It’s crazy how we are already discussing the topic of Connor Zary possibly taking the next step this season after only 63 NHL games under his belt. While we’re about to dive into what some expectations are for Zary this season it’s important to address that he exceeded them tremendously last season.

Zary made his NHL debut in a game against the Dallas Stars on Nov. 1, 2023. The 23-year-old was one of the Calgary Flames’ top prospects. He was taken 24th overall by the Flames in 2020 and put up pretty decent numbers in his time in the AHL. It was the first six games of last season with the Calgary Wranglers where he really brought the attention up onto him (he had 10 points in those six games) so much so that he earned a chance with the big club.

Not only did Zary make his NHL debut that night against the Stars, but he also went out there and proved that management and the coaching staff had made the right decision, scoring his first NHL goal just over five minutes in.

Along with Martin Pospisil, Zary started a new wave of youthfulness that swarmed the Flames’ roster last season. He brought in a strong work ethic and a purpose to go out on the ice every night and prove that he belonged, and he did just that, spending the rest of the season in the NHL.

Zary finished the 2023-24 season with 14 goals and 34 points through 63 games played. He spent time on the power play and began to earn trust in different situations throughout the season.

With everything Zary accomplished last season in a rather short time, what are some expectations for him heading into the 2024-25 season?

The Flames are not icing what you would call a strong lineup which means that Zary is playing in a top-six that is weaker than most, and it could hinder the possibility of him improving on his production by a substantial amount. That being said, if the Flames did have an above-average, competitive, playoff-ready roster, Zary might not be in the position he’s in today.

A season where Zary exceeds expectations is a season where he provides lots of offensive production for the Flames. The trajectory would be for Zary to morph into one of the top players on this Flames team for years to come and be one of the offensive engines. He cracked the 30-point mark in 63 games so I think that based on the makeup of this Flames roster as well as the fact that Nazem Kadri, who led the Flames in almost every offensive stat last season, only finished with 75 points, Zary finishing with 60-65 points (or more) would be him exceeding expectations.

According to most underlying metrics, there isn’t one area where Zary has a clear deficiency. He creates offence and can hold his own in the defensive zone. The on-ice goal differential for the Flames last season when Zary was on the ice was a plus 21. Only two players saw more goals scored for the Flames when they were on the ice. A plus 34 with Kadri on the ice and a plus 36 with Andrei Kuzmenko. Continuing to increase that number this season would be another way for him to exceed expectations.

Lastly, out of the 14 goals Zary scored last season, nine of them came from right in front of the net. A season where Zary exceeds expectations is one that could see him expanding the areas in the offensive zone from which he can score. Being able to produce from multiple areas of the offensive zone will create more high-danger scoring opportunities and lead to more goals.

For players who haven’t hit their prime yet and are building toward their peak, every season is one where improvement should be seen. For Zary a season where confidence continues to be built, production increases, and trust is gained is one that would be looked at as meeting expectations. For a first-round pick with the hope that he emerges into one of the top players for this franchise for years to come, improvement is crucial for him to remain on that path. If Zary ends up playing all 82 games or close to it, finishing around the 50-55-point mark seems like a reasonable target for him to “meet expectations.” Continuing to play a key role on the power play is huge as well.

While you would love for Zary to continue to impress and increase his offensive output, the idea of a possible sophomore slump isn’t too far from reality. Consider the Flames’ roster at the start of last season, even in November when Zary joined the team. The first domino to fall in the series of trades didn’t happen until Nov. 30 when Nikita Zadorov was traded to the Vancouver Canucks. Elias Lindholm was with the team till January, Tanev till late February, and Hanifin till the trade deadline. The point is the Flames had a much stronger lineup when Zary arrived than they do heading into this season and so with a weaker roster comes an elevated role for Zary which could end up aiding a sophomore slump. (He could have a bigger role than last season, but he would potentially be playing with a weaker lineup, which would fuel a potential slump.)

In his second season in the NHL with a team that is projected to finish near the bottom of the standings, a season where Zary doesn’t meet expectations is one where he does in fact suffer that dreaded sophomore slump and finishes around the 35-40 point mark.