Blake Coleman enters the 2024-25 campaign coming off the best season of his career where he scored 30 goals and 54 points in 78 games all while being relied upon to play the most difficult minutes at 5-on-5 and the penalty kill. It was an impressive season for the 32-year-old from Texas. But will he be able to replicate that?

Let’s take a look at three outcomes for Coleman in the 2024-25 season.

Coleman would exceed expectations if he was able to replicate his production and impact from last season.

I’m not sure you could ask much more from Coleman when it comes to his 2023-24 campaign. It was by far the best of his career from a production standpoint. On top of that he made an impact on the game in all three zones and special teams.

Over an 82-game point projection, Coleman beat his previous career high point total of 46 by 11 points, good for a 57-point season. But a lot of things went right last year. Coleman scored seven empty net goals which was tied for first in the NHL with Sidney Crosby, Nikita Kucherov, and Jonathan Marchessault. Coleman had a shooting percentage of 15.7% which was also a career high. His previous high was 11.5% in the 2021 pandemic shortened season. Coleman also produced 14 secondary assists at 5-on-5, by far the most of his career.

Those numbers show that there was some luck involved in his career highs last season. But it was also the first season as a Flame where Coleman entered training camp 100% healthy.

“I feel the best physically that I’ve felt in three years” Coleman told Postmedia’s Wes Gilbertson in November of 2023.

Coleman mentioned in the same interview that he had went through “procedures” to address some lingering injury issues.

“After those two Cup runs, it was just something that I never really had time to fully attack it and let it heal. With the long off-season this past summer, it gave me a chance to kind of address that. It’s still something I manage. But on the ice, it’s the best I’ve felt physically, and I think I’m starting to play the way that I need to. A little more physical, a little stronger at the net, just not shying away from anything really. That’s a big part of my game.”

So, did Coleman have one of those career years that can’t be replicated? Or is he the type of player who is getting better with age?

We’ll find out this season. But for the sake of this article, let’s say that he would be exceeding expectations if he is able to replicate what he was able to do last season.

Coleman raised the bar for what we should expect to see from him based off what he did last season. He showed last year what he can do when he is feeling 100% healthy.

A realistic expectation for Coleman this season is to score 20 goals, and at least 40 points while continuing to play stellar defence. That might be putting a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Coleman who has only exceeded 40 points once as a member of the Flames. But as previously mentioned, Coleman wasn’t playing at 100% health in his first two years in Calgary. Now that he is healthy, and he’s playing a prominent role on the team, 20 goals and 40 points is a fair expectation.

You’d also like to see Coleman continue his strong results at 5-on-5.

Coleman, alongside Mikael Backlund, has consistently outplayed his opposition at 5-on-5 in his three years with the Flames. The most impressive numbers coming in the last two years on non-playoff teams, and last year’s team who was outscored by 14 goals.

It would be a successful season if Coleman could be on the right side of 50% on all those statistical categories. That will be easier said than done as this is the worst group of defencemen and goaltenders Coleman has played with as a member of the Flames.

Coleman is the type of player who can still be very effective even if he doesn’t put up a lot of goals and assists. He is the type of player who brings hockey IQ, toughness, physicality, and leadership to a team.

But the Flames still need him to produce. They’re paying him $4,900,000 and he is one of the most relied upon veterans on the team.

Coleman would be performing below expectations if he isn’t able to eclipse the 30-point mark while also seeing his underlying numbers dip below 50% in the statistical categories outlined in the previous section of this article. That type of production wouldn’t be good enough for someone with his resume, large contract, and age.

Coleman is 32 years old and will be 33 in November. He is on the wrong side of 30 and the Flames will need to squeeze every ounce of production out of Coleman while he is in his prime.

I think Blake Coleman is in for another big year with the Calgary Flames. Is he going to score 30 goals again? I don’t think he will. A lot went right for him last season. But I think 20-25 goals and 40-50 points is very attainable.