Calgary will complete its three-game Eastern road swing with a date versus Buffalo on Saturday afternoon.

Though the Flames have collected three more points than the Sabres with both sides having played 14 games, Buffalo is a considerable favourite at -140 in this matchup. The Sabres have played to a 4-4 record at KeyBank Center this season, and enter off back-to-back convincing victories over the Senators and Rangers.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Flames did well to hang around versus a determined Bruins side in Boston, and claim a point. The Bruins led 16-12 on high danger chances in the game and probably deserved the victory, but it was the kind of spirited effort that has made Calgary a lovable side early on this season.

Over the last 10 games, Calgary has played to a record of 3-5-2, and holds a -12 goal differential. They have allowed 32.72 shots against per 60 in those matchups, and 3.35 xGA/60. Boston managed 38 shots towards Dustin Wolf Thursday.

Ryan Huska noted that he viewed the Flames’ 5-1 loss in Utah as the worst performance of the season, and it was probably the only instance where the team’s compete level was entirely unacceptable. Since that loss, the Flames have gone 2-1-1, and have played at a far more respectable level in each matchup.
Based on Friday’s practice, it looks like the only change to the lineup in this game will be Tyson Barrie coming out of the lineup in favour of Jake Bean.

The signs were there that the Sabres had not been as entirely awful as their record suggested this season, and now that they are finishing chances at a more standard rate, they’re finding better results. In their last 10 games, they hold a record of 5-4-1, and own a goal differential of +7 in that span while playing to an expected goal share of 49.35%.

Coach Lindy Ruff has found a more effective combination on the back end, and suddenly the Sabres defence core doesn’t look to be the weakness it was throughout most of the last several seasons. Captain Rasmus Dahlin has been better of late after an ugly start to the season, and has found chemistry alongside Bowen Byram on the top pair.

Former first-overall pick Owen Power has also offered better play while playing alongside Jacob Bryson, who is making the most of an opportunity to skate on the second pairing. In 26.4 minutes together at even strength they hold a 56.4% expected goal share.

It was well known that Tage Thompson battled through a significant wrist injury last season, and had a down year offensively with just 56 points. He’s had an excellent start to this year with 16 points and nine goals, and has formed a dominant top line alongside J.J. Peterka and Alex Tuch.

Entering the year, I viewed the second line of Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens and Zach Benson as one potential edge over other teams in contention for Wild Card spots out East. Quinn and Cozens have had nightmare starts to the campaign, and Buffalo’s second line has been a clear flaw thus far. Buffalo’s second line looked good Thursday versus the Rangers ,though, combining for three points, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see that unit prove more effective moving forward.

Flames fans are also probably happy to see that former Oiler Ryan McLeod has had an excellent start to the campaign, with nine points in 14 games played. He ranks 134th in the league with 2.47 points per 60 minutes of play.

There has been a fairly significant disparity between the play of goaltenders Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi thus far. Luukkonen has stopped .909% of shots faced and holds a +3.4 GSAx rating, while Levi holds a save percentage of just .878 with a -4.6 GSAx rating.

The Sabres have taken some time to get going after opening the year with back-to-back losses overseas in Prague, but seem to be finding their game of late. If UPL is to start this game, I see value backing them at the current price of -135, and would play down to -145.

Backing Cozens to record over 2.5 shots on goal at +105 also looks like a good bet. He’s gone over 2.5 in eight of 14 games this season, which suggests +105 is a good number in any matchup. The Flames are allowing far more shots against than an average side of late, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Buffalo’s second line start to play at higher level as well.