best contracts in the NHL. And it’s because they signed them at such a young age.
The Flames have an example on their current roster in Rasmus Andersson. He signed a 6-year contract with an AAV of $4,550,000 in 2020. That deal has turned into an absolute steal. It’s arguably the best contract on the Flames.
It’s very rare for a team to sign one of their talented young players to a long-term contract and come to regret it.
Zary looks like the type of player who is going to be a fixture in the Flames top 6 for a long time. He scored at a 44-point pace as a 22-year-old rookie. His analytics were even more impressive as a rookie. At 5-on-5, the Flames outscored their opposition 43-28 with Zary on the ice. He was above 50% in CF%, SCF%, xGF%, and HDCF% while playing on a bad team.
He’s worthy of a long-term extension, despite the fact he has only played in 68 career games. The Flames might overpay for Zary in years one or two. But years 3-8 could be an absolute bargain.
What could a long-term deal look like for Zary? Let’s take a look at some contracts signed by players who were in a similar situation as the Flames forward.

Dylan Guenther – 8 Year Contract – $7,140,000 AAV – 21 Years Old – Signed on Sept. 20, 2024

Guenther signed his long-term extension before the start of the 2024-25 season. He’s two years younger than Zary and put up 35 points in 45 games last year in Arizona. His offensive celling is likely a little higher than Zary’s.

Seth Jarvis – 8 Year Contract – $7,420,087 AAV – 22 Years Old – Signed on Sept. 4, 2024

Jarvis signed his contract coming off a 67-point season playing the wing with the Hurricanes last year as a 21/22-year-old. Could Zary have similar production this season?

Cole Caufield – 8 Year Contract – $7,850,000 AAV – 23 Years Old – Signed on Jun. 5, 2023

Caulfield scored 26 goals in 46 games the season prior to signing his eight-year contract extension. That’s good for a 46-goal, and 64-point pace. Zary might be able to have similar point production this season if he keeps getting opportunities on the Flames first power play unit.

Dylan Cozens – 7 Year Contract – $7,100,000 AAV – 23 Years Old – Signed on Feb. 7, 2023

Cozens signed his deal coming off a 38 point in 79 game 2021-22 season. Prior to signing his contract, he had 43 points in 49 games during the 2022-23 season, a 72-point pace. He did that as a 22-year-old.
The market has essentially been set for what a Connor Zary long term contract extension could look like. The main differences between Zary and the examples above is that Zary is at least one year older than all those players when they signed their deals. And his production hasn’t been quite at the same level as the players listed above so far. That could obviously change with a big statistical season this year.
But those deals were signed when there was salary cap uncertainty. The cap is going to exceed $100M in the near future which will work in Zary’s favour.
When you take all that into consideration, an eight-year contract extension in the $7-7.5M range makes a lot of sense for both the Flames and Zary.
It may sound like a lot of money for a player with only 68 games of experience. But it’s been done before across the league. And a lot of those contracts have worked in the teams favour long term.
Zary is the type of player and person you want to invest in. He is a very good player on the ice with the potential to be great. The fans love him. He is a future leader in the dressing room and Calgary community. He represents the city, the team and himself with class. I think it would be in the Flames best interest to get Zary signed to a new deal at some point this season. The longer the Flames wait, the more expensive Zary is going to get.