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How a Golden Knights Stanley Cup win would maximize draft pick value for the Flames
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Photo credit: Sergei Belski-Imagn Images
Ryan Pike
May 4, 2026, 12:00 EDTUpdated: May 4, 2026, 00:24 EDT
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Pals, the second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs has begun. And in terms of the Calgary Flames, there are reasons to pay attention to the games.
First, there are a lot of former Flames players active in the playoffs – like Philadelphia Flyers netminder Dan Vladar. But more importantly, there’s important draft pick implications connected to the next few rounds of hockey, as the Flames own the Vegas Golden Knights’ first-round pick this year.
Add in some conditional picks connected to the Rasmus Andersson trade, and it’s quite a complicated situation. Let’s dive into it.

How the draft order is set

The draft is designed to promote parity – helping the lowest-ranked teams the most – and so that’s the logic behind the draft order.
The first 16 picks in each round go to the 16 teams that missed the playoffs in reverse standings order – the worst team gets the first pick, and so on.
The order of the last 16 picks are set by combination of regular season finish and playoff success, with teams slotting into the latest spot they qualify for.
  • The first picks go to the teams that (a) did not win their division and (b) did not make it to the Conference or Stanley Cup Final round.
  • After that we get the division winners, in reverse order of regular season points. (Unless they make the Conference or Stanley Cup Final round.)
  • The 29th and 30th picks go to the teams that lost in the Conference Final round, in reverse order of regular season points.
  • The 31st pick goes to the Stanley Cup Final loser
  • The 32nd pick goes to the Stanley Cup winner.
Here’s this system in action, using last year’s draft as an example:
  • Picks 1 to 16 went to the non-playoff teams.
  • Picks 17 to 24 went to the teams that didn’t win their division or make the Conference or Stanley Cup Final rounds.
  • Toronto (25th), Vegas (26th), Washington (27th) and Winnipeg (28th) won their divisions but didn’t make the Conference or Stanley Cup Final rounds.)
  • Carolina (29th) and Dallas (30th) lost in the Conference Final round.
  • Edmonton lost in the Stanley Cup Final and was allocated the 31st pick
  • Florida won the Stanley Cup and was allocated the 32nd pick
This order is set for every single round, with the draft lottery only shifting around first-round picks. This year has an added wrinkle, as Ottawa has been locked in at 32nd overall – as punishment for the Evgenii Dadonov no-trade clause confusion – so the later picks shift up… but only for the first round.
With that out of the way, let’s talk about Vegas.

A conditional pick in the Rasmus Andersson trade

On Jan. 18, the Flames traded Rasmus Andersson to the Golden Knights in exchange for Zach Whitecloud, the rights to Abram Wiebe, a conditional 2027 first-round pick (it shifts to 2028 if it’s in the top 10) and a conditional 2028 second-round pick.
The 2028 second-round pick becomes a 2028 first-round pick if Vegas wins the Stanley Cup this year.
So, how much should Flames fans be cheering for Vegas? How much of a difference would upgrading that 2028 pick make if it would mean Vegas’ first-rounder this year – owed to the Flames as part of the Noah Hanifin trade – would slide back in the draft order.
We’ll use PuckPedia’s Perri Pick Value Calculator tool to illustrate it; Perri’s model assigns values to each pick based on their value in trades – there’s a complicated methodology linked on PuckPedia’s page – and it’s a nice way of putting Vegas’ next few weeks in perspective.
  • If Vegas loses in the second round, their pick would be between 24th and 27th, with a Perri value of 15.21 to 13.11. (We’ll average it to 14.16.)
  • If Vegas loses in the conference final, their pick would be 28th or 29th, with a Perri value of 12.50 or 11.92. (We’ll average it to 12.21.)
  • If they lose in the Cup Final, their pick would be 30th, with a Perri value of 11.38.
  • If they win the Stanley Cup, their pick would be 31st, with a Perri value of 10.87. (Remember, Ottawa picks at 32nd due to the Dadonov penalty.)
Now, when you factor in the average value of a second-round pick or a first-round pick, here’s how the combined Perri pick value changes based on Vegas playoff scenarios:
  • Vegas loses in second round: 19.54
  • Vegas loses in conference final: 17.59
  • Vegas loses in Cup Final: 16.25
  • Vegas wins Cup Final: 34.38
Vegas making the conference final drops the pick value by the equivalent of a mid third-round pick. Them making the Cup Final drops the pick value (again) by the equivalent of a mid fourth-round pick. But Vegas winning the Cup, because of the boost to the value of the 2028 pick moving from the second to the first round, boosts the combined value by the equivalent of adding the 21st overall pick. (Even compared to Vegas losing in the second round, the Golden Knights winning the Cup Final is by far the best outcome for the Flames in terms of draft pick value.) Vegas winning the Cup slides the 2026 first-rounder back slightly, but upgrading the 2028 pick increases the pick value by a lot, more than making up for the 2026 pick sliding.
It’s awkward cheering for a team that’s not the Flames, especially when it’s one like Vegas that fans have mixed feelings about. All we can say: the best scenario for the Flames getting the most value out of their draft picks over the next few years is the Golden Knights winning the Stanley Cup.

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