The Calgary Flames will look to bounce back from Thursday’s ugly 8-3 loss on home ice as they host another Atlantic Division powerhouse in the defending Champion Florida Panthers.

The Flames have struggled to a record of 3-5-2 over the last 10 games, but have been excellent at home with a record of 10-4-1. With a win in this matchup Calgary could still move back into the Western Conference’s final playoff position.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

It’s been a solid start to the campaign for the Florida Panthers’, who hold a record of 18-10-2 and have looked more-or-less as expected in the early going. There’s a debate to be made that the Panthers entered the season with the lowest floor in the league. All of the most important pieces of the roster remained intact, and over the last two years they have gone back-to-back Finals, and posted a record of 112-65-16.

The Flames can expect a spirited performance from head coach Paul Maurice’s side in this matchup, as the Panthers enter off a 4-0 loss to the Vancouver Canucks on Thursday. That matchup was the first time this season that the Panthers have been shut-out.

The Panthers lost some key pieces from last season’s Cup-winning roster last offseason, including Brandon Montour, Oliver-Ekman Larsson and Vladimir Tarasenko. Those losses have been alleviated thanks to solid play Nate Schmidt on the back-end, as well as Jesper Boqvist and Mackie Samoskevich up front.

Over the last ten games the Panthers hold a 55.46% expected goal share, and have played to a record of 6-3-1. They continue to do an excellent job suppressing high-danger chances against, and have allowed just 2.68 xGA/60 in that span.

It’s well known that the Panthers feature a heavy forecheck, and they continue to chip pucks-into the offensive zone at a far greater than average rate, which is a tactic that has been copied by a number of teams around the league this season. The Flames will need to make clean zone exits as much as possible, and manage the puck effectively below the goal-line in this match-up.

While the Panthers have built a reputation as a defensive juggernaut during Maurice’s tenure, they also rank fifth in goals for per game this season, and own the leagues’ seventh most effective power play unit. Those strengths have helped to cover the surprisingly shaky play they have received in goal from Sergei Bobrovsky, who has struggled to an .892 save percentage and -4.9 GSAx in 20 appearances this season.

At the time of writing it’s unclear whether it will be Bobrovsky or backup Spencer Knight starting in this matchup. Knight has played to an .890 save % and -3.4 GSAx in 11 appearances this season.

Things really got out of hand late in Thursday’s loss, as it became a great night for the Lightning’s top stars to pad their stats after the Flames mailed it in late in the third. Coach Ryan Huska has opted to reconfigure his lineup after that loss, which isn’t necessarily surprising.

It looks as though Andrei Kuzmenko will come out of the lineup once again in favour of Jakob Pelletier. Pelletier will lineup alongside Yegor Sharangovich and Connor Zary on the third line. Blake Coleman, Mikael Backlund and Matt Coronato will form a new look second line, while the top line of Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri and Martin Pospisil looks set to remain together.

The Flames have started the month of December 2-2-1, and hold a 52.07% expected goal share in that span. Their goaltenders have combined for league-worst .814 save % in that span, though that mark is hurt by the Flames defensive collapses in the third periods of their match-ups versus Dallas and Tampa Bay.

One positive to point towards is that the Flames have scored three goals per game in that span, and they have played three elite defensive teams.

Dustin Wolf has been confirmed as the Flames’ starter in this match-up. He has played to a .909 save % and 2.84 GAA across 14 appearances this season.

This is a tough spot for the Flames, as the defending champs’ will likely bring an urgent effort after being shut-out on Thursday. The Flames have been excellent on home-ice however, and at their best we have seen them compete versus high quality teams with a well structured defensive game. Wolf has also been in considerably better form than either of Bobrovsky or Knight thus far this season.

The prices on sides in this game look fair to me, and the over 5.5 is probably my favourite play in terms of a side or total.

It once again looks to me as though there is value backing Zary to record a point at +125. He continues to look like the Flames most dangerous skater, and has been rewarded with a four-game point streak. I’m not entirely sold on his role alongside Sharangovich and Pelletier, but he will still play on the top power play unit, and that trio does still hold high offensive upside.

He has recorded a single point in eight of 13 match-ups since moving to centre, which is an excellent mark considering this prop sits at +125.