The Flames return home from a three-game Eastern road trip to host the Kings, who lead the Pacific Division with a 9-4-3 record.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

It was highly apparent based on last season’s exit interviews that the key pieces of the Kings roster were excited to move from playing the 1-3-1 in their first full season under coach Jim Hiller.

They were consistently one of the leagues best defensive teams throughout former head coach Todd McLellan’s tenure. That has held true so far this season despite their adjusted tactics. They hold the leagues second best xGA/60 and have allowed only 2.88 goals against where it counts. They have also allowed only 24.56 shots against per hour of play, which is the second best mark in the NHL.

The roster is littered with strong two-way forwards, and also holds a number of underrated blue-liners such as Brandt Clarke and Jordan Spence.

It’s likely the Kings will remain one of the leagues best defensive sides based on the composition of the roster, and if their goaltending tandem of Darcy Kuemper and David Rittich can play to league average results should prove to be very stingy.

Darcy Kuemper is expected to get the start after resting Saturday versus Columbus. Kuemper has played to a -2.5 GSAx and save percentage of just .895 in eight appearances this season.

While the Kings remain an elite defensive side, they have looked more threatening from an offensive perspective thus far. They rank 12th in the league with 3.38 goals for per game, and rank ninth in expected goals for per 60.

Coach Ryan Huska likely feels content with the compete level his side displayed throughout its three game road swing, and grabbing three of six possible points is far from a bad result. In the three matchups the Flames held a +16 shot differential, and did a fairly good job of insulating Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar to shots they are supposed to save.

The Flames aren’t rostering enough true play-drivers to own more of the overall play too often, and it’s always going to be important to avoid the critical mistakes leading to chances in the best areas of the ice. Especially if the offence continues to struggle as we have seen recently. The Flames are allowing 31.03 shots against per 60 this season, and are getting outshot by an average of 3.5 shots per hour.

As Robert Munnich notes here, a number of the Flames supposed top forwards have been far from productive recently.

After a much improved start to the season relative to his tenure as a Flame, Jonathan Huberdeau has gone cold with just two points in his last eight games. That’s a huge concern, and the possibility that the 31 year-old is simply never going to be close to what he was in Florida seems very real.

Nazem Kadri has also struggled offensively of late, and Yegor Sharangovich doesn’t quite look like the player he was last season, either.

The only real positive to point towards from an offensive perspective right now has been the excellent play of Matt Coronato, who put up three goals and four points over the team’s four game road trip.

Dustin Wolf is expected to get the start in this matchup. He has played to a .906 save % and 3.10 GAA in seven appearances this season.

The Kings have been more than deserving of their division leading 9-4-3 record. They have remained one of the leagues best defensive sides after scrapping the 1-3-1, but appear to be taking steps forward from an offensive perspective. They catch the Flames in a fairly tough spot here, as they return home from a three game Eastern road swing.

At -140 or better I see value backing the Kings to earn a win on the road in this matchup.

I also see value backing Fiala to record over 2.5 shots on goal. The Kings second line has been dominant this season, and has helped Fiala rack up a team leading 10.61 shots on goal per 60 average. He’s been quiet in the Kings last two matchups, but the Flames provide a good matchup for him to bounce-back from a shot volume perspective.