For once we didn’t have to hear the cannons in Nationwide Arena go off, which is a treat because nothing about hearing those cannons repeatedly is an enjoyable experience.

Feel of the game

It’s a John Tortorella coached team so you know what that means? Antagonism on-ice during the play, after the whistle, and the inevitable hope that there may be a meltdown leading to the much-wanted and always sought-after Torts vs. The Flames in a hallway sequel. Unfortunately there wasn’t any of that, but it would be safe to say by the end of last night neither team are truly fond of each other.
The hot-start of the first period was a welcome sight given the experiences the team has had through the first month of this season. Sean Monahan’s third goal of the season(a far cry that what is probably expected of him) gave way for the Flames to avoid a start like they did in Nashville, or Los Angeles, or at home versus Los Angeles.
Sam Bennett’s third of the year in the second period while the Blue Jackets tried to claw back was yet another step forward, building off of their improbable comeback. The synergy that is starting to form with Bennett and Derek Ryan can be a catalyst for developing a third-line that has the potential provide valuable secondary offense.
Even with the positives that came from the third line, the Blue Jackets’ press for a goal felt like a relentless death-march to a collapse. It’s what makes the Blue Jackets despite their record a watchable experience: they don’t really give up, despite the talent disparity they may encounter on occasion.
The third period saw the reuniting of Andrew Mangiapane on the second line and unsurprisingly: they looked like a formidable scoring line. It was a huge part of the pace shift during sustained intervals in the third despite the press by the Blue Jackets to break the shutout bid. Yet again Matthew Tkachuk appeared, giving the Flames the added insurance to help cement their shutout victory as they head into Washington aiming for their first three-game winning streak of the season.

The good news

Sean Monahan scoring his first goal since October 5th was a much needed event to transpire. Per Evolving Hockey, in all-situations Monahan should be sitting around 4.59 expected goals on the season prior to coming into last night’s game. Three of which should have transpired at 5v5.
Including last night’s win, over the last five games Monahan has been averaging 0.116 ixG (individual expected-goals) per game, which isn’t impressive, but it’s the part where he has been consistently getting shots of some value – albeit lesser value ones. For Monahan to get out of this slump, more is still going to be asked of him, but you have to hope this goal gets his confidence back on track. He has an incredible finishing talent, maintaining an exceptional above-average shooting percentage too (12.57% at 5v5), and this lull of sorts is bound to end sooner than later.
Finally: David Rittich.
On the first night of a back-to-back, while maintaining a lead for pretty much the entirety of the game, this was one of Rittich’s finest performances. The Blue Jackets were quite relentless with their shot choices, often emphasizing a high-quality approach to their attempt at even strength:
This is a fantastic example of how and why using expected goals can frame performances like Rittich’s shutout in an exceptional light. Rittich stole this game and it was a lot closer than the score sheet would typically indicate. Boone Jenner’s shot to the left of Rittich’s net: xG value of 0.2985 (29.85%). Gustav Nyquist’s huge chance at the top-right of the crease? 0.3291 (32.91%).
For additional context: Monahan’s goal was valued at 0.0563 (5.63%).

The bad news

The problem with the Milan Lucic punch is that it was unnecessary. There’s a part of hockey where functional toughness has value, this was not one of them. Regardless of what unwritten rules of hockey you adamantly believe as if they’re some sort of fundamental way of playing this game, punching a guy in the face and putting your team on the penalty kill is a silly way of going about doing your job.
Even if the opposition does next to nothing in terms of creating goals or chances, you’re still putting your team – a team you passionately care about given your previous actions – at a competitive disadvantage. More importantly it’s just a dangerous act to engage in. Scrums post-whistle, that may goad your opponent into maybe taking a penalty? That’s great! That is a very valuable thing to do and teams embrace it. Hell, that’s what Tkachuk is a master in. Do that, don’t punch a guy in the face.
The power play as a whole last night was unfathomably inept at creating high value opportunities. Of the three shot attempts at 5v4 for the Flames, the sum value of xG was a meager 0.14. To contrast that, the Blue Jackets made use of their power plays in a more effective way: their eight unblocked shot attempts added up to a sum of 0.26.
The Flames’ PK managed to create four unblocked shot attempts which added up to 0.57 xG on the evening.

Numbers: the only things that truly matter in hockey

  • Mikael Backlund’s late-game scoring chance had an xG value of 0.308 (30.8%). It’s only a matter of time when chances start going int he net for him. While his play this season has been up and down, there’s no denying that there should be a couple more goals on the season for him.
  • Derek Ryan had two fantastic chances in-close to the net at even strength, with xG values of 0.2711 (27.11%) and 0.2767 (27.67%). Ryan’s cementing as the third-line centre has been one of the best parts of Flames’ hockey since he signed last summer.
  • Andrew Mangiapane should at this point replaced Michael Frolik on that second line. Mangiapane’s five iCF at 5v5 including an 0.44 ixG sum further the case that he should be given a prolonged look there. Play the Bread Boy there, Bill. Do it, you coward.
  • The Tkachuk – Backlund – Mangiapane line in 3:21 at 5v5? 70% CF, 93.7% xGF. (via Natural Stat Trick)
  • 5:57 at 5v5 for Mark Jankowski who continues to see sub-10 minutes a night. What’s the plan moving forward for him?
  • 28.57% shots-for at 5v5 in the second period. As much as score-effects play into things (adjusted to 33.22%), the team was absolutely on the heels. Peters and the coaching staff need to right the ship in regards to their inability to push play with a lead versus holding on for dear life.
  • 8-7 high-danger scoring chances (per Natural Stat Trick) at 5v5 thanks to the 6-2 push in the third period.

Final Thought

I think I would be remiss if I didn’t say something about Kent Wilson’s blogging retirement. If you don’t know who Kent is, shame on you, but more importantly let me take a moment to lionize the guy who helped get FlamesNation to where it is now. In fact, he helped pave the way for all of us here currently. Without Kent, there wouldn’t have been Matchsticks and Gasoline: a site where Christian, Ari (who is also enjoying her hiatus-retirement from writing for now), and myself got our starts.
Without Kent we wouldn’t have FlamesNation where it is now. He was tasked with helping build this site from the ground up. We wouldn’t have the many voices past and present who got their starts here thanks to Kent for giving them chances to showcase, hone, and eventually master their craft. His writing helped usher contribute to valuable quantitative discussions about the Flames and helped bridge the gap from old guard thinking to more progressive concepts.
Whenever someone wrote something insightful or groundbreaking when it came to hockey analysis – be it here or somewhere else – it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kent promoting their work. That’s who Kent is: someone who wanted to vault creative, innovative ideas to the mainstream. He cares tremendously about this community, the Hockey Twitter community, and furthering our understanding of the game.
Enjoy retirement, Kent. We’ll be retiring your blogging sweatpants, hanging them in the basement rafters sometime in the new year.