The Flames will continue their three game road trip Thursday as they take on the Bruins at TD Garden.

The Bruins have been the NHL’s best regular season team over the previous two seasons, as they managed 244 points in the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons combined. They have been one of the NHL’s biggest disappointments thus far this season and that notion is reflected in the betting market as Bruins’ moneylines hold a -27.5% ROI this season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

After a gritty comeback victory Tuesday in Montreal, the Flames are one of only 12 teams offering a record better than .500 on the road this season. The Flames out-shot the Canadiens 35-24, and held a 12-9 edge in high danger chances at even strength.

Anthony Mantha suffered a lower body injury early on in that match-up, which lead to a makeshift second line of Jonathan Huberdeau, Yegor Sharangovich and Martin Pospisil. Versus Montreal that unit held an 88.7% expected goal share, and it looks like they will remain together based on today’s morning skate.

Aside from that, Ryan Huska looks to be keeping his lineup the same as it was Tuesday in this match-up.

Dustin Wolf has been confirmed as the Flames starter in this match-up. He has played to a +0.7 GSAx and .908 save % in six appearances this season, and earned the victory Tuesday with a strong performance.

The Bruins record breaking 135 point 2022-23 campaign seems to be long gone, and it is beginning to seem clear they were overvalued entering this season because of their success in the previous two campaigns.

Their offensive core has been a clear concern this season, as David Pastrnak has looked to be the only truly dynamic forward in the majority of their match-ups. For years they offered one of the leagues most reliable 1-2 punches down the middle with Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, but suddenly their centre depth has been a significant concern.

They have allowed 28.7 shots against per 60 this season, and hold an expected goal share of just 48.39 in even strength play.

Elias Lindholm has struggled to find the level of play he previously offered to the Flames in a role as the Bruins top center. Lindholm wasn’t great in Calgary last season, and offered disappointing play to the Canucks. Based on today’s morning skate, Bruins coach Jim Montgomery has opted to demote Lindholm to the second line and offer Pavel Zacha the role as 1C once again.

While Zacha has also struggled out of the gates, he and Pastrnak were effective in even strength play together last season.

The Bruins have been overvalued all season long, and outside of preseason expectations, it’s hard to make a case to back them at this kind of a number right now. At their opening price of +145 the Flames looked pretty tempting, but the market looks to have adjusted accurately as the Flames are now just +125.

Backing Zacha to record a point at +120 does look like a good bet, as he bumps back up to the top line alongside Pastrnak and Tyler Johnson. Zacha put up 59 points last season, and has the offensive upside to produce far more than we have seen thus far. If he can start to look more like the player he was a year ago moving forward prices like this won’t be around for long, and the Flames provide a better than average match-up for offensive production.

I’m also happy to go back to Sharangovich to record over 2.5 shots on goal at +120 after his five shot performance in Montreal. He is arguably the team’s purest goal-scorer, and remains in good roles alongside Huberdeau at even strength and on the top power play unit.

The Bruins have been far less stout defensively this season than in previous years, yet the number to back Sharangovich going over 2.5 is still ten cents better than it was in Montreal.