On Thursday night, the Calgary Flames made a trade sending Jakob Pelletier, Andrei Kuzmenko, a 2nd round pick, and a 7th round pick to the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for Joel Farabee and Morgan Frost.

Joel Farabee is a left shot winger that can play either side of the ice. He comes in at 6′ tall and 183 lbs. His contract runs a $5 million AAV through 2027-28. Philadelphia took him 14th overall in the 2018 draft after playing for the United States National Development Team. He spent the following year getting 36 points in 37 games for Boston University before going pro the next season.

(CF%, HDCF%, and xG% curtousy of NaturalStatTrick.com – 5v5 score and venue adjusted)

One thing I wanted to highlight while here – and I’ll dive into it more in the offence section – is that Farabee is showing a nice progression of improvement in xG and HDCF.

We will start off by looking at Farabee’s shooting locations and shooting history, we will then touch on his excellent finishing ability before discussing what could be limitations to his game.

Farabee doesn’t have the volume of shots you’d like to see from a consistent top 6 forward. He’s got decent speed and can get ahead of defenders. His real skill comes in his ability to finish off chances – the thing the Flames need more than anything up front. He doesn’t create a lot of the opportunities himself and will need to work with a quality centre to assist, but if given someone that can find him open Farabee has the ability to do damage.

Outside of this season Farabee has always finished his chances off at a rate higher than league average.

If you read the Frost piece you know that grey means you are outscoring the cumulative quality of your chances. Frosts weaved back and forth between red and grey but as we see here, until this season, Farabee was always well above average. He knows his way around the net.

One place he might struggle is the need to come backcheck on the Calgary Flames. The change of scenery will be welcomed by Farabee who had fallen out of favour in Philly  – there’s a reason he didn’t cost them a 1st round pick or a top prospect like Honzek or Basha. Farabee has that above average ability to score, but his ability to generate his own chances is minuscule and he can’t be trusted to properly defend top competition.

That being said my personal opinion is I would rather work on rehabbing and developing Farabee than I would Kuzmenko.

This is where things are not so friendly. Despite playing in a system where his numbers should be boosted by sheer participation they still look less than ideal. One good thing is he won’t ever be the primary defensive player on the ice in Calgary – they have more than an abundance of players that can cover for him.

The following chart shows a proficiency in the two offensive categories and deficiencies in the defensive categories summarized over a three season span.

Originally I projected him next to Kadri and Huberdeau. That could result in two things – either a lot of offence with a whole bunch of chances coming back the other way or just a whole bunch of chances coming back the other way. Ideally Farabee is a perfect fit next to Backlund and Coleman, but I’m not sure the appetite to move Coronato from them in the midst of a very successful offensive run.

Farabee was not as sheltered in his usage as Frost was, but still had a decided advantage in offensive zone starts in every year of his career so far. It’s not been crazy helpful though.

The Flyers – for instance – have an 11 per cent advantage in shot suppression with Farabee off the ice (xGA/60) vs. when he’s out there. If he was out there going toe-to-toe with Crosby consistently I would give him some leeway, but playing middle six minutes with PK time that ends up being too significant to ignore.

This was him at his peak value so far – just last season. There’s reason to believe the strong group the Flames have can get him to buy into what they are doing and get Farabee back to looking more like this than the other chart.

Anyways, don’t expect any Selke awards anytime soon.

Joel Farabee is certainly a project. His play the last few years comes in under the value of the contract he signed. Farabee is not going to be the one on the line to initiate a lot of the offence, but he can be the guy to finish it off. He’s in a slump right now but it’s an outlier compared to what he’s done the rest of his career.

Proper expectations should be 15 goal, 40 point seasons. If he gets hot and finds some chemistry he could dip back into 20-25 goal territory, but that would be the exception to the rule. He is still only 24 with some good developmental years left – maybe he can take another step and really own a solid spot in the Flames middle 6.

Right now I would utilize him more as a third line player than a second line one.