The Calgary Flames will play their final matchup before the holiday break Saturday afternoon when they host the Chicago Blackhawks.

After consecutive overtime losses to the Ottawa Senators and Boston Bruins, Calgary is now 11-4-3 on home ice this season. It currently sits one point back of the Vancouver Canucks for the final Western Conference playoff spot.

The Blackhawks are just 5-11-2 on the road, which suggests the Flames have a good chance of continuing their dominant play on home ice in this matchup. However, the Blackhawks are 4-3-0 under new head coach Anders Sorensen, including three straight regulation wins entering this matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

At times it seems that the head coaches of rosters like Chicago, which are always destined to finish near the bottom of the league, can get somewhat of a “Get Out Of Jail Free” card for their questionable decisions. That seemed to be the case in many instances for former Blackhawks head coach Luke Richardson, but the clamouring for change inside the market had become significant prior to Richardson finally being relieved of his duties on Dec. 5.

Some less informed observers have stated a belief that the coaching change was made simply to try and kickstart Connor Bedard, but that opinion doesn’t seem to be shared by full-time Blackhawks beat writers. Sorensen was worthy of a promotion based on his strong work in the AHL, and based on the Hawks’ lack of progress it seemed it was fair to let Richardson go.

The Blackhawks’ play has looked improved under Sorensen thus far, specifically on the offensive side of things where they seem to be benefiting from more modern offensive tactics.

2022 13th overall pick Frank Nazar earned a call-up with his 24 points in 21 games in the AHL this season, and boosts the upside of the Blackhawks’ offensive core, though he has not recorded a point in his initial four games of the season.

It has been confirmed that Seth Jones will make his season debut in this match-up, and it’s unclear who will come out of the lineup as a result. There’s a case to be made that T.J. Brodie deserves to be the odd-man out, as Kevin Korchinski, Louis Crevier, and Nolan Allan have all played well under Sorensen.

Petr Mrazek is expected to start in goal for Chicago in this match-up. Mrazek has played to a -0.1 GSAx rating and .905 save percentage in 20 appearances this season.

The Flames certainly played well enough to win Thursday’s match-up versus the Senators, but were unable to get a third marker past the red-hot Linus Ullmark. An inability to finish off scoring chances at a league average rate has been a consistent flaw for the Flames this season, and that was the case in that matchup as they scored just two goals from 32 shots on target. Calgary generated 36 scoring chances to Ottawa’s 26, and led 3.50 to 2.81 in expected goals.

The Flames’ newly-formed top line of Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau and Martin Pospisil was notably dominant once again. With that trio on the ice the Flames out-attempted 21-5, and held a 73.5% expected goal share.

Flames fans seem to be fairly split between rooting for losses and wins at this point, as it does seem that they are destined to finish in the ‘mushy-middle’ of the NHL standings. With respect to those who simply want a high draft pick, it’s definitely a shame that not everyone can fully appreciate the Flames’ over-achievement because head coach Ryan Huska’s side has competed admirably.

Despite their 3-2-3 record in December, the Flames have certainly played at the level that is expected given the current upside of the roster. They hold a 48.49% expected goal share in eight games this month, and outside of their 8-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning, have been right there in every match-up.

Dustin Wolf is expected to get the start Saturday. He has played to a .913 save % and 2.72 GAA in 16 appearances this season.

The Blackhawks have been playing better since Sorensen was promoted to head coach, as each of their four wins in his first seven games as bench boss have been fairly convincing. Nazar, Korchinski, and Nolan Allan have all looked great under Sorensen thus far.

The Flames played quite respectably in their overtime losses to the Senators and Bruins, and aside from their ugly performance versus the Lightning, it’s been another solid homestand to this point. I can see the case for backing the Flames here, as they enter off back-to-back tough-luck losses against teams that are in excellent form.

The Flames should win this game more often than not, but the Blackhawks do look like a side that is undervalued in the betting market right now. For that reason, backing Calgary at -165 doesn’t look overly appealing, as it seems likely that the Hawks can hang around and make this a competitive match-up more often than their betting price suggests.

It seems highly unlikely the Flames will ever get blown out in this match-up though, and I think it makes sense to expect the game to remain close at all junctures.

Five of the Flames’ last nine home games have required overtime, and at a long number of +320, I see value backing that trend to continue in this match-up.