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Photo Credit: Provided by the Stockton Heat

Calgary Flames Prospect Update: a mid-season NHLe progress report

It’s a quiet week for the hockey world, with the majority of the Calgary Flames’ prospects off due to the holidays or COVID-19 protocol stoppages. Either way, we figured it’s a good time to look at each player’s offensive contributions in the context of their NHLe (NHL equivalent) progression.

Let’s dive in!

For the unfamiliar, NHLe is a method of roughly approximating what a player’s production in one league would translate to at the NHL level. It’s an approximation based on large data samples of players who played in those leagues and made the jump (or didn’t) to NHL success. Take them with a grain of salt, as they’re not meant to be predictions, but mere conversions meant to put a player’s current play in a broader context.

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F Jack Beck – Ottawa 67’s (OHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 OHL 12 17 37.52
2020-21 OHL
2019-20 OHL 56 19 8.99
2018-19 U16 GTHL 33 36 n/a
U16 AAA 73 74 n/a

Beck’s 18 and missed his entire draft year, but he’s made a massive jump in productivity from his Draft-1 year (when he was 16). It’s yet to be seen how he’ll be once he returned from injury, but the start to his season was superb.

D Jake Boltmann – University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish (NCAA)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 NCAA 17 8 12.85
2020-21 NCAA 19 0 0.00
USHL 6 0 0.00
2019-20 USHL 17 9 12.16
USHS 25 13 n/a
2018-19 USHL 8 1 2.87
USHS 44 19 n/a

Boltmann had a pretty rough Draft+1 year offensively in 2020-21, but he’s returned to his pre-draft form. He’s a stay-at-home guy ultimately, but he’s been pretty decent as a sophomore for the Irish.

F Lucas Ciona – Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 WHL 26 13 12.38
2020-21 WHL 23 13 14.00
AJHL 2 4 n/a
2019-20 WHL 53 13 6.07
2018-19 WHL 3 0 0.00
AJHL 2 1 n/a
CSSHL 29 27 n/a

Ciona’s producing this season at more or less the rate he was producing in his Draft year. It’d be nice to see a bit of progression, especially given his size and physical maturity compared to the younger WHL skaters he’s playing against.

RW Matt Coronato – Harvard University Crimson (NCAA)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 NCAA 11 12 25.05
2020-21 USHL 51 85 38.27
2019-20 USHL 45 40 20.41
2018-19 USHS 30 32 n/a
BEAST U16 8 8 n/a

Coronato’s production is down a bit, relatively-speaking, from his superb USHL draft year. That said, it’s natural for production to dip slightly when going into a higher level and he’s still producing at a high level. It’ll be interesting to see what the second half of this season and his entire sophomore year look like from an offensive standpoint.

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RW Walker Duehr – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 AHL 15 6 15.94
2020-21 AHL 5 0 0.00
NCAA 28 17 20.91
2019-20 NCAA 32 15 16.14
2018-19 NCAA 34 16 16.21

Duehr’s not destined to be a pro hockey star, but he’s really consistent when you look back at his production over this four year period.

LW Lucas Feuk – Vasby IK HK (HockeyEttan)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 HockeyAllsvenskan 10 2 6.51
HockeyEttan 11 8 n/a
2020-21 HockeyAllsvenskan 14 1 2.33
HockeyEttan 18 18 n/a
J20 Nationell 8 10 19.78
2019-20 HockeyAllsvenskan 29 2 2.25
J20 SuperElit 23 27 18.58
2018-19 HockeyAllsvenskan 5 0 0.00
J20 SuperElit 43 43 15.83
J18 Elite 5 8 n/a

Feuk has been a decent Swedish junior player and a wholly unremarkable Swedish pro.

C/RW Ryan Francis – Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 QMJHL 18 23 29.76
AHL 4 0 0.00
2020-21 QMJHL 36 50 36.39
2019-20 QMJHL 61 72 27.49
2018-19 QMJHL 64 32 11.64

Francis has shown really steady progression as a junior player. He’s rapidly catching up offensively this season after it was delayed a bit by a brief AHL stint.

RW/C Glenn Gawdin – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 AHL 21 24 45.55
2020-21 AHL 22 13 23.55
SL 1 0 n/a
2019-20 AHL 53 47 35.34
2018-19 AHL 64 38 23.66

Gawdin’s one of the older prospects in the system, and he’s destined to become a Group 6 free agent and leave the organization this summer. But he’s been a really consistently strong AHLer, with only a minor blip in the pandemic season where he bounced around the system a bit.

