The Calgary Flames will look to keep their faint playoff hopes alive when they host the Anaheim Ducks on Thursday evening.

The Flames return home after a three-game road trip in which they played to a record of 1-1-1 versus the Edmonton Oilers, Colorado Avalanche, and Utah Hockey Club. Calgary was a heavy underdog in each of the three matchups, and earning three points is quite respectable; however, it did still hurt the Flames’ chances of tracking down the Minnesota Wild or St. Louis Blues in the playoff race.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

Head coach Greg Cronin’s Ducks side has finally opened things up a little bit as they have played out the stretch of another non-playoff season. They have scored 3.31 goals per game over the last 15 matchups but have allowed 3.50 goals against per game. They have generated 3.45 xGF/60 in that span, which ranks seventh in the NHL, but have allowed 3.54 xGA/60, which ranks fifth worst.

Ducks GM Pat Verbeek will have an interesting decision this offseason on whether or not to bring back Cronin as bench boss for the 2025-26 campaign. While their record of 33-33-8 is roughly right where most oddsmakers and analysts expected it to be, the general consensus continues to be that he has not gotten the most out of the roster which now holds a pretty respectable amount of NHL talent.

Lukas Dostal is expected to get the start in goal. He holds a .906 save percentage and +15.9 GSAx rating in 48 appearances this season.

The Flames fought respectably once again in a tough travelling back-to-back spot in Utah on Tuesday after their shootout win the night before versus the Colorado Avalanche, but were unable to get the result that they so desperately needed. Calgary outshot Utah 34 to 28 but generated only eight high-danger scoring chances, while Utah generated 14.

While it was a more black-and-white ruling than some of the other goal reviews that have burned the Flames recently, Calgary also saw yet another lengthy review go the wrong way, which became even more of a turning point after Utah scored 32 seconds later.

After being heavily outplayed during the treacherous six-game road trip that followed the 4 Nations Face-Off, the Flames have been controlling play at a better rate recently. They hold a 49.01% expected goal share over the last 10 games, and have generated 2.99 xGF/60.

Rasmus Andersson continues to offer somewhat unconvincing play overall, which is precisely the reason trading him at the deadline for what would likely have been a great return was so enticing. Even as someone who respected GM Craig Conroy’s decision to keep his veterans, specifically in Andersson’s instance, keeping him instead of cashing in did not make much sense considering the team’s timeline. Now the team is likely forced to sign Andersson to a long-term deal, and he’ll be well into his thirties when they are truly in contention, when several of Calgary’s quality young defensive prospects are ready to play key roles.

Nazem Kadri was quiet in the Flames’ last two matchups, as he recorded only five shots on goal and zero points. Prior to that, the 34-year-old had been in a fantastic stretch of play, which included a number of critical goals. Over the last eight games, Kadri has put up seven goals and 10 points, averaging 4.12 shots per game.

Dustin Wolf has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a .909 save percentage and +13.4 GSAx rating in 46 appearances this season.

This is close to a do-or-die matchup for the Flames, as even if they go undefeated in their final eight games, they will have a total of 98 points. It’s probably going to take at least a 6-1-1 run from Calgary, coupled with a regulation win in its matchup versus the Wild, to get in, so the Flames can’t afford to drop this matchup versus the lowly Ducks.

Betting teams simply because they ‘can’t’ lose’ is not necessarily a great betting strategy, and the prices on this matchup do look fair to me. It’s not entirely an apples-to-apples comparison, but the Vancouver Canucks’ hopes of earning a playoff spot were essentially ended thanks to a 5-0 loss last night versus the Seattle Kraken.

The Ducks have still been quite poor defensively of late, but feature a dangerous young core that is finally starting to produce offence more effectively and continue to receive elite play in goal.

During their desperate push for a playoff spot, the Flames have been generating far more chances offensively, and that trend seems likely to continue in this matchup. It does seem likely that Calgary will own more of the overall play on home ice and pour a ton of chances on goal. Due to their struggles to finish scoring chances though, and the Ducks’ elite goaltending, I’m not sold on laying -167 on Calgary in this matchup.

Even in far more difficult matchups, Kadri has been pouring a ton of chances on goal recently. He stayed under his betting total of 3.5 shots on goal in Calgary’s back-to-back versus Colorado and Utah, but those were far less ideal situations. In a better rest situation versus a Ducks team that spends plenty of time in the defensive zone, there looks to be value betting Kadri to go over 3.5 shots on goal at -115.