For the second time in eight days, the Calgary Flames will visit Canada Life Centre to take on the Western Conference-leading Winnipeg Jets.

The Flames were able to steal a 3-1 victory last Saturday thanks to a spectacular performance from Dustin Wolf, who stopped 38 of 39 shots, to lift Calgary to a win over Jets backup goaltender Eric Comrie.

Calgary is a significantly larger underdog in Sunday’s rematch as it is currently priced at +213 after playing Saturday night in Minnesota. The Flames will likely start backup Dan Vladar as a result.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Calgary’s offence has come alive during its current three-game winning streak, as it has scored 13 combined goals. Two of those 13 were empty-netters, but it’s certainly still a step in the right direction for a team which has mainly found success in low-scoring affairs this season.

Saturday’s win over the Wild marked just the third time Calgary has won while allowing four goals against this season, and only the sixth time it has scored five goals or more in a game.

While the final score suggested a fairly high-event game, that was not necessarily an accurate depiction of the matchup. The Flames generated only seven high-danger scoring chances, but did a good job of finishing their quality chances, which has not typically been a strength of the team.

Andrei Kuzmenko has the potential to be one of the team’s more potent scorers when true to form, but has had a highly underwhelming campaign to this point. He broke through with two goals on Saturday, and also scored in last Saturday’s matchup versus Winnipeg.

The Flames suffered a tough loss in Saturday’s matchup, as Kevin Bahl was forced to exit the game due to injury and is considered doubtful for this matchup. Over the last 10 games, Bahl averaged 20:02 of time on ice, playing on the top defensive pairing alongside Rasmus Andersson.

Over the last 10 games, the Flames hold an expected goal share of 46.9%, and have allowed 28.81 shots against per 60. Those numbers are made much worse thanks to last week’s performance versus the Jets, which was from an analytical perspective the worst of the sample.

Vladar holds an .889 save percentage and 3.03 GAA this season, but did play well in his last start versus the St. Louis Blues, stopping 23 of 25 shots in a 2-1 loss.

Generally, if you see Wolf confirmed for the front end of a back-to-back, it’s best to bet against the Flames early on before the following game if you are interested in doing so, or wait until closer to puck drop in the second leg of the back-to-back to bet on Calgary if you are hoping to do so. We have consistently seen the betting lines swing heavily in those situations, which has been the case once again ahead of this game, as the Jets originally opened at -210 and are now -242.

The Jets suffered somewhat of a tough-luck loss last Saturday versus the Flames, before playing what head coach Scott Arniel dubbed one of their worst games of the season Monday in Utah, losing 5-2 and playing an uncharacteristically awful game defensively.

The team responded well to Arniel’s post-game comments on Monday, as they bounced back with a statement win on the road over the Colorado Avalanche the following night, before returning the favour against Utah on Friday with a 5-2 victory.

Over the last 10 games, the Jets are 6-3-1 with a 52.17 percent expected goal share, and hold a goal differential of +8. They continue to do a better than average job of preventing high-danger scoring chances, which has helped Connor Hellebuyck to continue posting gaudy results in goal.

Nikolaj Ehlers has been in spectacular form entering this game, as he has recorded four goals and 11 points over the last 10 games. He is a key piece of the team’s league-leading top power-play unit, and continues to carry the team’s second line to strong results.

The Jets’ current second unit of Ehlers, Vladislav Namestnikov, and Cole Perfetti has outscored opponents 15-6 this season. Perfetti and Ehlers combined for four goals in the Jets’ win on Friday evening, including three from Perfetti who netted his first career hat trick.

Jets top defender Josh Morrissey’s status for this game is unclear, as he missed yesterday’s practice due to illness and is considered a game-time decision.

It’s also not been confirmed whether or not the Jets will start Hellebuyck or Comrie, which obviously holds plenty of handicapping significance. Hellebuyck has made three straight starts, so it is certainly possible Arniel will opt to rest the Vezina favourite in this matchup.

Comrie holds a -3.3 GSAx and .904 save percentage in 11 games this season. He has already faced the Flames twice this year, and is 1-1-0 in those outings with a save percentage of .900.

The Jets are 19-5-3 on home ice this season, and own the league’s best goal differential of +53. They are catching the Flames in a favourable spot here, and I believe they’ll bring a spirited performance with last week’s loss fresh in their minds. If Hellebuyck and Morrissey play, backing the Jets to cover the puck line would be my lean in terms of a side.

This looks like a good matchup to back the Jets’ red-hot second line, especially Ehlers, who has looked quite dangerous so far this week.

Over the last five games, Ehlers has had 36 shot attempts and 18 shots on goal. He should get plenty of opportunities in this game, as the Jets’ second line will get some favourable matchups, and the Flames penalty kill has also struggled, succeeding just 72.3% of the time this season.

At +220, I see value backing Ehlers to score a goal and would play it down to +210.