Despite their surprisingly dominant 5-0-1 start, the Calgary Flames are the second biggest underdog they have been this season in tonight’s match-up. That’s a testament to how odds-makers view Rod Brind’Amour’s Carolina Hurricanes side, who are off to a 3-2-0 start and once again look like a defensive juggernaut.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

There was a fairly wide discrepancy between the way odds-makers and mainstream media viewed Carolina entering this season after it lost a number of quality NHLers this summer.

Oddsmakers tabbed the Hurricanes with a betting total of 100.5 points, and still considered them heavy favourites to make the postseason, while more mainstream media considered them a trendy pick to miss the playoffs out of a competitive Metropolitan Division.

Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei, Teuvo Teravainen and Stefan Noesen each played 70 or more games for the Hurricanes last season, and all signed elsewhere in free agency. Carolina also was unable to sign deadline acquisition Jake Guentzel.

Shayne Gostisbehere and Sean Walker were savvy off-season pickups, though, and it’s entirely realistic that they will not downgrade the minutes that were played by Pesce and Skjei last season. That’s been the case so far, as in 61.2 minutes of even strength play they hold a 77.9% expected goal share, which is the best mark of any defensive tandem in the NHL with a sample of 30 minutes or more.

Gostisbehere has also done a good job of quarterbacking the Hurricanes’ top power-play unit, which has clicked 28.6% of the time this season. He’s put up five points in five games, including a goal in four straight. He’s still available in 35% of Yahoo fantasy leagues; keep that in mind if you are running a team.

Rod Brind’Amour’s side has looked true to form being one of the league’s most irritating sides to play against this season. Their forwards are arguably the best in the league at tracking back, which frees their defenders to step up aggressively on plays at the lines.

Through five games, they hold a 60.41% expected goal share and have allowed only 24.62 shots against per game.

Analytically speaking, the Hurricanes have scored less goals than expected in every season of the Brind’Amour era based on their quantity over quality offensive approach. They also haven’t typically featured much in the way of elite finishing talent on the roster, something which could still prove to be a flaw this season.

Frederik Andersen is listed as the probable starter in this match-up. He has played to a .939 save % and 1.65 GAA in three appearances this season.

The Flames showed great resiliency in stealing a shootout win Tuesday night over the Penguins, a game in which they were outshot 38-25. Per NaturalStatTrick, Calgary allowed 14 high danger chances against in that matchup, which tied its highest mark of the season.

The Flames opted to shake up their lines at today’s morning skate, as Martin Pospisil skated with Andrei Kuzmenko and Nazem Kadri on the top line, while Justin Kirkland centered Jonathan Huberdeau and Anthony Mantha. They should be at full health aside from the absences of Yegor Sharangovich and Sam Honzek, who both skated this morning.

Dan Vladar has been confirmed as the Flames starter in this match-up. He has played to an .890 save % and 2.63 GAA in three appearances this season.

At the opening price of -150, the Hurricanes held clear value in this match-up, which was something I outlined yesterday on our podcast.  The market has now corrected itself, as Carolina is now a heavy favourite at -200, which looks accurate to me.

The one angle that still looks worthy of a bet is backing Andrei Svechnikov to record a goal at +210. The Hurricanes’ top line of Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho, and Seth Jarvis is generating a 6.10 xG/60, and Svechnikov has also been getting plenty of looks on the top power-play unit.

Among NHL skaters that have played over 50 minutes, Svechnikov’s 25.91 shot attempts per 60 ranks fifth in the NHL. He has the shooting talent to pay off chances at a higher rate moving forward, and I’m still counting on him pushing past the 30-goal mark this season.