Connor Bedard and the Chicago Blackhawks will take on the Flames Tuesday at the Scotiabank Saddledome. Both of these sides are considered heavy underdogs to make the playoffs this season, but have each displayed well rounded team play out of the gates and are looking like potential overachievers.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favorite betting angle below.

Most observers that have closely followed the Blackhawks’ opening three matchups would argue that Chicago’s team game has been quite fundamentally strong. The case that the Flames are playing like a cohesive unit is easy to make given their 3-0-0 record, but with a mark of 1-1-1 through a tough schedule, Chicago’s solid start hasn’t drawn much attention.

Like the Flames, Chicago enters this matchup off a multi-goal victory over the Oilers at Rogers Place. Given the shaky play the Oilers are offering right now, you could argue that’s actually been the easiest game on the Hawks’ schedule thus far.  The Blackhawks were competitive in an overtime loss to the Jets in Winnipeg’s season opener, and suffered an opening night loss in Utah Hockey Club’s inaugural home game.

Through three games, the Blackhawks have played to a 47.71% expected goal share in even strength play. That mark might not sound overly impressive, but given the competition faced and how they are being priced in the betting markets, it certainly indicates some overachievement.

The Blackhawks quietly suffered through some of the league’s worst injury luck last season, and are currently yielding far more proven NHL level talents than we saw throughout much of the back half of last season.

In 2023-24, Bedard spent 315 minutes playing at even strength alongside Nick Foligno and Philipp Kurashev, who were his most common linemates. Teuvo Teravainen’s addition was expected to help Bedard generate offence, and to this point Teravainen does look to be aiding Bedard so far on the top unit.

Petr Mrazek is listed as probable to start for Chicago in goal in this matchup, though it wouldn’t be shocking for Arvid Soderblom to be offered a chance to build on his excellent showing in Winnipeg last Friday.

Mrazek has played to a +1.1 GSAx and .903 save % in two starts this season, and put up a +1.6 GSAx and .907 save % in 56 games in 2023-24.

There’s probably not a fanbase in hockey whose excitement for this season was raised more significantly than that of the Flames after the opening week of the season. Calgary received plenty of contributions from all over the lineup in netting 14 goals in three games, and took down its two greatest rivals.

Jonathan Huberdeau has looked closer to the player he was in Florida in posting five points thus far. When Anthony Mantha is fully engaged, he has the skillset to be a difference-maker, and that has been the case thus far playing alongside Huberdeau. In 24.2 minutes of even strength play Huberdeau, Mantha, and Martin Pospisil hold a 54.2% expected goal share, and have looked strong to the eye.

Connor Zary has also looked excellent playing alongside Mikael Backlund, and the Flames currently look to have three lines offering legitimate offensive upside.

Rasmus Andersson and MacKenzie Weegar have both done an excellent job of driving offensive play from the back end thus far, and have combined for eight points through three games.

The Flames have played to a 51.1% expected goal share at even strength. They have generated 29.25 shots for per 60, and allowed 29.57 shots against per 60.

Yegor Sharangovich (lower body) should remain the Flames’ only notable skater missing from the lineup in this matchup.

Dustin Wolf is likely to get the start as Calgary continues to split games between he and Dan Vladar. Wolf stopped 37 of 40 shots versus the Flyers on Saturday, and played to an .893 save % and -10.1 GSAx in 17 appearances last season.

The start of the NHL season is quite volatile, as you can never be overly sure which teams will come out of the gates looking like a well-connected unit. Teams like Colorado and Edmonton are currently showing that supposed cup contenders can take some time to get in rhythm, while teams like the Blackhawks and Flames are showing what well connected team play can accomplish.

I can see how this might look like a smash-spot to back the Flames, as they look to move to 4-0 versus a Blackhawks side that is heavily favoured to earn another top-five pick in this year’s entry draft. The Blackhawks have played a sound team game thus far, though, and I’m a little wary of laying -150 though.

Despite their respective expectations entering the year, both of these teams have looked sharp out of the gates. I’m not expecting either team to bring a bad effort in this spot, and feel that a closely-contested battle featuring tight scorelines throughout is a good possibility.

As a result, I see value backing the game to finish tied through regulation at the long number of +325.