Friends, we’re 15 games into the 2024-25 season, and the Calgary Flames have been fairly decent so far. They’re not the Winnipeg Jets or anything, but they’ve shown themselves to be a tough 60 minutes of hockey for whoever they’ve been playing.
As we prep for a busy week ahead, let’s delve into the mailbag!
For those who are unfamiliar, Peyton Krebs is a left shot centre who’s originally from Calgary. He played his junior hockey with the Kootenay/Winnipeg Ice, where he served as captain for three seasons. He was drafted 17th overall by Vegas in the 2019 NHL Draft and was traded to Buffalo as part of the Jack Eichel trade. (His brother, Dakota, was also a well-regarded WHLer who is now a video coach with the Calgary Hitmen.)
Krebs has played over 200 NHL games, primarily with the Sabres, and his results have been mixed. He’s posted decent enough offensive numbers, consistently performing at around 0.30 points-per-game in a depth role. But his face-off numbers have been unremarkable and his underlying metrics fairly drab, whether the Sabres coaching staff has given him strong offensive zone starts or not. So far this season he’s won 58.3% of his draws (that’s good), but his expected goals percentage is 39.6%. In short: he wins draws, but his line gets steamrolled. (Under Evolving Hockey’s goals above replacement model, he’s performed below replacement in each of the previous three seasons.)
Krebs is on an inexpensive contract, with a $1.45 million cap hit through next season, and he’s just 23. There’s probably some upside there. But aside from this season, his face-off numbers have been rough, and there aren’t a lot of strong aspects of his game to latch onto and try to build. He’s young, but even with offensive zone sheltering he hasn’t flourished offensively all that much. The Flames need good young centres, but Krebs’ results in the NHL so far haven’t really suggested he’ll become one.
While the Flames are reportedly keeping their eyes open for young centres around the league, they’ve tried out both Yegor Sharangovich and Martin Pospisil up the middle. The results have been okayish, but nothing to write home about. Connor Zary got a couple weeks at centre last season in the final weeks of the campaign, and he was decent enough.
The challenge for the Flames with their young forwards is this: can they continue to do what made them effective on the wing while playing centre? The Flames adore Pospisil’s speed and physicality, Sharangovich’s shot (and ability to get into areas to use that shot), and Zary’s creativity and puck-moving ability. They’re all really good young players. But can they be good centres when they also have to worry about defensive responsibilities and face-offs?
Based on what we’ve seen so far, perhaps the best spot for all three players is on the wing. But the Flames are lean on centres, and so you can understand the impulse to try each player out up the middle until a better option presents itself.
Speaking of centres: Kevin Rooney is the Flames’ fourth line centre. He’s played seven games and is minus-1 with zero points and a 44.4% winning percentage on face-offs.
Is he a spectacular player that demands a bigger role? Not really, no. Is he an absolute gong show on the ice? Also no. Rooney is, to phrase it blunt, a perfectly fine depth player and a decent enough penalty killer. He’s missed time with injury, but he’s also been a healthy scratch from time to time. I would argue that the challenge before the Flames is to find someone that can do Rooney’s job – killing penalties and playing on the fourth line – better than he can. But the organization’s depth, especially up the middle, isn’t there yet. (A thought: is that player potentially Justin Kirkland?)
I cannot speak for my media colleagues, but I don’t spend a lot of my time as a member of the media pondering players that are merely “fine,” so Rooney doesn’t take up a lot of my mental bandwidth.
A year ago, the Flames had Jacob Markstrom and Dan Vladar in the NHL and Dustin Wolf and Oscar Dansk in the AHL. Now, the Flames have Vladar and Wolf in the NHL and Devin Cooley and Waltteri Ignatjew in the AHL. So far, there hasn’t really been much of a drop-off.
Following the Buffalo game, using Natural Stat Trick’s data, both Vladar (2.59) and Wolf (3.80) have allowed fewer goals than expected at five-on-five. When you factor in all game situations, Vladar has allowed 1.02 more goals than expected and Wolf 0.65 goals fewer than expected. The Flames traded away a legit Vezina trophy contender, and collectively their goaltenders have performed as expected – and they’re 6.39 goals better than expected at five-on-five.
And then there’s Cooley patiently waiting in the AHL, with great vibes, great interview answers and great numbers for the Wranglers. Over at Daily Faceoff this week, Frank Seravalli pondered if teams could be calling the Flames to ask about Cooley’s availability soon… but personally (and this is entirely me speculating) I’m thinking more that perhaps the Flames would be waiting for calls on Vladar, a pending UFA, to potentially move Cooley up. (Wolf and Cooley are both on one-way deals for next season.)
In the meantime, there’s really no reason for the Flames to rush into a move considering how well their goaltenders at both levels are performing.
I’m a big fan of Ilya Solovyov’s game. He plays simple, smart, physical defence, and he’s sneaky-good at moving the puck up ice for his teammates. Through 10 games, Solovyov has three goals, seven points and a plus-7 rating. He’s played in the NHL before and looked right at home in a third pairing role. He wouldn’t need to alter his game or habits very much to fit into the Flames’ blueline group.
Sam Honzek has played four AHL games. He’s played all four games with Clark Bishop, and he’s looked fine. You can tell he’s trying to learn and figure out the flow of the AHL game. The nicest thing I can say about his game after watching two on video and one in person, is that he’s always in position and he doesn’t seem out of place. When you consider he’s still just 19, that’s a big accomplishment. Let’s give him a few weeks at the AHL before we really nitpick the details of his game.
I think Rasmus Andersson and MacKenzie Weegar both deserve a ton of credit for how they’ve stepped up in the face of so many changes to the blueline since last season. They’ve consistently been among the club’s most noticeable players, and only Anthony Mantha has
a higher average game score than they do. They’ve been great.
Weegar is signed for another six seasons after the current one, and so he’s likely cemented into the club’s long-term plans because he’s quite good and signed to a deal with a $6.25 million cap hit (that probably underpays him). Andersson is signed for one more season after this one, and you could make an argument that we’re seeing a bit of an audition process to see if the player fits the team and the team fits the player. Andersson’s awesome. Can he continue to be awesome when the Flames emerge from their retooling cocoon as a contender? And can he do that with a palatable cap hit?
Until you’re positive that Andersson can’t fit into the team’s long-term plans, or can’t do it at the right cap number, or somebody makes you a bonkers trade offer for his services, you let the mutual audition process continue.
Daniil Miromanov has been healthy-scratched this season, so I’m not sure he’s got a long leash. However, I think the Flames are trying to figure out what he can do and his limitations, and he’s playing with MacKenzie Weegar, who is a strong all-around defender that can cover up for some of Miromanov’s foibles. I would also argue that I’m not sure who would be able to take over Miromanov’s top four role right now, particularly playing on the right side. So, for now, he remains a fixture in the Flames lineup as they keep trying to determine what he is at the NHL level.
I think slow starts over the last week or two have really hurt them. But I’ve liked their battle level in games, especially in terms of being able to claw back in games without opening up too much defensively.
Got a question for a future mailbag? Contact Ryan on Twitter/X at @RyanNPike or e-mail him at Ryan [at] TheNationNetwork.com! (Make sure you put Mailbag in the subject line!)
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