By 3 p.m. Calgary time on Saturday, William Nylander will either sign a contract for the 2018-19 season or sit out for the rest of the campaign. If he does sign (with the Toronto Maple Leafs or somebody else), his deal will provide a good ballpark for what to expect when Matthew Tkachuk becomes a restricted free agent on July 1, 2019. But for a few reasons, Tkachuk will probably get a heftier deal.
Tkachuk will have played more NHL games on his first deal
Nylander’s played parts of four North American pro seasons, splitting the 2014-15 season (his contractual 19-year-old “slide year”) between the AHL’s Toronto Marlies and the SHL’s MODO Hockey. He split the 2015-16 season between the Marlies and Leafs – not accumulating enough NHL experience to count as a “year of service” for the purpose of unrestricted free agency – and then spent 2016-17 and 2017-18 as a full-time NHLer.
Tkachuk went directly to the Flames and has stayed there ever since. As of Saturday night’s game, Tkachuk had played 170 NHL games and since Nylander only made 185 appearances for the Leafs on his entry-level contract, Tkachuk will definitely have more NHL skates to his credit when his deal expires.
Tkachuk has slightly better point production
Nylander has 135 points in 185 NHL games, for a 0.729 points-per-game pace. Tkachuk has 126 points in 170 NHL games, for a 0.741 points-per-game pace.
That said, Tkachuk is more reliant on special teams time for his production. Nylander has a higher proportion of his points at even strength than Tkachuk – 69.6% versus Tkachuk’s 68.3% – though their even strength points-per-game are extremely similar – 0.508 for Nylander, 0.506 for Tkachuk.
Tkachuk has slightly better goal production
Nylander has 48 goals in 185 NHL games, for a 0.259 goals-per-game pace. Tkachuk has 49 goals in 170 NHL games, for a 0.288 goals-per-game pace.
Nylander scores a higher proportion of his goals at even strength than Tkachuk – 68.8% versus 65.3% for Tkachuk – but Tkachuk scores at even strength at a high per-game rate – 0.188 versus Nylander’s 0.178.
Tkachuk arguably drives play more
Tkachuk has a higher Corsi For percentage than Nylander – 57.0% versus Nylander’s 52.6% – and a higher Relative Corsi percentage than Nylander – +6.5% versus Nylander’s +1.9%.
We can debate what those numbers precisely mean, but functionally what it means is that Tkachuk’s line has the puck more often than Nylander’s line (and more often relative to the other lines on both of their teams in that span).
Both players have had help
Tkachuk’s most frequent even strength linemates during his entry level years have been Selke candidate Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik, Norris contender Mark Giordano, and some combination of TJ Brodie and Dougie Hamilton. You can argue that it’s easy to look good when you’re surrounded by good players.
But Nylander has also played with some pretty good players. His most frequent even strength linemates are Zach Hyman, Auston Matthews, Jake Gardiner and Morgan Rielly. The depth of the Leafs during Nylander’s time has also been a plus for him, as it has allowed them to use him further down in the line rotations than the Flames have been able to use Tkachuk.
Tkachuk has had more challenging deployments
Playing with Backlund and Giordano has its downsides. Among Tkachuk’s most frequent forward opponents at even strength: Ryan Getzlaf, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Joe Pavelski, Anze Kopitar and Sidney Crosby. He’s started 43.4% of his shifts in the offensive zone.
Among Nylander’s most frequent even strength opponents: Sam Reinhart, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Frans Nielsen, Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist and Jakub Voracek. He’s started 52.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone.
Tkachuk has a good case for higher compensation
When you compare their roles, situations and performances during their entry level years, both Nylander and Tkachuk are very impressive young players.
But there are several small reasons why Tkachuk is arguably more important to the Flames’ success than Nylander is to the Leafs’. So whatever cap hit Nylander produces on his new deal, expect that to be the basis for Tkachuk’s camp to ask general manager Brad Treliving to give him a little bit more.
Look’s like turtle’s is gonna be around 8 mil, if he sign’s with the Flame’s. Overall he’s a better player than JG, Johnny has better puck handling skill’s but turtle’s is a more skilled overall player if you really think about it.
The Nylander contract shows you just how bad the Drisaddle contract really is……
$2 mil overpay….
WW
Could be but the flames will be paying a 48 point turtle the same as a 100 point MAN!
Who will CHIARELLI trade away for pennies on the dollar next?
RNH?
Drisaddle?
McDavid…..?
