The Calder Trophy has a lot of competition this season.
In 2016, the award was given to a 24-year-old Artemi Panarin who scored 30 goals and 77 points in 80 games with the Chicago Blackhawks. The runners-up were defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere and forward Connor McDavid, the latter missing nearly half the season due to a broken clavicle. On top of that, Jack Eichel finished fourth in voting and Dylan Larkin finished fifth in voting. It was a pretty stacked race.
There have been other good races as well since then, with the 2018 Calder Trophy being awarded to Mathew Barzal, with Brock Boeser, Clayton Keller, Kyle Connor, and Charlie McAvoy all finishing in the top five.
This season, there are four real candidates to contend for the National Hockey League’s rookie of the year trophy: Macklin Celebrini, Dustin Wolf, Lane Hutson, and Matvei Michkov. Let’s take a look at Dustin Wolf’s chances of winning the trophy.

Dustin Wolf’s chances of winning the Calder Trophy

The Calder Memorial Trophy has been awarded since the 1932-33 season, with 16 netminders winning the trophy. Mike Karakas was the first to do so for the Chicago Black Hawks in 1935-36, and the most recent netminder to win it was Steve Mason in 2008-09 thanks to a .916 save percentage and a 2.29 goals against average in 61 games for the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Since then, four netminders have been finalists for the award – Jimmy Howard of the Detroit Red Wings in 2009-10, Jordan Binnington of the St. Louis Blues in 2018-19, Alex Nedeljkovic of the Carolina Hurricanes, and Stuart Skinner of the Edmonton Oilers in 2022-23.
The Calgary Flames haven’t had a finalist for the trophy since the late, great Johnny Gaudreau finished third in voting back in 2014-15. The last time a Flames’ rookie won the award was in 1990, when Sergei Makarov scored 24 goals and 86 goals in 80 games as a 31-year-old rookie. This was the last time a player over 26 years old was able to win the Calder Trophy – there was an outcry over someone Makarov’s age winning, so the guidelines for the award were changed for the following season.
Moreover, Makarov was the third Flames’ rookie to win the award in the past five seasons, as Joe Nieuwendyk won the award in 1988 and Gary Suter won the award in 1986. These three instances were the three times a Flame won the Calder since the move to Calgary. The only player currently on the Flames roster to win the award is Jonathan Huberdeau, who won it in 2012-13 with the Florida Panthers.
All of this is to say that no matter what Wolf does this season, it’ll be hard to win the trophy as no netminder has won it since 2009, nor has a Flame won it since 1990. With that being said, Wolf should certainly be considered for it.
This season, the 23-year-old has a .914 save percentage and a 2.60 goals against average in 21 games played with a 13-6-2 record. Sure, he hasn’t had the usual starter workload, nor has he faced the harder schedule, but keep this in mind: the Flames were supposedly a rebuilding team.
Midway through the season though, the Flames have a 19-14-7 record with 45 points, just one behind the Vancouver Canucks who have a 19-14-7 record. While the Flames have somehow find ways to win, it’s not because they’ve been able to score, as their 108 goals are tied for the fourth-fewest in the league.
Wolf’s strong play, even with Daniel Vladař getting the tougher games, has been a big reason why the Flames are even sniffing around the postseason. The competition is stiff, though.

The competition

The front-runner for the Calder is San Jose Sharks’ forward Macklin Celebrini. This season with the Sharks, he has 13 goals and 28 points in 31 games. The 18-year-old’s goals lead all rookies, while his point total is third for rookies, only two behind Lane Hutson. However, on a per-game basis, Celebrini’s 0.9 points-per-game edges out the two other potential nominees.
Like last season, the Sharks aren’t a good team, as they have a 13-24-6 record with 32 points, the second-fewest in the league with only the Chicago Blackhawks behind them. However, the team is a lot more fun than last season and have been more competitive as well, as the Sharks has a .372 point percentage compared to a .287 point percentage last season. 
It’s clear that Celebrini is the best player on the team, but a shout out needs to be given to netminder Yaroslav Askarov, who could well have been a nominee as well had he started his season in the National Hockey League.
Montréal Canadiens defenceman Lane Hutson is the mid-season runner-up in the minds of many. This season, the 20-year-old has three goals and 30 points in 40 games, again, as a defenceman. It’s not very often a second-round pick defenceman instantly becomes a team’s best player on the blue line, but Hutson did just that for the Canadiens.
Much like Wolf, Hutson emergence has helped the Canadiens push for a postseason spot midway through the season while being considered a rebuilding team. They have a 19-18-3 record with 41 points, just one out the final Wild Card spot with a whole lot of teams in the chase. Still, the fact he leads all rookies in scoring as a defenceman while also eating significant minutes for the Canadiens has him pretty close to Celebrini in terms of Calder Trophy contenders.
Lastly, the other real contender to win the Calder Trophy is Philadelphia Flyers’ forward Matvei Michkov. Early in the season, he was the front-runner for the award as he had 11 goals and 27 points through his first 27 games.
However, the Russian has cooled off significantly since then, scoring a goal and an assist in his last 12 games while being a -14. In 11 of those 12 games, he’s been held pointless with his only production coming in Dec. 29’s game against the Los Angeles Kings. Unless he turns it around quickly, he’s going to continue to fall out of the race.
All in all, Wolf would be a good candidate to win the Calder Trophy in most seasons, but the 2024-25 season has plenty of rookies that have a legitimate shot at winning the trophy. There’s still half a season left and if Wolf can continue his strong play while the Flames make the post-season, that may just be enough for a netminder to win the award for the first time since 2009.
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