The Calgary Flames will look to keep their playoff hopes on life support and earn two desperately needed points when they take on the high-powered Colorado Avalanche Monday.

The Avalanche failed to help the Flames out in their last matchup, as they fell in regulation versus the scorching hot St. Louis Blues. Still, the Avs are 8-2-1 since the trade deadline, and look very capable of a deep run this spring.

The Flames suffered another frustrating defeat on Saturday at the hands of the rival Edmonton Oilers, falling 3-2 in overtime after a spirited effort. This matchup will be the third of the season between these two sides, and Colorado won both previous matchups by scores of 4-2.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

It’s going to take a special run for the Flames to sneak into the playoffs at this point. A mark of 7-2-1 in the final 10 games would bring Calgary to a total of 95 points, which is likely the minimum total the Minnesota Wild and Blues will achieve. Calgary does have a head-to-head matchup with the struggling Wild on April 11th, which could be critical if it is to get on a tear in the next 10 days.

While earning just one point from the last two matchups versus the Stars and Oilers has minimized the Flames’ hopes of earning the final Wild Card spot, the team can certainly be proud of the efforts they put forth in those games. The Flames were clearly the better team versus Dallas and did play a more well-rounded game than the Oilers on Saturday, aside from failing to keep likely Hart Trophy winner Leon Draisaitl in check.

The Flames outshot the Oilers 28 to 25 and led 2.79 to 2.50 in expected goals. Calgary’s inability to finish was a problem once again, and will likely go down as the greatest reason it comes up just shy of earning a surprising playoff berth.

Saturday’s game truly was the ultimate exhibit of why Draisaitl should win the MVP this season. It’s easy to say that given Draisaitl ultimately scored the two critical goals, but on top of that, the Flames dominated the Oilers when Draisaitl’s line wasn’t on the ice but were outchanced heavily when Draisaitl’s unit was on the ice.

In the time since the Flames’ nightmarish six-game road trip ended on March 6th, they have been playing at a higher level, even if it’s only resulted in a record of 5-3-2. They have played to an expected goal share of 48.79% in those 10 matchups and have scored 2.70 goals for per game.

Splitting up Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri continues to have head coach Ryan Huska’s top-six looking more balanced, as both of the top units have been productive of late.

In 78.9 minutes of even-strength play, Huberdeau, Matt Coronato, and Morgan Frost hold a 58.0% expected goal share and generated 3.04 xGF/60.

Dan Vladar is expected to get the start in this matchup, as he has not played since March 22nd, and Dustin Wolf has fallen into a less dominant stretch of play. Vladar is 4-1-1 in his last six starts and holds a .915 save percentage and 2.19 GAA in those outings.

The Flames saw firsthand on March 14th how dominant the Avalanche have become since GM Joe Sakic bolstered their lineup at the deadline, as Colorado heavily outplayed the Flames in their own building en route to a 4-2 victory. Since the deadline, the Avalanche are 8-2-1, and have scored 3.55 goals per game while allowing only 1.91 goals against per game.

Head coach Jared Bednar has considerably altered the composition of his top two offensive lines since these teams last met, shifting Martin Necas down to the second line alongside Brock Nelson and Valeri Nichushkin.

Necas is a zone-entry machine and, like MacKinnon, is a great playmaker off the rush. While Necas and MacKinnon were highly effective together and likely will be reunited at times in losing game scripts this postseason, the current combination offers a more balanced look.

The Avalanche hold a 53.98% expected goal share over the last 10 games and have generated 31 shots per 60. The additions of Nelson and Charlie Coyle, and the return of Nichushkin, have made the top-nine much more formidable and led to better outputs of quality attempts on goal.

Gabriel Landeskog appears to be quite close to returning from a grueling three-year rehab but will not play in this matchup.

Scott Wedgewood has been confirmed as Monday’s starting goaltender. He holds a .907 save percentage and 2.41 GAA in 20 appearances this season.

The Flames did not get much luck in having to play all three matchups versus the Avs in the second half of this season, as they are clearly a drastically better team right now than early on in the campaign. While the Flames have fought admirably in most of their recent matchups, their inability to finish at a high rate could be a particularly notable concern in this matchup.

At -106, backing the Avs would be my favourite play in terms of backing a side, but there looks to be more value in the prop market.

While the Avalanche have been excellent defensively of late, there still looks to be value backing Coronato to record three or more shots on goal at a long price of +146.

Coronato has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of the last eight games, including the last matchup versus Colorado. He is well situated to continue offering comparable shot volume moving forward, playing on a quality second line alongside two pass-first players in Frost and Huberdeau, as well as the Flames’ top power-play unit, which has been in solid form.