Despite their best efforts, the Calgary Flames’ chances of earning the final Western Conference playoff spot are on life support heading into the final six games of the season. Monday’s matchup versus the 32nd-ranked San Jose Sharks is close to do-or-die, as the Flames sit six points back of the Minnesota Wild for the final playoff spot but do hold two games in hand.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Calgary suffered another heartbreaking loss on Saturday versus the Vegas Golden Knights after yet another close goal review went the wrong way for the Flames, followed by a fluky bounce on Reilly Smith’s overtime winner from below the goal line. While the Flames clearly suffered from some more bad luck versus the Knights, earning one point was a reasonable outcome given that the Knights outshot Calgary 34 to 23 and held a 12 to 6 edge in high-danger scoring chances.

Despite suffering from some tough luck recently, the Flames still hold a strong record of 6-2-2 in their last 10 matchups. They get two soft matchups coming against the Sharks and Anaheim Ducks before a critical showdown Friday with the Wild, so they can certainly still make things interesting.

It’s easy to sense the level of desperation around the team, and that has translated into a higher level of play. Over the last 10 games, Calgary holds an expected goal share of 50.91% and has allowed only 2.91 xGA/60, which is the fifth-best mark in the NHL during that stretch of play.

Dustin Wolf was rightfully named the First Star of Saturday’s matchup, as he stopped 31 of 34 shots faced to give his team a chance. At the time of writing, it’s unclear whether it will be Wolf or Dan Vladar starting in this game, but Calgary should feel pretty good about its chances regardless of who starts.

Vladar is 5-1-1 across his last seven appearances, with a save percentage of .921 and a 2.12 GAA. He has not started since last Monday in Colorado, which would suggest he will likely start tonight or in Anaheim on Wednesday.

While there’s a decent number of Flames forwards who have exhibited solid two-way play during their desperate pursuit of a playoff spot, Nazem Kadri has carried the team offensively with eight goals and 12 points over the last 10 games. Jonathan Huberdeau ranks second on the team with eight points in that span, while Matt Coronato has put up five goals and seven points.

Huberdeau, Coronato, and Morgan Frost have formed a highly effective second unit, which has done a great job of limiting opponents’ quality scoring chances. In 116.6 minutes of play, they have allowed only 2.01 xGA/60, which is the best mark of any of Calgary’s offensive lines that have played over 100 minutes together this season.

With just six games left to play, the Sharks are four points back of the Chicago Blackhawks and, in all likelihood, will enter the Draft Lottery with the highest odds of earning the first overall selection.

When bottom-feeders happen to win games this time of year, analysts are keen to point out not to take teams that are simply skating out the schedule lightly. Which is true as bottom-feeders will win roughly 30% of the time in the NHL. But there isn’t much truth to the idea that teams like San Jose can become more dangerous this time of year.

Since the trade deadline, the Sharks are 3-8-1, the Blackhawks are 3-10-2, the Boston Bruins are 3-10-2, and the Nashville Predators are 4-10-1.

The Sharks have averaged only 2.17 goals per game in 12 games since the trade deadline and generated only 2.58 xGF/60 in that span. Jake Walman was the team’s second most impactful skater this season prior to being moved at the deadline, and his loss has hurt the Sharks in all facets of the game.

Macklin Celebrini leads the team with nine points over the last 12 games, while linemate Tyler Toffoli ranks second with seven points in that span. As Celebrini, Will Smith, and William Eklund have all had strong seasons there has been plenty of cause for optimism surrounding the team, but GM Mike Grier still has his hands full in attempting to round out the roster moving forward.

Alexandar Georgiev is expected to get the start in goal. He holds an .873 save percentage and 3.69 GAA this season, which are the worst marks among goaltender to play in over 20 games this season.

This game offers two points the Flames absolutely have to earn as they attempt to chase down the Wild for the final playoff spot. While Calgary has still had a hard time generating lofty offensive outputs, it has been in significantly better form defensively of late, which has led to strong results.

The Sharks offence has not been in good form, as they have averaged just over two goals a game over the last month of action. The Flames should certainly be up for this game and be more than capable of limiting high-quality chances versus a muted Sharks attack if they keep their urgency level where it has been recently in this matchup.

This seems like a good spot to target the Flames winning this game while keeping the Sharks offence to a fairly low total. Sports Interaction is offering a parlay of Calgary to win while allowing less than three goals against at +115, and I see value with that bet.