The Calgary Flames are massive favourites as they host the 32nd-ranked San Jose Sharks for what is a do-or-die game Sunday evening. With a betting price of -333, the Flames are the largest favourites they’ve been in any of their previous 79 games this season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The San Jose Sharks can comfortably play the role of spoiler in this matchup, having become guaranteed to finish dead last after the Chicago Blackhawks earned a point on Saturday evening. While they are just 2-6-2 in their last 10 matchups, they gave the Flames a tough test on Monday, and nearly did the Flames a favour on Wednesday when they fell 8-7 in overtime versus the Minnesota Wild.

Macklin Celebrini’s complete dominance in all areas of the ice and Will Smith’s strong second half have made this season far less painful than the 2023-24 campaign for Sharks faithful. The team has progressed modestly in terms of results, too, as it has already surpassed last season’s total of 47 points.

The Sharks will be without several key skaters in this matchup, as Mario Ferraro, Shakir Mukhamadullin, Cam Lund, and Klim Kostin are expected to be sidelined. While none of those guys are household names by any means, Ferraro and Mukhamudullin have averaged over 20 minutes per game, respectively, since the trade deadline when the team shipped top defender Jake Walman off to Edmonton.

Over the last 10 games, the Sharks hold an expected goal share of 39.84%, which is the worst mark in the league during that sample of play. During that span they allowed 33.93 shots against per 60, and their goaltenders have combined for a save percentage of just .865.

Georgi Romanov has been confirmed as the Sharks starter in this matchup, and he is arguably the best of their options currently, with highly touted prospect Yaroslav Askarov currently playing in the AHL. Romanov holds a -4.4 GSAx rating and .879 save percentage in seven appearances in the NHL this season.

The Flames enter this game off of one of their best performances of the season, in which they thoroughly outplayed the Minnesota Wild in a critical matchup. Calgary outshot Minnesota 32-18, and led 3.88 to 1.81 in expected goals. The Wild made the score more respectable with two late goals, but ultimately it was one of the Flames’ most convincing wins of the season.

Even if the Flames had earned one more point, they would still have complete control over their destiny heading into the final three matchups of the season. That thought is extremely painful to consider given that the team has suffered from a number of unlucky breaks in the final month of the season, be it near goals in critical moments, disallowed goals, or pucks that held onto the goal line by a millimetre.

All the Flames can do now is make sure they at least win this game and hope that they receive some help on the out-of-town scoreboard, which would be more than deserved.

The Flames cut it close in Monday’s matchup versus the Sharks with a slow start to the game but heavily outplayed the Sharks in the third period and will hopefully offer a more complete 60-minute effort in this matchup.

Over the last 10 games, the Flames hold a 53.37% expected goal share, which is the 10th-best mark in the NHL in that span. They have allowed only 2.80 xGA/60, which lines up with the eye test, as it’s been clear that the team is playing a well-detailed team game in pursuit of a playoff berth.

Based on today’s morning skate, head coach Ryan Huska will stick with nearly the same lineup as we saw in Friday’s convincing win over the Wild, with the only change being Joel Farabee dropping to the fourth line in favour of Martin Pospisil.

Jonathan Huberdeau – Nazem Kadri – Adam Klapka
Blake Coleman – Mikael Backlund – Matt Coronato
Yegor Sharangovich – Morgan Frost – Martin Pospisil
Ryan Lomberg – Kevin Rooney – Joel Farabee

Dustin Wolf will make a seventh consecutive start in goal. He holds a +12.9 GSAx rating and .909 save percentage in 51 appearances this season.

The Flames are rightfully gigantic favourites in this matchup, as it’s quite hard to imagine they let the season end on home ice versus a shorthanded Sharks side. The Sharks will certainly be well motivated to play the role of spoiler and end the Flames’ season in this matchup, but the talent disparity between the two rosters is quite gigantic right now.

Betting the Flames to cover the puck line at -115 is my favourite play in terms of a side or total and will surely be a popular bet among Flames faithful, which I would not argue against.

Backing Matt Coronato to record over 2.5 shots on goal at -115 is my favourite play from the game personally, as he should be well situated to continue pouring shots on target in this matchup. Coronato has had 13 shots on goal over the last four games, including four in Monday’s matchup versus San Jose.

Coronato is the primary shooter on the second line alongside Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman, a line which holds a 55.2% expected goal share in 421.2 minutes of play this season, which is the best mark of any Galgary unit to spend over 120 minutes together.