The Calgary Flames will look to keep control of their playoff destiny Saturday evening when they host the Pacific Division-leading Vegas Golden Knights.

It’s a highly optimistic outlook, but the Flames are guaranteed to make the playoffs if they go 7-0-0 in their final seven games so long as they beat the Minnesota Wild in regulation on April 11th. The Flames are 20-12-5 on home ice this season and will attempt to lean on that strength when they host a true Stanley Cup contender in Saturday’s critical matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Knights are 10-4-2 since the start of March but are still in a close division race thanks to the red-hot play of the Los Angeles Kings, who should provide them with plenty of motivation not to coast into the playoffs. The Knights have been true to form in that span, allowing only 2.19 goals against per game, which is the fourth-best mark in the NHL.

They’ve also allowed only 2.36 xGA/60 since March 1st, and it’s been far more than strong play in goal, which has allowed them to suppress the opposition’s offensive outputs so effectively.

They feature a physical and mobile defensive core that is still capable of moving the puck effectively and helping to generate offence. Other teams have tried to replicate the Knights’ blue line since their Cup victory, but it’s certainly not easy to bring in physical defenders that are still strong at making plays with the puck.

As Alex Pietrangelo returned from injury in the Knights’ 4-0 loss to the Winnipeg Jets on Thursday, their blue line is expected to be at full strength in this matchup, which has been quite a rare occurrence over the last two seasons.

Tomas Hertl will remain sidelined in this matchup, so the Flames will catch a break on that front. Hertl had put up 18 points in his final 15 games prior to the injury, and had been a huge part of the Knights’ league-leading power play, which has succeeded on 30.4% of opportunities this season.

William Karlsson’s recent return has helped to mitigate Hertl’s absence to some extent, as he provides another solid two-way centre, and has overtaken Hertl’s role on the top power-play unit.

Adin Hill is expected to make the start in his hometown. He holds a .907 save percentage and 2.50 GAA in 47 appearances this season.

It’s going to take a special run, but the Flames still hold a legitimate chance of making the playoffs, and it continues to remain quite apparent how badly the team wants to get in. They have two games left versus the Golden Knights and will likely need at least one of those to result in a win, but the other five matchups are quite winnable, as the Kings will likely rest skaters in Game 82.

Over the last 10 games, the Flames are 6-3-1, which has allowed them to make up three points on the Wild. They have allowed only 3.00 goals against per game in that span and have held opponents to less than three goals in eight of those matchups. Offence continues to be tough to come by, however, as Calgary has scored just 2.80 goals per game throughout those 10 matchups.

From an analytical perspective, the Flames have played their best stretch of hockey of the second half recently. Over the last 10 games they hold a 51.72% expected goal share and have only been outchanced by quality teams such as the Colorado Avalanche (twice) and the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Winning high-scoring games will always be somewhat of a struggle for the Flames, but at their best, head coach Ryan Huska’s side is capable of insulating their quality goaltending tandem with solid defensive play to win even matchups.

Dustin Wolf has been confirmed as the starter in this matchup. He holds a .910 save percentage and 2.62 GAA in 47 appearances this season.

The Knights provide a really tough matchup, but the Flames have elevated their play recently in desperate pursuit of a playoff berth. Wolf has been one of the league’s most profitable goaltenders to bet on this season, and the Flames continue to fare well in neutral-rest scenarios on home ice.

At +140, I see a little value backing Calgary to find a way to win this critical matchup and believe it will find a way to make this into a competitive game.

As the Knights have not officially confirmed Hill as the starter, Hill’s save prop has not yet been posted at the time of writing. Due to the Knights’ potent defensive play, it will likely be a fairly low total, likely below the total of 24.5 that has been set for Wolf.

Calgary has generated 32.11 shots per 60 over the last 10 matchups, including some high-shot outputs versus some quality opponents. A lack of shots on goal has rarely been the team’s problem this season and definitely has not been the issue of late. Depending on where the prop is set, there could be plenty of value in leaning on another spirited Flames performance, which leads to a strong output of shots on goal.