There an old phrase in hockey that goes something like this: you judge draft picks with calendars, not stop watches. Sure, sometimes there’s a draft choice that’s so immediately smart that folks around the hockey world immediately decide it was a good pick. Others take a bit of time to fully percolate.

Swedish winger William Strömgren was the second type of draft choice.

A second-rounder in the 2021 NHL Draft, on paper Strömgren seemed like a prototypical Calgary Flames draft choice. He was big. He was Swedish. He played a smart, effective 200-foot game. He was lauded by scouts as mature, composed and toolsy.

Strömgren was a young player in Swedish club hockey; he was productive at the junior level offensively, but he played a secondary checking role in pro (behind the senior team’s older players) and so his offensive numbers didn’t pop. Some players drafted just after him – most notably Dallas pick Logan Stankoven – had better stat lines in different leagues, and so Strömgren’s selection didn’t age well on social media.

However, Strömgren bided his time. He signed an entry-level deal with the Flames after the 2022-23 Swedish season and he came over full time to the American Hockey League’s Calgary Wranglers the following fall. And much like fellow European import Adam Klapka, Strömgren spent his first few months of AHL duty learning the league, and then really took a big leap forward in the second half of his rookie year.

In the 2023 half of Strömgren’s season, he played 26 games and had one goal and two assists for three points. He registered 23 shots, shy of one per game. In the 2024 half, he played 42 games and had six goals and 18 assists for 24 points. He registered 51 shots, just over one per game. In the Calder Cup playoffs, he had four points and 12 shots over six games.

If you are what you repeatedly do, the 48 games of meaningful hockey Strömgren played on the 2024 side of the calendar suggests he could be quite the AHL contributor and potentially push for NHL looks before very long.

Over a full 68-game AHL season, Strömgren’s last 42 games of 2023-24 projects to 10 goals and 39 points. If he can exceed his second half scoring output, either outright or on a pro-rated basis, that would be exceptional based on the bar set by his rookie season.

Around 40 points last season would have put him fourth on the Wranglers scoring chart, behind Klapka, Ben Jones and Matt Coronato. That type of performance would probably earn him NHL looks, as it did Klapka and Coronato.

Strömgren’s second half of 2023-24 set a bar. If he declines slightly from that bar, perhaps only scoring at 80% of his 2024 pace, that would put him somewhere between 33 and 40 points on the year. That feels about the right wheelhouse for what we think he should be able to do at the AHL level, and that would probably still earn him some NHL attention from the Flames if they need call-ups at some point.

The keyword for prospects trying to climb towards the NHL is progression. That means that regression is the enemy. If Strömgren loses the details and confidence that he displayed in the second half of 2023-24, and perhaps if his offensive production dips as well, that would be below expectations. We wouldn’t want to see him score at below a 30 point pace if he wants to keep his momentum towards the NHL rolling along.