The Calgary Flames will wrap up their four-game road trip with a date in Pittsburgh Saturday evening. They have collected just one point in the opening three games, and dropped to 3-5-4 on the road with yesterday’s 5-2 loss in Columbus.

The Penguins have allowed the most goals against in the NHL this season, but enter this matchup with back-to-back regulation wins over the Canucks and Bruins. They are 4-4-2 over the last ten games, and 5-6-2 at home this season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

No coach is pleased with his team’s effort in all 82 games, and in general consistently high level of urgency has been a strength for the overachieving Flames this season. Their outings in Detroit and Columbus were among a short list of notably lacklustre performances, and Ryan Huska was critical of his group following last night’s game.

The Flames have scored just 2.21 goals per game this month, and likely won’t be able to score their way out of trouble too often based on their lack of elite offensive talents. Still, they hold the leagues lowest shooting percentage in that span and generated 2.82 xGF/60.

Thir roster composition suggests the Flames likely won’t finish chances at a league average rate this season, but their are some positives about their game which could prove particularly advantageous in this match-up. We have seen them generate quality looks with a heavy forecheck at times this season, and the Penguins have struggled to manage the puck in the defensive zone.

While the Flames roster lacks elite offensive talent, it does feature better than average scoring upside depth further down the card. More consistent production from the three top units is needed for the Flames to bounce-back offensively, as they probably won’t have a player finish close to a point-per-game this season.

Dan Vladar is expected to get the start in goal after Dustin Wolf started yesterday in Columbus. He has played to a .905 save percentage and 2.59 GAA this season.

The battle for the final Wildcard spot in the East looks pretty soft, and for that reason the Penguins season isn’t entirely dead despite their horrid start. They sit only three points back of the Flyers for the final spot, though it’s not easy to make a case that their results will improve enough to close the gap in the remaining 25 games.

Kyle Dubas inherited a tough situation, which does seem to be being forgotten as people criticize the former Leafs GM. While it’s fair to point out the Pens’ roster was headed for some bad years, Dubas’ signings of defenders Matt Grzelcyk and Adam Graves have been complete disasters and key reasons the team has been so awful defensively.

The Penguins hold the sixth worst expected goals against in the NHL this season, and have been visibly awful at avoiding mistakes in the key areas of the ice.

It made sense to see Mike Sullivan healthy scratch both Graves and Grzelcyk versus Vancouver on Wednesday, and it did lead to a win over the Canucks in a favourable spot, though they still almost managed to blow a 5-1 lead. Grzelcyk drew back in versus his former side last night, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him back out of the lineup for this match-up if Owen Pickering is available.

Regardless, it does seem likely that the Pens’ will prove to be a better team on nights where one or both of Graves and Grzelcyk are benched in favour of younger talents such as Ryan Shea and Jack St. Ivany moving forward.

Kris Letang’s play has also fallen off considerably, and he has also struggled in the defensive aspects of the game this season. Erik Karlsson has been driving play in the right direction overall and is far from the biggest problem on the back end, but it seems hard to imagine the Pens’ defensive play improving too drastically this season.

They have generated 3.21 xGF/60 in the month of November, which ranks 11th in the league. They have shot just 8.27% in that span, but have enough scoring talent to suggest they may be due for positive regression in terms of finishing.

Alex Nedeljkovic will likely get the start in this match-up. He has struggled to an .877 save % and 3.42 GAA in 11 games played this season.

The Penguins suffered a tough luck loss when these teams last met in what was a fairly high event match-up. They may continue to be a slightly improved side with their adjusted defensive units, and have appeared due for positive offensive regression for some time now.

The Flames form has been quite disappointing to start this road trip after they won a string of very well played games on home ice. From an offensive perspective this match-up provides another good opportunity to get right, though I have been wrong in thinking that over the last two games in Detroit and Columbus.

When the Flames are at their best this season it’s likely going to mean winning lower event match-ups in which they held strong attention to detail. Still, a total of 6 for a Penguins game is quite low, as the Pens’ have been one of the leagues most high event teams. The Flames lack of production over a fairly large sample is the key reason why, but I think they can take advantage of a Pens’ side that doesn’t manage the puck well in the defensive zone to generate more offence tonight.

While the Pens’ also played a notably low scoring match-up yesterday, that likely had more to do with the opponent, as Bruins games have averaged just 3.6 combined goals during Joe Sacco’s brief tenure. Tristan Jarry also was surprisingly excellent, and I’m not convinced Nedeljkovic will be as sharp in goal tonight for Pittsburgh.

The Penguins offence still features plenty of high-end talents though, and has generated a lot of chances of late.

At -125 or better I see value backing the over in this match-up.