The Calgary Flames put forth another effort to be proud of Saturday night, as they collected a point in Seattle based on the strengths of yet another strong defensive performance.

The Pittsburgh Penguins meanwhile have been one of the NHL’s biggest disappointments through their opening seven games, and have offered up some of the leagues worst defensive play.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Oddsmakers gave the Penguins roughly a 50% chance of making the playoffs entering this season, and offered them a betting total of 92.5 points. Here we are seven games in, and suddenly the Penguins are already underdogs against a Flames team that was widely expected to pick near the top of the draft next June.

These teams enter this matchup at polar ends of the spectrum, as the Penguins have been one of the leagues most disorganized groups defensively, and long tenured coach Mike Sullivan is on the hot seat as a result.

The Penguins have allowed 3.95 xGA/60, which is the fourth worst mark in the NHL. The eye-test suggests that number has been a fair take towards their overall play, and the fact that their ugly defensive play has coincided with an .847 save % only makes matters worse.

Looking at the bright side, the Penguins have generated the second most expected goals for in the league.

The Penguins top-six still looks quite dangerous, especially given the way Evgeni Malkin has started the season. Malkin has put up 11 points through seven games skating on a potent second line alongside Michael Bunting and Rickard Rakell, and that unit holds a 61.5% expected goal share this season.

The Penguins powerplay was surprisingly awful last season, as they held a 30th ranked 15.3% success rate. Given the talent on hand it seemed likely that could be one area of improvement this year, and to this point it has been as they rank 10th with a 23.8% success rate.

The Penguins enter this matchup with a no notable injuries, as Matt Nieto, Blake Lizotte and Vasily Ponomarev are the only players on the IR.

Alek Nedeljkovic is expected to make his second start of the season in this matchup. He was left out to dry Sunday in his season debut versus Winnipeg, but took over the starter’s role last season with his excellent play down the stretch.

The Flames continue to be an easy team to root for this season, as they are overachieving expectations based on a hard-working, honest brand of hockey. Ryan Hruska’s group has allowed just 2.71 xGA/60 this season, and allowed only 2.4 goals against per game.

Out of the entire Flames roster, it’s hard to pick out more than one or two players who have offered disappointing play this year. While that is a clear positive, it’s also unlikely to see such consistency throughout an 82 game schedule.

Based on today’s morning skate the Flames will be keeping the same lineup we saw Saturday versus Seattle intact.

Dustin Wolf has been confirmed as the Flames starter in this matchup. He has put up a .944 save % in his first two starts of the year, after struggling to an .893 save % last season in 17 appearances.

It’s been an ugly start to the year for the Penguins, who have allowed 4.42 goals against per game and hold horrific defensive metrics. All four of their losses have come versus teams that will easily march into the playoffs though, and are priced among the favorites to win the Cup.

The Flames meanwhile have had a fairly soft schedule, especially considering that the Oilers and Canucks haven’t been overly dominant to this point.

The start of the season is highly volatile though; if you don’t believe me, dig into where teams stood one month into last season.  That’s not to say the Flames don’t deserve credit for their excellent start, but it’s fair to say that prior to the start of the season most sharper handicappers would have priced the Penguins around -130 in this matchup.

The talent among the Penguins roster is still greater than what the Flames are offering. It’s not overly fun to back them when things have looked so ugly at times this season, but at +105 I think the market is overreacting to a small sample of play.

As long as Jarry does not start this matchup for the Penguins, I would back them at anything better than -105. If Jarry does start, I would bet the over 6.5 at the current price of -115.