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The Flames try their luck at the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery (5pm MT, SN)
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Ryan Pike
May 5, 2026, 12:00 EDTUpdated: May 5, 2026, 00:10 EDT
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Somebody’s gotta win, why not the Calgary Flames?
The trajectory of one National Hockey League club could be changed forever on Tuesday evening as the National Hockey League conducts its annual draft lottery. For the second consecutive year, the actual lottery drawing will be conducted as a live television event – rather than being conducted in a closed room at NHL Studios and then announced on the broadcast a couple hours later.
The Calgary Flames finished 29th overall, finishing ahead of the New York Rangers on tiebreakers. They enter the lottery holding the fourth overall selection, and they could move up, down or stay put, depending on how 14 numbered ping-pong balls are pulled.
The Flames have never, ever won the lottery in their history. Maybe it’ll happen on Tuesday night?
Find out what happens live at 5 p.m. MT on Sportsnet! Head on over to the Barn Burner YouTube channel around 4:45 p.m. MT, as we’ll be hosting a live watch-along!

The odds

Via the NHL, here are the odds in the first draw, assigned to the 16 non-playoff teams. Note that teams can only move up by 10 spots, so only the top 11 teams have a chance at first overall.
  1. Vancouver – 18.5%
  2. Chicago – 13.5%
  3. NY Rangers – 11.5%
  4. Calgary – 9.5%
  5. Toronto – 8.5%
  6. Seattle – 7.5%
  7. Winnipeg – 6.5%
  8. Florida – 6.0%
  9. San Jose – 5.0%
  10. Nashville – 3.5%
  11. St. Louis – 3.0%
  12. New Jersey – 2.5% [cannot draft higher than 2nd]
  13. NY Islanders – 2.0% [cannot draft higher than 3rd]
  14. Columbus – 1.5% [cannot draft higher than 4th]
  15. St. Louis (from Detroit) – 0.5% [cannot draft higher than 5th]
  16. Washington – 0.5% [cannot draft higher than 6th]
So here’s what to expect from the broadcast:
The NHL has a fancy machine that holds 14 numbered ping pong balls – numbered from 1 to 14 – with 1,001 possible number combinations. Each team is assigned random four-number combinations with the combinations proportionate to their draft odds – for instance, the Flames have 9.5% odds of winning, so they have 95 winning combinations – and there’s one combination that, if drawn, will result in a redraw. Four balls are drawn to determine which team drafts first overall, and then they replace the balls and draw four balls again for second overall. If on the second overall draw the winning combination is selected for the team that already won first overall, they draw again.
Via the league, here are the 95 number combinations that would result in a Flames win:
The lottery drawing will only change the draft order for the first round. The remaining rounds will be determined by the usual method of using the regular season standings.

Possible Flames outcomes

The Flames could select anywhere between first overall and sixth overall! We have way too much detail here, but here’s the quick rundown:
1st overall – 9.5% – CGY wins first draw, can’t win second draw
2nd overall – 9.5% – one of the top 11 teams other than CGY wins first draw, CGY wins second draw
3rd overall – 0.3% – NJ wins first draw, CGY wins second draw
4th overall – 15.4% – one of the top 3 teams wins the first draw, one of the top 3 teams wins the second draw
5th overall – 44.6% – one of the teams between 5 to 14 wins one of the two draws
6th overall – 20.8% – one of the teams between 5 to 14 wins both of the draws
Where do you think the Flames will end up selecting in the first round? Let us know in the comments!

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