No other player has any trade value….
WW
I enjoy reading your your posts WW so I know you realize the flames don’t have 1 player of that calibre.
By “calibre” you surely mean “cap hit”
You mean other then both Tkachuk and Gaudreau having more points without the McDavid bump. Lol your way past nap time
Hmmm.
McDrysaddle 62 points
Byng & Johnny 58 points
Flames first in the division
Oilers out of the playoffs
I think I’ll take the Flames on this one.
Johnny & Byng are winners. Connor & Leo are…Oilers.
Byng and Johnny – less than $8MM
Drai and McD – $21MM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hahahahahahaha
You mean 100 point bottom? I think the German guy is the “man” in the relationship.
I hope we don’t trade for brady, he hurts me when moms not looking.
In a good way?
Typical El Cid. Always thinking with his anus
¿Crees de verdad en tus publicaciones asininas o estás aquí para darte un troll? Tkachuk es un talento generacional que cualquier equipo desearía tener. tu mi amigo eres un perdido.
In english…Do you truely believe your asinine posts or are you here simply to troll. Tkachuk is a generational talent that any team would love to have. You my friend are a loser.
Thank you for the translation Perra; my French language skills are not as good as they use to be…..
WW
That’s Spanish pal
Je déteste ton visage WW.
Great shot at perra! He desrves it. His french isn’t very good at all….looks more like Portuguese.
You’re hilarious!?
The answer is both. He is a troll but also an oilers so not smart when it comes to hockey
He put my Optimus Prime in dog poop. Dad thought it was funny.
K. That was a little funny. You still suck.
@pike
Why not wait a day before you post this. Then you have the actual numbers and something actual to write about.
We all know the deadline was today. Why jump the gun?
So Nylander is making $45 m over 6 years; by my simple math it makes his cap hit $7.5m; what am I missing when people say it is $6.9m? Here’s hoping that Tkachuk comes in somewhere near this in both regards to term and $; Tkachuk is IMO the more complete player but I think in some peoples eyes Willie gets the bump in flashy skill but I will still take Tkachuk; thank you very much.
41.4 / 6 = 6.9. Yea your maths off.
Nylander missed 25 games so the first year is pro-rated.
Tkachuk is better than Nylander, yes.
Flames’ payroll can’t afford Tkachuk to better than Nylander.
Sorry…did not update. Heat lose 6-4. Spending too much time spending talking with SydScout who visited for the game
Mid June 2019 The National News:
Pandemonium in Toronto tonight as the Leafs win their first Stanley Cup since 1967 and become the first Canadian team to bring the cup back home to Canada since the 1993 Montreal Canadiens once again prove that when something needs to get done in this country, Ontario or Quebec will get’er done.
I just lit some candles and had a chat with Harold Ballard, he said he’s never lifting his curse on the Leafs. Sorry 🙂
What the Nylander holdout showed me is that today’s young superstars are absolutely fearless when it comes to negotiating contracts, so they can and will withhold their services to get their demands met. Did Nylander’s camp really think they could score $9M a season? I sincerely doubt it.
Message for Tre here is not to try and screw around with Matty when the time comes to hammer out a contract. Tre needs to talk turkey with his biggest superstar and not be a turkey and try and use Matty’s RFA status to lowball the kid. Just as Nylander bolted from the Leafs rather than accepting a bad deal, Matty will do the same. I am not sure the Flames could lose Matty for the first 25 games of the year and still be flying high like the Leafs, so Tre had better not dick around with who many believe is the Flames’ “generational talent.”
Then he wouldn’t be Tre. Probably go with 6.75 for 5 or 6 knowing Tre.
Wrong.
Kyle Dubas sacked up an earned more respect around the league than winning a cup and being an idiot.
BT and Tkachuk is only the same situation in that there is a player and a GM and a contract.
This won’t be that.
Probably more of Shanahan than Dubas.
What is with this site and the redirects. Can no one at Flames Nation do anything? Makes every visit to the site an exercise in futility
10 million for THAT!?! Wow Dubas. You got taken to the cleaners.
Better win that cup this year cause you’ll never get close to it again.
Turtles gonna get 7 for sure based on Nylander deal.
I think Byng will (and should) reset the team’s individual internal cap. With rising salaries, it’s unrealistic to think that no one will ever make more than 6.95. I think Tre bings Byng in around 7-7.5. Raises the bar, but not so much that Johnny, Monny, etc. regret signing for what they did.