LW Emil Heineman – Leksands IF (SHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 SHL 29 12 20.22
2020-21 SHL 43 13 14.78
J20 Nationell 1 0 0.00
2019-20 SHL 11 2 8.89
J20 SuperElit 29 41 22.37
2018-19 J20 SuperElit 27 5 2.93
J18 6 6 n/a

He’s a role player in the SHL right now, but Heineman has shown really nice progression from his rookie SHL season.

C Cole Huckins – Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 QMJHL 24 22 21.35
2020-21 QMJHL 33 32 22.58
2019-20 QMJHL 64 38 13.83
2018-19 MPHL 18 27 n/a

It would’ve been nice to see Huckins take a bigger offensive step in his Draft+1 year, but he’s one of the more consistent players in the Flames system right now.

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D Cole Jordan – Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 WHL 7 2 7.08
2020-21 WHL 23 10 10.77
2019-20 WHL 38 7 4.56
2018-19 MMHL 48 44 n/a
MJHL 2 0 n/a

Scouts love Jordan because of his smarts and skating, but his offensive output has yet to really explode. Here’s hoping the second half of his WHL season sees him stay healthy and live up to the potential that many believe that he has.

LW/C Rory Kerins – Soo Greyhounds (OHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 OHL 26 44 44.82
2020-21 AHL 4 0 0.00
2019-20 OHL 64 59 24.42
2018-19 OHL 57 23 10.69

It’s hard not to be impressed with Kerins’ offensive step forward in his Draft+2 season after playing just four games in his Draft+1 year.

D Johannes Kinnvall – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 AHL
2020-21 SHL 32 22 33.60
2019-20 SHL 51 40 38.33
2018-19 SHL 52 22 20.68

Kinnvall is nearing a return from a gnarly pre-season injury. Hopefully he can produce anywhere close to what his last few seasons suggests he has in him.

LW Justin Kirkland – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 AHL 22 8 14.49
2020-21 AHL 16 7 17.44
2019-20 AHL 53 28 21.05
2018-19 AHL 75 30 15.94

Kirkland is reliable depth in the AHL. But given his age and his (lack of) offensive progression, he’s probably topped out. He’s set to become a Group 6 free agent this summer.

RW Demetrios Koumontzis – Arizona State University Sun Devils (NCAA)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 NCAA 20 9 12.29
2020-21 NCAA 22 10 12.41
2019-20 NCAA 25 8 8.74
2018-19 NCAA 35 20 15.60

Koumontzis hasn’t been a huge needle-mover offensively in college, with his NHLe peaking in his freshman year.

D Yan Kuznetsov – Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 QMJHL 4 3 19.86
AHL 12 0 0.00
2020-21 AHL 6 0 0.00
NCAA 16 6 12.08
2019-20 NCAA 34 11 10.43
2018-19 USHL 34 4 2.70

It’s probably not fair to draw any conclusions from four QMJHL games, but hopefully they can continue some nice offensive progression for Kuznetsov since his Draft-1 season.

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D Connor Mackey – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 AHL 23 14 24.26
2020-21 AHL 27 16 23.62
2019-20 NCAA 36 24 22.96
2018-19 NCAA 42 25 20.50

Mackey has been, production-wise, just as good in the AHL as he was in college. It’s actually pretty remarkable how consistent he’s been given he’s jumped right into pro hockey during a pandemic.

C Mitchell Mattson – Michigan State University Spartans (NCAA)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 NCAA 10 2 5.46
2020-21 NCAA 21 4 5.20
2019-20 NCAA 22 1 1.24
2018-19 NCAA 14 0 0.00

Seven points over four seasons of college hockey.

C Ilya Nikolaev – Tri-City Storm (USHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 USHL 21 19 20.77
2020-21 VHL 37 13 n/a
MHL 21 18 n/a
2019-20 MHL 53 32 n/a
NMHL 2 1 n/a
2018-19 MHL 41 25 n/a
NMHL 3 2 n/a

It’s hard to put your finger on Nikolaev because he’s played in one league over the past four years that has produced enough NHL players to have an actual NHLe. But he’s been pretty good for Tri-City.

C Josh Nodler – Michigan State University Spartans (NCAA)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 NCAA 18 11 16.69
2020-21 NCAA 27 11 11.12
2019-20 NCAA 36 8 6.07
2018-19 USHL 54 42 17.86

Nodler has made some nice progress in college, though his offensive production is still somewhat modest relative to other college players.

LW Jakob Pelletier – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 AHL 23 27 46.78
2020-21 QMJHL 28 43 35.76
2019-20 QMJHL 57 82 33.50
2018-19 QMJHL 65 89 31.89

We’ve said this a lot, but it’s hard not to be impressed with Pelletier. Usually you see a production dip when a player, even a really good one, jumps from junior to the pros. But Pelletier has gotten significantly better.

