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Will the Flames’ lousy draft lottery luck finally turn on Monday night?
The first National Hockey League draft lottery was conducted in 1995, introducing a bit of chance into the system designed to allocate to the top picks in the annual entry draft to its worst teams to promote competitive balance.
Since the lottery was introduced, the Flames have participated in 17 of the 30 lotteries. A total of 21 traditional lottery draws have been conducted with the Flames as participants – excluding the non-traditional 2005 post-lockout draft lottery draw.
And the Flames have yet to win a single time.
On Monday night, the NHL will host a live draft lottery drawing for the first time (5 p.m. MT, Sportsnet). And with the slimmest odds they’ve ever faced, the Flames will cross their fingers and hope their lousy luck finally breaks.
Here’s a quick rundown of the Flames’ lottery draw history, from best odds to worst.
Odds | Year | Result |
10.7% | 2014 | Remained at 4th overall (drafted Sam Bennett) |
8.5% | 2016 | Dropped from 5th to 6th overall (drafted Matthew Tkachuk) |
6.2% | 2013 | Remained at 6th overall (drafted Sean Monahan) |
5.9% | 1997 | Remained at 6th overall (drafted Daniel Tkaczuk) |
5.7% | 1998 | Remained at 6th overall (drafted Rico Fata) |
5.0% | 2024 | Remained at 9th overall (drafted Zayne Parekh) |
4.2% | 2005 | After the 2004-05 lockout, weighed draws were held to determine the entire first round draft order (which then snaked for subsequent rounds). The Flames selected 26th overall, meaning they didn’t win the first 25 draws – their odds in the 26th draw escalated up to 35.6%. (Drafted Matt Pelech.) |
2.7% | 1999 2000 2002 2003 | Remained at 9th overall (traded down to 11th; drafted Oleg Saprykin) Remained at 9th overall (drafted Brent Krahn) Remained at 9th overall (traded down to 10th; drafted Eric Nystrom) Remained at 9th overall (drafted Dion Phaneuf) |
2.5% | 2018 | Remained at 12th overall (traded to NY Islanders) |
2.1% | 2021 | Remained at 13th overall (drafted Matt Coronato) |
1.5% | 2001 | Remained at 11th overall (traded down to 14th; drafted Chuck Kobasew) |
0.8% | 2010 2011 | Remained at 13th overall (traded to Phoenix) Remained at 13th overall (drafted Sven Baertschi) |
0.5% | 2012 2023 | Remained at 14th overall (traded down to 21st; drafted Mark Jankowski) Remained at 16th overall (drafted Samuel Honzek) |
The Flames are one of seven franchises that haven’t won a single lottery draw yet. The others are Detroit, Minnesota, Nashville, Utah, Vancouver and Vegas. The luckiest team in the lottery era is Chicago, who have won five different draws over the years.
The Flames head into Monday night’s drawing with pretty straightforward stakes:
- They have a 0.5% chance of winning the draw – five combinations of winning numbers out of 1,000 possible lottery draws – and if they win, their first-round pick upgrades from 16th overall to 6th overall. By the terms of their August 2022 trade with Montreal, the Flames would keep their first-round pick and Florida’s selection, around 22nd overall, would transfer to Montreal instead to complete that trade.
- They have a 99.5% chance of losing the draw – 995 combinations of losing numbers out of 1,000 possible draws – and their pick would remain at 16th overall and transfer to Montreal to complete that trade.
Odds are, the Flames won’t win the drawing, based on history and probability. But life and hockey can be weird as heck, so we’ll see how things end up unfolding.
Sponsored by bet365:
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