In hockey, a lot can change in a hurry. We’ve seen multi-goal leads disappear within minutes. And on a more micro sense, we’ve also seen players who seemed like long-shots to have NHL careers find ways to rapidly change everyone’s minds.

When the curtain fell on the 2023-24 season, it was easy to imagine a scenario where Rory Kerins played out the final season of his entry level deal in 2024-25 and left the Flames organization, perhaps headed to Europe or somewhere else in minor-pro. Kerins hadn’t played all-in-all poorly, but he hadn’t yet discovered a niche or enough consistency to carve one out at the pro level.

Well, at least based on the season he’s had thus far… he’s started to figure it out, and it’s hard to imagine a player in the Flames system who’s done more to elevate their stock this season than Kerins has.

An offensive standout in junior with the Ontario Hockey League’s Soo Greyhounds, Kerins went pro in 2022-23 and had an uneven year. The Wranglers had a lot of forwards in camp, and so Kerins slid down to the ECHL and played most of the season with the Rapid City Rush. He had 36 points in 38 ECHL games and was really solid when he was healthy, but he didn’t really stand out much during a brief AHL call-up.

He progressed in 2023-24, the second year of his entry level deal: he spent the entire season in the AHL, too. The good news is that he had some solid offensive numbers, posting 32 points in 54 games with the Wranglers. But he was also kind of all over the place: he had points in 27 games (posting 32 points), but was held off the scoresheet 27 times and the gap between his “A” game and his “B” game was pretty stark. He was pretty hot and cold; in February and March he had a stretch of seven games without a point, then a brief offensive flurry for a few games, then another five games without points.

Kerins was uneven to the point where he was a scratch for the first handful of games of the season – he only got into the lineup when Martin Pospisil was called up to the NHL roster – he was held out for 14 regular season games overall. Heck, he only played a single playoff game.

Kerins wasn’t ranked in our top 20 prospects over the summer, and it would’ve been reasonable to wonder if he was going to receive a qualifying offer from the Flames with another similar season.

By all accounts, Kerins had a great summer. The Flames’ staff praised him for how well-prepared he was. While he didn’t get into any pre-season games – he skated in the third group with the guys destined for the AHL – he was given a huge opportunity early in the season when Cole Schwindt was claimed off waivers by Vegas and Justin Kirkland was called up to the NHL to cover for an injured Kevin Rooney.

As a result of two established AHL centres disappearing from the Wranglers’ lineup, Kerins found himself – by default – as their top centre, playing ahead of Sam Morton and between Jakob Pelletier and Dryden Hunt. When Pelletier was called up to the NHL, William Strömgren joined that line. And because he was prepared, and because he had good linemates that could allow him to play his style of game, Kerins absolutely thrived and emerged as one of the most consistent offensive players in the AHL.

By the time Kerins was called up to the NHL in mid-January, he was the AHL’s leading goal-scorer. Two thoughts came to mind when Kerins made his NHL debut: he absolutely had earned it, and man, what a turnaround. He had four assists over five NHL games before he was returned to the AHL.

Kerins probably still needs to round out his game at the pro level. His two-way game isn’t anything special and he may not be destined to be a centre at the NHL level because his checking details can be spotty. (And he’s shooting 24% in the AHL, so we’re sure that his scoring numbers will come back down to Earth over time.) But with the right linemates and the right usage, he’s a superb AHL forward and has shown promise at the NHL level.

Given how things seemed to be headed six months ago, it’s pretty impressive that we’re pondering Kerins’ NHL future.