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LW Emilio Pettersen – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 AHL 20 6 11.96
2020-21 AHL 29 14 19.24
2019-20 NCAA 36 35 33.48
2018-19 NCAA 40 30 25.83

Pettersen had the “going pro dip” last season, and his numbers have eroded a bit more this season.

RW Matthew Phillips – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 AHL 20 21 41.84
2020-21 AHL 30 21 27.90
2019-20 AHL 38 33 34.61
2018-19 AHL 65 38 23.30

Phillips is a very good AHL player. If the worst thing you can say about him is “Well, his production dipped during the pandemic…” you know he’s been productive.

C Luke Philp – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 AHL 23 14 24.26
2020-21 AHL 30 17 22.58
2019-20 AHL 52 31 23.76
2018-19 USports 24 45 n/a

Philp is basically the forward version of Connor Mackey, in that his production is consistent over the past few seasons.

D Jérémie Poirier – Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 QMJHL 30 32 24.84
2020-21 QMJHL 33 37 26.11
2019-20 QMJHL 64 53 19.29
2018-19 QMJHL 61 21 8.02

Poirier has remained a consistently productive offensive defender over the past few seasons, though one would hope for a bit more progression since being drafted.

D Colton Poolman – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 AHL 20 4 7.97
2020-21 AHL 21 6 11.39
2019-20 NCAA 31 17 19.74
2018-19 NCAA 35 17 17.48

Poolman has developed into a wholly unremarkable (from an offensive standpoint) defender.

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RW Martin Pospisil – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 AHL 15 10 26.57
2020-21 AHL 14 11 31.31
Slovakia 22 17 n/a
2019-20 AHL 26 10 15.33
2018-19 USHL 44 63 32.87

If only he could stay healthy. After his initial “going pro dip,” Pospisil has shown some steady offensive progression.

C Adam Ruzicka – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 AHL 13 16 49.05
2020-21 AHL 28 21 29.89
2019-20 AHL 54 27 19.93
2018-19 OHL 65 78 31.78

Ruzicka had his “going pro dip,” followed by three seasons of pretty nice progression. He’s in the NHL now, albeit on a recall.

D Ilya Solovyov – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 AHL 15 4 10.63
2020-21 KHL 41 9 14.47
Belarus 1 1 n/a
2019-20 OHL 53 40 19.99
2018-19 Belarus 53 8 n/a

On one hand, Solovyov has taken small steps backward offensively over the past few seasons. On the other hand, he’s moved into progressively tough leagues in that span so that step backward makes a lot of sense.

LW William Strömgren – Rögle BK (J20 Nationell)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 J20 Nationell 29 23 12.55
SHL 1 0 0.00
2020-21 J20 Nationell 14 18 20.35
HockeyAllsvenskan 27 9 10.85
HockeyEttan 11 12 n/a
J18 1 3 n/a
2019-20 J20 SuperElit 10 7 11.08
J18 31 46 n/a
2018-19 J18 2 3 n/a
J16 30 45 n/a

Strömgren has bounced around a lot over the past few seasons and his offensive production seems to have taken a step back this season.

RW Eetu Tuulola – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 AHL 18 8 17.71
2020-21 AHL 29 7 9.62
HockeyAllsvenskan 11 4 11.84
Liiga 4 0 0.00
2019-20 AHL 50 23 18.33
2018-19 Liiga 60 36 22.24

Tuulola is offensively about where he was two seasons ago.

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D Cameron Whynot – Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 QMJHL 28 15 12.48
2020-21 QMJHL 34 23 15.75
2019-20 QMJHL 57 9 3.68
2018-19 NSMMHL 35 40 n/a

Whynot is about where he was offensively last season.

C Connor Zary – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 AHL 15 8 21.25
2020-21 AHL 9 7 31.00
WHL 15 24 39.62
2019-20 WHL 57 86 37.36
2018-19 WHL 63 67 26.34

Zary’s catching up offensively after a slow, injury-delayed start to the AHL season. He showed really steady progress over the prior three seasons.

RW Dmitry Zavgorodniy – HC Sochi (KHL)

Season League GP Pts NHLe
2021-22 KHL 5 2 26.37
AHL 6 0 0.00
2020-21 KHL 6 3 32.96
AHL 29 4 5.50
2019-20 QMJHL 40 67 39.01
2018-19 QMJHL 67 64 22.25

Zavgorodniy has a small KHL sample, so it’s hard to judge yet. He’s a so-so AHLer, but was a great junior player.

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