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The Flames learn their fate in the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery live drawing (5pm MT, SN)
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Photo credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan Pike
May 5, 2025, 14:00 EDTUpdated: May 5, 2025, 19:02 EDT
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The fate of one franchise will be changed on Monday night as the National Hockey League holds its annual draft lottery! And for the first time ever, the league is holding the lottery drawing as a live televised event!
The Calgary Flames missed the playoffs by tiebreakers. They could remain at 16th overall (and send that pick to Montreal to conclude the Sean Monahan trade). Or, perhaps, they could finally get some luck and win a draft lottery draw for the first time ever!
Find out what happens live at 5 p.m. MT on Sportsnet! Head on over to the FlamesNation YouTube channel around 4:50 p.m. MT, as we’ll be hosting a live watch-along!

The odds

Via the NHL, here are the odds in the first draw, assigned to the 16 non-playoff teams. Note that teams can only move up by 10 spots, so only the top 11 teams have a chance at first overall.
  1. San Jose – 18.5%
  2. Chicago – 13.5%
  3. Nashville – 11.5%
  4. Philadelphia – 9.5%
  5. Boston – 8.5%
  6. Seattle – 7.5%
  7. Buffalo – 6.5%
  8. Anaheim – 6.0%
  9. Pittsburgh – 5.0%
  10. NY Islanders – 3.5%
  11. NY Rangers – 3.0%
  12. Detroit – 2.5% [cannot draft higher than 2nd]
  13. Columbus – 2.0% [cannot draft higher than 3rd]
  14. Utah – 1.5% [cannot draft higher than 4th]
  15. Vancouver – 0.5% [cannot draft higher than 5th]
  16. Calgary – 0.5% [cannot draft higher than 6th]
(San Jose and Chicago have the best and second-best odds, respectively, for the second consecutive season.)
So here’s what to expect from the broadcast:
The NHL has a fancy machine that holds 14 numbered ping pong balls – numbered from 1 to 14 – with 1,001 possible number combinations. Each team is assigned random four-number combinations with the combinations proportionate to their draft odds – for instance, the Flames have 0.5% odds of winning, so they have five winning combinations – and there’s one combination that, if drawn, will result in a redraw. Four balls are drawn to determine which team drafts first overall, and then they replace the balls and draw four balls again for second overall. If on the second overall draw the winning combination is selected for the team that already won first overall, they draw again.
The five winning Flames combinations, for those wanting to follow along at home:
  • 1, 5, 9 and 12
  • 4, 5, 8 and 11
  • 5, 12, 13 and 14
  • 9, 10, 11 and 13
  • 9, 10, 12 and 13
The lottery drawing will only change the draft order for the first round. The remaining rounds will be determined by the usual method of using the regular season standings.

Possible Flames outcomes

Only two results are possible for the Flames at this year’s lottery.
6th overall – 1.1%
If the Flames win the first or second draw, they’ll move up by 10 spots and draft sixth overall. If this happens, Montreal will receive Florida’s first-round pick to satisfy the conditions of the August 2022 trade for Sean Monahan.
16th overall – 98.9%
If any other team wins the two draws, the Flames will stay put and be allocated the 16th overall pick. If this happens, this pick would transfer to Montreal to satisfy the conditions of the August 2022 trade for Sean Monahan.
Either way, we won’t need to think about the many, many trade conditions that tie up the Flames’ draft selections anymore after this year’s draft lottery drawings.
Where do you think the Flames will end up selecting in the first round? Let us know in the comments!
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