The Toronto Maple Leafs and Calgary Flames will square off for the first time this season Tuesday at the Scotiabank Saddledome.
The Leafs were able to snap their three-game pointless streak with an upset win over the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday, which marked the first contest of their four-game road trip. They hold a record of just 4-6-0 over the last 10 games, which has allowed the Florida Panthers to pass them for the Atlantic Division lead, and has Toronto currently lined up to play the Ottawa Senators in the opening round of the playoffs.
After a tough-luck loss on Saturday evening at home, the Flames were able to grind out a 3-2 win as underdogs in Seattle the following evening with backup Dan Vladar in goal. Dustin Wolf (19-9-2, .917 SV%) is expected to start Tuesday, as the Flames look to build on their excellent 16-8-3 record on home ice this season.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Maple Leafs vs. Flames odds

Maple Leafs Moneyline odds
-145
Flames Moneyline odds
+131
Puck Line odds
Maple Leafs -1.5 (+174), Flames +1.5 (-200)
Game Total
5.5 Goals (Over -117, Under +104)
Odds courtesy of Pinnacle and are subject to change.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Given that the Leafs were inches away from blowing a 4-1 third period lead, it might not quite be fair to say Saturday’s performance was truly a statement game, but any win in Edmonton versus the cup favourite Oilers has to be viewed as a positive nonetheless.
The Leafs have not been playing up to their potential or power ranking in the betting markets for what has become a fairly large sample of play. Over the last 20 games, the Leafs are 11-9-0 and hold a negative goal differential, scoring 3.10 goals per game while allowing 3.30 against.
Head coach Craig Berube’s side displayed excellent defensive play throughout most of November, which had many observers stating this spring could be different for the Leafs. Their defensive game has fallen off considerably over the last 20 games, though, as across all strengths the Leafs hold an expected goal share of just 46.53%, and have allowed 3.43 xGA/60 since December 19th.
An ugly injury situation is certainly somewhat of a valid excuse for their lesser play, as the team has spent most of that sample with numerous impactful players on the IR.
As John Tavares, Matthew Knies and Jake McCabe have all returned from their respective injuries, the Leafs played with a much more complete lineup versus the Oilers. However, Mitch Marner and Oliver Ekman-Larsson were both injured in that matchup, and are considered day-to-day.
Marner sits fourth in the league with 70 points in 52 games played this season, and would leave a huge hole on the Leafs’ top line if he is unable to play in this matchup. Jonas Siegel of The Athletic reports Marner is doubtful to play in this game. Max Domi took over Marner’s spot on the top line at yesterday’s practice.
No/1 goaltender Anthony Stolarz is reportedly close to returning from injury, but it will likely be still be Joseph Woll getting the start in goal in this matchup. Woll holds a +12.9 GSAx rating (seventh-best in NHL) and .909 save percentage in 28 games this season.

Calgary Flames

Based on all of the trends involving the Flames this season, they were in a tough spot in Sunday’s matchup versus the Kraken, particularly after reportedly dealing with a messy travel situation the night before. The Flames were able to earn a 3-2 win nonetheless, proving oddsmakers wrong for making them a heavy underdog versus one of the league’s worst teams.
On top of earning two critical points, there were a number of positives from the game which could be noteworthy moving forward. Vladar stopped 29 of 31 shots faced, and held a 1.92 GSAx rating in the game. If the Flames can start to get more points from games in which Wolf is not the starter, it could be the difference in a close playoff race down the stretch.
Morgan Frost scored a beauty versus Seattle, marking his first point with his new side. Frost has high offensive upside, and if he can inspire more production from the Flames’ third line it could be massive for a team that currently ranks 28th in goals scored per game.
Kevin Bahl’s absence from the top four was notable once again, as the Flames’ top pairing of Joel Hanley and Rasmus Andersson was caved in badly by the Kraken. The Flames were out-attempted 27-4 with Hanley and Andersson on the ice together, and outshot 11-3.
At the time of writing, the Flames have not yet held their morning skate, so any potential lineup changes are currently unclear. I’d be shocked to see head coach Ryan Huska shake up his top three offensive units, but it would make sense to see some changes on the back end.
Wolf is expected to get the start in goal after resting in Sunday’s matchup. He will be looking to better his case for the Calder Trophy, and better his elite .917 save percentage and +12.5 GSAx rating.

Best bets for Maple Leafs vs. Flames

While Toronto’s play has fallen off considerably for a relatively large sample of play, the talent on the roster still suggests the Leafs should find better form soon. They have a fairly noteworthy rest advantage in this matchup, as they have played just twice since last Wednesday, and they travelled to Calgary Saturday evening.
Marner’s potential absence is highly noteworthy though, as he is the team’s leading scorer and has been a needle-mover in all areas of the ice. It seems unlikely the Leafs will ever get blown out in this spot, but they may not be able to create much separation from a Flames side that has played a number of close contests of late.
The Flames continue to struggle to generate offence, which continues to result in a number of matchups featuring close scorelines throughout, as we saw in both weekend matchups.
This looks like a good matchup to take a chance backing the game to require overtime at a long number of +325, and I would bet it down to +315.
Best bet: Regulation Tie +325 (Pinnacle, Play to +315)