Surprising is probably the best word to describe the Calgary Flames’ 2024-25 campaign thus far. Through 22 games the Flames have gone 12-7-3 and sit in second place in the Pacific Division, just three points back of the division-leading Vegas Golden Knights.
After being projected to finish in the bottom 10 of the standings as a “retooling” team, the Flames have thrown the narrative that they can’t compete out of the window. It’s the week of American Thanksgiving and you know what they say about the NHL standings at this point in the year. If a team is in a playoff spot when American Thanksgiving comes around, they usually end up making the post-season.
When analyzing how well a team is doing it’s important to see what their schedule has been like and which teams they have had to face. For a team that was deemed an inferior one before the season started, any win would have been looked at as a positive regardless of whether or not it was against a team like the Dallas Stars or a team like the Montreal Canadiens. The Flames haven’t got to this record by just beating below-average teams and the fact that they have knocked off some very good teams is something that makes their record even more impressive.
Right off the bat, they came back down 4-1 against the Vancouver Canucks to pull off a 6-5 overtime win to open their season. Since then they have beaten the Edmonton Oilers, New Jersey Devils, Los Angeles Kings, New York Rangers, and Minnesota Wild. For this team to not only have a .614 points percentage but to be able to get past teams like these is nothing short of remarkable.
While this start is impressive on a basic level, the deeper you look into things the more concerning it gets.
The biggest factor in the Flames’ success so far has been their goaltending, especially the play of rookie sensation Dustin Wolf. Dan Vladar has been great and has been as solid as you can ask him to be with a .903 save percentage and 2.67 goals against average, but it has been Wolf, who in his first season in the NHL, continues to defy all odds and has been playing at an unbelievable level with an 8-3-1 record as well as a .921 save percentage and 2.47 goals against average. He has only lost one game in regulation in November and there is a reason why his name is now involved in the Calder Trophy race discussion.
If individual stats weren’t enough to prove just how well the Flames’ goaltending has been, then listen to this. The Flames have given up the eighth most shots out of any team in the league yet have given up the third least amount of goals at 5-on-5 in the league with 31. Out of the top eight teams who have given up the most shots so far this season, the Flames are one of two teams with a winning record and in a playoff spot. Furthermore, their 31 goals against are marginally lower than what their expected goals against are which is 42.02 and their team save percentage of shots on goal is a league-leading 94.06%. There are more underlying numbers and stats that could be pointed out to prove just how impactful Vladar and Wolf have been but the point is that this is the best goaltending tandem in the league right now and it is the biggest reason why the Flames have the record that they do.
Keeping the puck out of the net is half of the battle. While the Flames have figured out that part due to their goaltending and defensive system, their play at the other end of the ice hasn’t been all that great. To put it mildly, the Flames aren’t generating much offensively. If we are talking about generating shots then yes, as they have the 10th highest FF (any unblocked shot attempt (goals, shots on net and misses) with 748. It’s clear that the Flames have been focusing on shooting the puck and while getting the puck to the net is always a good idea it’s the lack of efficiency or finish that is the problem, as they have the third-worst shooting percentage in the league at 6.92%. PDO or “puck luck” as it’s commonly referred to would be another important thing to mention. Right now the Flames’ PDO is at 1.010 (10th overall).
So the Flames have one of the worst shooting percentages in the league but one of the highest PDO’s which can only mean one thing. While the Flames aren’t scoring on a high percentage of their shots, they are still experiencing a significant amount of “luck” due to their goaltenders making a high percentage of saves. It’s just another attest to how big of an impact both Wolf and Vladar have had on the Flames’ success.
What makes this even worse is that the Flames’ offensive capabilities are that they have produced 473 scoring chances (ninth most) but have only scored 28 goals off of scoring chances which just shows again how much trouble this team is having at putting the puck in the net.
Producing scoring chances is one thing but It’s generating quality chances that give teams the best opportunity to score goals. Generating these grade-A looks and more importantly, capitalizing on those quality chances is also something the Flames have struggled with. They have scored 35 goals at 5-on-5 which is the sixth-lowest in the league. The Flames’ 176 high-danger scoring chances for, rank in the bottom half of the league, and their 15 goals off of high-danger scoring chances is the fourth lowest. To make this even clearer, the Flames’ HDSH% (percentage of high-danger shots that resulted in goals) is currently sitting at 13.51% (fourth worst). The only teams that have a lower HDSH% are the Detroit Red Wings, San Jose Sharks, and Philadelphia Flyers, none of whom are above .500. A lot of the Flames’ offensive metrics are near the bottom of the league yet they have managed to remain near the top of their division. They aren’t generating much but they aren’t giving up a whole lot either.
Just from an eye test, it’s easy to point out that the Flames have grinded and clawed away at most of their games. Out of the 22 games they have played, 10 of them have been one-goal games, and what’s even more interesting is the fact that out of the 12 wins the Flames have collected, exactly half of them have been one-goal games. This isn’t a team that should be the fourth-best team in the Western Conference but it’s a team that will do anything but give up and with the help of some outstanding goaltending, the skaters for this group have been able to produce just enough to help out their goaltenders which is why the Flames are where they are right now.
The question going forward is, how realistic is it to expect their goaltending to be able to carry on like this while the offence produces just enough to scrape by? The truth is it isn’t and if the Flames don’t figure out a way to start producing offensively, they are going to get exposed. With the way the Flames are going if goaltending starts to drop at all, so will the Flames in the standings.
While this 12-7-3 record may look very good now, it’s important to realize that this isn’t a team firing on all cylinders. It’s a team that needs to figure out a few things if they hope to remain where they are.
