The Calgary Flames will look to keep their playoff hopes alive Tuesday evening when they host the Pacific Division-winning Vegas Golden Knights.

These teams last faced off on April 5th in Calgary, and Vegas was able to earn a win thanks to a fluky goal from Reilly Smith in overtime. Since that game, the Flames have played to a record of 3-0-1, which has them nipping at the heels of the St. Louis Blues and Minnesota Wild in the race for the final two Western Conference playoff spots.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Knights are entering the playoffs as legitimate Stanley Cup contenders once again, as they have offered strong play in all facets of the game this season and obviously have plenty of playoff experience. Thanks to solid defensive play, quality goaltending from Calgary native Adin Hill, and strong offensive productivity, the Knights hold a fifth-ranked goal differential of +54 this season.

The Knights have also been in strong form since the 4 Nations Face-Off, in particular, as they hold a points percentage of .729, which is the second-best mark in the league in that span.

In 24 games since the 4 Nations Face-Off, the Knights hold a 2.49 xGA/60 rating, which is the best mark in the NHL. As I’ve noted previously, xGA/60 was a significant indicator of playoff success last season, as three of the four conference finalists finished inside the league’s top six in the metric, and the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers had the third-best xGA/60 rating in the league.

While there are not many flaws to nitpick regarding the Knights’ play entering the postseason, the Flames do appear to be catching them at a good time, as they have nothing to play for in this matchup and may not ice their top roster.

The team’s most valuable skater, Jack Eichel, is listed as day-to-day, and it would be doubtful to see him play in this matchup given the result of the game is irrelevant for Vegas. Alex Pietrangelo is currently sidelined with an undisclosed injury and will miss this matchup.

While the Knights will likely be without two highly valuable skaters in Eichel and Pietrangelo, it would not be overly surprising to see head coach Bruce Cassidy rest a few other pieces on top of that in this matchup. Noah Hanifin has been confirmed as at least one Knights skater who will be rested in this matchup.

It’s also been confirmed that backup Ilya Samsonov will be the starting goaltender in this matchup. Samsonov has had a perfectly fine season with a +1.7 GSAx rating and .892 save percentage in 28 appearances, but he is still clearly a lesser option than Hill.

The Flames still have a somewhat realistic chance of earning a playoff spot, or at least having this game mean something.

The only outcomes from tonight’s games that would give the Flames zero chance of remaining alive with a regulation win would be a Blues regulation win coupled with the Wild getting a point in any fashion.

Based off of the betting odds of +148, there is only just a 40.32% chance of it happening.

The Flames came out slow once again in Sunday’s matchup versus the San Jose Sharks, but it was all in all a fairly strong showing with their season on the line. Calgary led 3.78 to 2.81 in expected goal share and held a 31 to 23 edge in scoring chances.

Whether they ultimately sneak in or not, Flames fans have to be proud of the effort their team has put in down the stretch. This was a team that was priced as a massive underdog to make the postseason entering the year, and they have shown no quit, playing to a record of 9-3-3 over the final 15 games to keep the dream of being a playoff team alive.

Throughout their last 15 games, the Flames hold an expected goal share of 53.26% and have allowed only 2.82 xGA/60. As all coaches seem to do, head coach Ryan Huska has made some decisions that have drawn the ire of the fan base this season, but it’s hard to dispute that his team bought in and playing a well-structured defensive game right now.

Dustin Wolf will make an eighth consecutive start in goal. He holds a +13.0 GSAx rating and .910 save percentage in 52 appearances this season.

By no means will the skaters that are in the Knights lineup roll over and accept defeat in this matchup, but they will be playing without several key pieces in a meaningless matchup. Eichel, Pietrangelo, and Hanifin are three of the Knights’ most important skaters, and it has already been confirmed that they will all be out of the lineup.

Samsonov has been significantly less effective than Hill, which could help the Flames finish chances at a higher rate than they might have if Hill was in goal.

While the Flames are catching a break that the Knights will not have several of their top pieces in the lineup, Calgary’s recent play deserves a lot of credit, and would suggest it had a decent chance regardless of who Vegas played.

At -120 or better, I see value backing the Flames to earn two points from this critical matchup.