Man, it sure does seem like the Philadelphia Flyers are doing their level best to set the market for the Calgary Flames’ restricted free agents, doesn’t it?

After re-upping Tyson Foerster last week, the Flyers announced on Tuesday that they’ve signed Noah Cates to a four year extension with a $4 million AAV. Much like Foerster’s new deal carried possible impacts for Connor Zary, Cates’ signing could have implications for Morgan Frost’s next contract.

Cates turned 26 in Feburary, and he’s a left shot winger. He was a fifth-round pick, 137th overall, in the 2017 NHL Draft. He played a year of junior in the USHL and then four years of college at the University of Minnesota – Duluth before going pro at the end of the 2021-22 season. He’s played three full NHL seasons. He has 40 goals and 102 points over 235 NHL games.

Frost turned 26 in May, and he’s a left shot centre. He was a first-round pick, 27th overall, in the 2017 NHL Draft. He spent two seasons in junior with the OHL’s Soo Greyhounds after being selected. He went pro at the start of the 2018-19 season, but he bounced between the NHL and AHL before becoming a full-time NHLer in 2022-23. Like Cates, he’s played three full NHL seasons. He has 53 goals and 147 points over 302 NHL games.

Frost has played 67 more NHL games than Cates, but much of those were during the period where he was splitting time between the NHL and AHL. If you compare just their three full-time seasons, Cates had 35 goals and 93 points in 219 games, and Frost has 46 goals and 124 points in 233 games. On a per-game basis, Frost has an edge in goals (0.197 to 0.160) and points (0.532 to 0.425).

Weirdly enough, Cates and Frost had the same number of points in 2024-25, 37, though Cates scored two more goals than Frost and his production came in three fewer games than Frost.

When Foerster signed his new deal with the Flyers, it more or less set a ceiling for Zary’s next contract. When it comes to Cates, you could argue that his deal sets a floor for Frost’s. Cates received four seasons of $4 million per season, and he’s not a centre and he produces fewer goals and points per game than Frost. They’re fairly similar players in that they’re the same age and have been full-time NHL players for the same number of seasons.

But with Cates getting locked in at a $4 million cap hit, you could argue that Frost should probably be coming in a bit higher than that, perhaps in the neighbourhood of $4.5 million per season. The contract projections by the folks over at Evolving Hockey slot Frost in at four years at $5.106 million. That feels a bit high given Frost’s offensive production, but considering a four year deal would buy three seasons of free agency eligibility, perhaps that’s not a bad forecast.

Frost is slated to become a restricted free agent with arbitration rights on July 1. We’ll see how his next contract shakes out.