The Calgary Flames will look to bounce-back after a spirited loss in the Battle of Alberta, as they head in to Montreal for a date with the Canadiens. This is the first match-up of the season in which the Flames have been a road favourite, which says a lot about the form of coach Martin St. Louis’ rebuilding Canadiens side.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Flames snapped their four game losing streak with an excellent showing Friday versus the Devils, and played quite respectably in a losing effort versus the Oilers Sunday. They held a 48.06% expected goal share in those two match-ups, and looked far better than they had throughout their ugly losing skid.

After a late start to the year due to injury, Yegor Sharangovich broke through with his first goal of the season Sunday versus the Oilers. He lead the team with 31 goals last season, and if he can trend into top form will provide a significant boost offensively.

Sharangovich remained alongside Jonathan Huberdeau and Anthony Mantha at the morning skate. In 16.6 minutes together that trio owns a 71.4% expected goal share, and has generated 3.63 xGF/60. They should get some favourable minutes in this soft match-up, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Huberdeau and Mantha exhibit a little extra jump tonight in a match-up at the Bell Centre.

Dustin Wolf is expected to get the start in this match-up. After a tremendous start to the season he has come down to earth having allowed 12 goals against in his last three appearances, though ugly defensive play from the Flames was the main reason why. He holds a .907 save % and -1.0 GSAx in five games played this season.

It was always going to be a rebuilding season for the Canadiens, but their overall level has still been far worse than expected. They have allowed 32.69 shots against per 60, and generated only 24.35 shots for per 60. They hold the leagues worst expected goal differential, and second worst actual goal differential.

Playing behind another team, Sam Montembeault would likely be a lock to secure a role on Canada’s 4 Nations Cup team this February. While his .894 save % and 3.43 GAA look pretty ugly, he holds a +1.3 GSAx in eight appearances, and played to a +3.3 GSAx last season. He has been confirmed as tonight’s starter.

The Canadiens defensive depth looks like a clear concern for the time being. Kaiden Guhle has struggled in top pairing minutes alongside Mike Matheson, and while Lane Hutson has shown high offensive upside as expected, he is getting exposed at the other end of the ice.

The Canadiens have been among the leagues very worst sides defensively, and don’t seem likely to turn things around anytime soon. They aren’t rostering enough quality NHL talents to own much of the overall play, and continue to spend plenty of time playing in the defensive zone where they have consistently offered lapses in coverage.

The Flames opened at -110 in this match-up, and at that price held clear betting value. At the current number of -130 I would pass on backing Calgary, though it would be my clear lean.

This does look like a good spot to buy-low on last season’s leading goal-scorer in Sharangovich in the prop markets. He’s had 10 shot attempts over the last two games. Both of those match-ups were fairly tight-checking affairs, and he should get more space and opportunity to work in the offensive zone tonight.

At +100 or better I see value backing Sharangovich to record over 2.5 shots on goal