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Historical Context In A Crazy Rumour
alt
Jeff Veillette
Jun 17, 2013, 15:46 EDT
Every so often, a hockey rumour comes up that makes you sit in awe and confusion. Even rarer, you get the awesome plot twist of there being merit to the speculation. Usually, when that’s the case, it involves Flames GM Jay Feaster or Avalanche GM Greg Sherman. Occasionally, the two will band together to create the Watch The Throne of puck absurdity, like the Ryan O’Reilly offer sheet that nearly ended in waivers earlier this season. Fast forward to now, and we have another fun "what if" to discuss.
As reported across the hockey world, the Flames want to make a significant impact at this year’s draft. Since they weren’t able to completely tank, trading for the first overall pick is the best way to do it, and Colorado is the team in possession of that top spot. Feaster’s plan of attack? He offered picks 6 (Calgary’s original pick), 22 (from St. Louis) and 28 (from Pittsburgh) for first overall. Sherman and the Avalanche have since rejected it, but it’s lead to some debate. Should they have taken it? After all, three first round picks are nothing to scoff at. Here’s a look at every 1 for 6/22/28 scenario possible since the draft had at least 28 potential selections:
YearTo Calgary (1)To Colorado (6)To Colorado (22)To Colorado (28)Win?
2013
Nathan Mackinnon
Darnell Nurse
Zach Fucale
Kerby Rychel
TBD
2012
Nail Yakupov
Hampus Lindholm
Olli Maatta
Brady Skjei
TBD
2011
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Mika Zibanejad
Tyler Biggs
Zack Phillips
TBD
2010
Taylor Hall
Brett Connolly
Jared Tinordi
Carlie Coyle
TBD
2009
John Tavares
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Jordan Schroeder
Dylan Olsen
TBD
2008
Steven Stamkos
Nikita Filatov
Jordan Eberle
Viktor Tikhonov
TBD
2007
Patrick Kane
Sam Gagner
Max Pacioretty
Nick Petrecki
TCTC
2006
Erik Johnson
Derick Brassard
Claude Giroux
Nick Foligno
COL
2005
Sidney Crosby
Gilbert Brule
Matt Lashoff
Matt Niskanen
CGY
2004
Alexander Ovechkin
Al Montoya
Lukas Kaspar
Mark Fistric
CGY
2003
Marc-Andre Fleury
Milan Michalek
Marc-Antoine Pouliot
Corey Perry
COL
2002
Rick Nash
Scottie Upshall
Sean Bergenheim
Jonas Johansson
CGY
2001
Ilya Kovalchuk
Mikko Koivu
Jiri Novotny
Adrian Foster
CGY
2000
Rick DiPietro
Scott Hartnell
David Hale
Justin Williams
COL
1999
Patrik Stefan
Brian Finley
Maxime Ouellet
Kristian Kudroc
CGY
1998
Vincent Lecavalier
Rico Fata
Simon Gagne
Ramzi Abid
CGY
1997
Joe Thornton
Daniel Tkaczuk
Nikos Tselios
Brad DeFauw
CGY
1996
Chris Phillips
Boyd Devereaux
Jeff Brown
Pavel Skrbek
CGY
1995
Bryan Berard
Steve Kelly
Brian Boucher
Jan Hlavac
CGY
1994
Ed Jovanovski
Ryan Smyth
Jeff Kealty
Johan Davidsson
TCTC
1993
Alexandre Daigle
Viktor Kozlov
Anders Eriksson
Shean Donovan
COL
1992
Roman Hamrlik
Cory Stillman
Curtis Bowen
Paul Brousseau
TCTC
1991
Eric Lindros
Peter Forsberg
Dean McAmmond
Jim Campbell
TCTC
1990
Owen Nolan
Scot Scissons
Ryan Hughes
Brandy Semchuk
CGY
1989
Mats Sundin
Adam Bennett
Adam Foote
Jarrod Skalde
CGY
1988
Mike Modano
Scott Pearson
Troy Mallette
Paul Holden
CGY
1987
Pierre Turgeon
Dave Archibald
Brad Miller
Daniel Marois
CGY
1986
Joe Murphy
Vincent Damphousse
Adam Graves
Kent Hawley
COL
1985
Wendel Clark
Brad Dalgarno
Ken Spangler
Mike Richter
TCTC
1984
Mario Lemieux
Craig Redmond
Greg Smith
Doug Houda
CGY
1983
Brian Lawton
John Maclean
Todd Charlesworth
Jeff Jackson
COL
1982
Gord Kluzak
Phil Housley
Brian Curran
Rene Badeau
COL
1981
Dale Hawerchuk
Jim Benning
Scott Arniel
Steve Gatzos
CGY
1980
Doug Wickenheiser
Paul Coffey
Joe Ward
Steve Ludzik
COL
1979
Rob Ramage
Craig Hartsburg
Blake Wesley
Tim Trimper
CGY
1978
Bobby Smith
Behn Wilson
Curt Fraser
Glenn Hicks
