The Calgary Flames will play their most important game of the season when they host the Minnesota Wild Friday evening. While it’s going to take plenty of help, winning out in their final four games would still give the Flames a fighting chance of earning the Western Conference’s final playoff berth.

The Wild have stabilized with back-to-back overtime victories and have the opportunity to clinch a playoff berth with a win in this game.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

It appears likely that the Wild will avoid what would have been a shocking collapse and ultimately earn a playoff spot. On December 1st, the Wild held the best winning percentage in the NHL based on their record of 16-4-4 but have played to a 20th-ranked record of 27-25-3 since that point.

The Wild have dealt with one of the worst injury situations in the NHL, which has certainly played a role in their lesser results compared to earlier in the year.

At the time of his first injury this season, Kirill Kaprizov was priced as the betting favourite to win the Hart Trophy. Kaprizov returned to the lineup on Wednesday versus the San Jose Sharks and was impactful, scoring two goals and adding an assist. His 1.45 point-per-game average this season currently ranks fourth among all NHL skaters, but he has only been available in 38 games.

While Kaprizov made a strong return to action on Wednesday, Joel Eriksson Ek stole the show, recording four goals in his first game back since February 22nd to help the team earn an 8-7 overtime win. Ek is a tremendous two-way centre with solid offensive upside, and his return slots centres Frederick Gaudreau and Ryan Hartman into more appropriate roles.

The Wild have also dealt with a ton of injuries on the back end, as captain Jared Spurgeon, Brock Faber, and defensive stalwart Jonas Brodin have all missed time. Jake Middleton is still listed as day-to-day and could miss this matchup, but regardless of his status, the Wild are offering a significantly healthier lineup right now than they have for the majority of the second half.

It does seem that the Wild’s play has regressed more than an amount that can be entirely pinned on injuries, as they are just 10-10-3 since the 4 Nations Face-Off and hold some ugly underlying results in that span. They hold a 48.43% expected goal share in that span and have generated only 2.80 xGA/60.

It would have been quite an interesting story if the Wild had lost their thrilling matchup versus the Sharks, as it was an important game, and they surely would have pulled Marc-Andre Fleury if it was not the final home game of his incredible career.

While Filip Gustavsson has not officially been confirmed in goal, it’s difficult to imagine that he will not get the start in this matchup. Gustavsson holds a +17.7 GSAx rating and .915 save percentage in 55 games played this season.

The Flames will look to leave it all on the ice as they attempt to respond to Wednesday’s heartbreaking overtime loss to the Anaheim Ducks. Calgary controlled the vast majority of its matchup versus Anaheim, as it held a 15-4 edge in high-danger scoring chances and outshot the Ducks 39-23. The Flames slipped up for eight seconds, allowing two quick goals, before Cutter Gauthier ended it in overtime with his second of the night.

While scoring three goals probably should have been enough to win Wednesday’s game in specific, it was another game that likely would not have been close had the Flames finished their chances more effectively. Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau have had strong seasons, but Calgary’s lack of truly elite offensive talent will likely be the reason it suffers a painful playoff absence, and certainly not because the team has lacked commitment to winning.

Over the last 10 games, the Flames hold a 51.35% expected goal share and have allowed only 2.95 xGA/60. They have done a good job of making opponents earn their opportunities and are generating a decent output of chances on goal. Their process continues to look quite solid, but it’s tough to win in this league when you are almost never stealing any wins with potent offensive nights.

Based on today’s morning skate, head coach Ryan Huska appears to be keeping his lineup the same as we saw Wednesday versus the Ducks, with Kadri and Huberdeau reunited on the top line. To the dismay of many Flames fans, it appears that the same six skaters will play on the back end, and we will have to wait at least another game to see either of Zayne Parekh or Aydar Suniev make their NHL debuts.

Dustin Wolf will start for a sixth consecutive game. He holds a +13.4 GSAx rating and .910 save percentage in 50 appearances this season.

The Flames have fought admirably to hang around in the Wild Card race and will surely give it everything they have in this do-or-die game. Still, their lack of offensive upside has made earning wins even when they appear to be the better team quite difficult, and with Kaprizov and Ek back in the lineup, the Wild have significantly more offensive upside.

Gustavsson has also been one of the league’s very best goaltenders this season, and the Wild are a significantly better team when he starts as opposed to Fleury.

While my heart wants to see Calgary win this game, the Wild do look to be undervalued priced as only slight favourites. At -125 or better, I see value backing the Wild to secure a playoff berth in Friday’s matchup.