CGY
1977
Dale McCourt
Doug Wilson
Jeff Bandura
Don Laurence
COL
1976
Rick Green
Don Murdoch
Reed Larson
Bobby Simpson
COL
1975
Mel Bridgman
Don Ashby
Brian Engblom
Brad Gassoff
CGY
1974
Greg Joly
Doug Hicks
Bryan Trottier
Guy Chouinard
COL
1973
Denis Potvin
Andre Savard
Peter Marrin
Jean Landry
CGY
1972
Billy Harris
Michel Larocque
Tom Cassidy
Stan Weir
CGY
1971
Guy Lafleur
Ron Jones
Rick Kehoe
Curt Ridley
CGY
1970
Gilbert Perreault
Chuck Lefley
Errol Thompson
Michel Archambault
CGY
1969
Rejean Houle
Bob Currier
Art Quoquochi
Willie Brossart
CGY
 For the sake of debate, I used MyNHLDraft’s mock draft with alterations to 1 and 6 for this season. Best player available is usually the way to go, but with 1-3 and 6-8 being close together, strengths and weaknesses can be considered. I believe that Calgary is more keen to getting an elite centre, so Mackinnon would be their player of choice. Colorado, who seems to be geared to Jones at #1, would likely look to defence again at 6 and select Darnell Nurse.
I’ve also marked the last five drafts as "To Be Decided" in outcome. These players are still young and developing, and results could still go either way, though I’m all but certain that 2010 and 2008 are going to end up with 1st overall being the better choice. Now, with that considered…
  • In the 35 remaining drafts, having the 1st overall pick is the better choice 20 times (58.8%).
  • Scouting has gotten a lot better over the years. From 1987 to 2006, just 4 of 20 times does pick quantity win over quality.  By comparison, quantity won out 6 of 10 times between 1974 and 1983. The first pick has become a much safer place over time.
  • 2000 goes in favour of quantity, but Rick DiPietro’s injuries play a huge role in that. If he continued to be a top 5-10 goaltender, this wouldn’t be a discussion.
  • I find it funny that despite Patrik Stefan becoming a bust, he would’ve been the right option in 1999. I guess 7 year old Jeff was wrong about Maxime Ouellet being a sure-fire superstar goaltender.
  • 1990 is probably the most lopsided year. Owen Nolan had a fantastic career, whereas the three players that would’ve been sent the other way combined for 6 games played and 0 points. Nolan was picked by Quebec, who are now Colorado, making it especially fitting.
  • Similarly, 1997 is pretty lopsided, with Joe Thornton going first and nothing of value being taken at 6/22/28. Daniel Tkaczuk was actually a Calgary pick at 6th, like Rico Fata the net year.
  • Six of these trades are "too close to call", but in most coses, it’s a matter of just one of the three panning out to be about as good as the #1 pick, and the other two being scraps, rather than a case of overpowering amounts of talent.
While the rumour was a fun one, it looks like Colorado made the right decision here. This also means there was a method to Feaster’s madness, and that putting all your eggs in one basket is smart, as long as the basket is made of diamond. First overall picks are becoming increasingly harder to mess up. Picking a superstar off of a late first rounder is more lucky than it is good scouting. The types of players you pick in those spots are good to have in your core, but are available via free agency much more often than the average first overall pick (Kovalchuk being the only one to really hit the open market in his prime, and even he eventually returned to New Jersey).
With that said, knowing the luck of these two teams, Colorado will pick up the next Stefan. Calgary will respond by picking the next Forsberg at 6, next Trottier at 22, and next Perry at 28, but all three will struggle out of the gate. You know, until they break out after being traded to re-acquire Jarome Iginla for a farewell tour in three years.